rcknfrewld
Active member
The Greenbriar Resort in West Virginia looked awesome on tv Sunday...PGA tour event was there...would experience all four seasons there for sure
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Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
rcknfrewld
Active member
I could see the Dow at those levels but how would inflation look as well...a loaf of bread used to be 5 cents, now it's over 2$...is it death by a thousand cuts...meaning the prices will rise so minutely over time that we won't notice or mind that milk will be 8$ a gallon....will 8$ a gallon feel just like 3$ today...ho hum no big whoop...how do we put a stop to this
Tsunami
Well-known member
Looks nice and would score high on my handy dandy retirement spot comparison checklist, but would also score very low in categories like being near lots of shopping, entertainment, and medical care. We need to be near a VA clinic, and near my wife's family in Titusville.....but not too near 
Viera is about 40 minutes south, a nice buffer but close enough, and has everything any retiree could need nearby. Per the NOAA website there's only been one major hurricane in that region in the last 150+ years too....one of the reasons NASA chose Cape Canaveral. If we can afford it we'd also love a 2nd place (small, even a townhome) in the Puget Sound region of Washington to enjoy during the summer/fall each year.
Viera is about 40 minutes south, a nice buffer but close enough, and has everything any retiree could need nearby. Per the NOAA website there's only been one major hurricane in that region in the last 150+ years too....one of the reasons NASA chose Cape Canaveral. If we can afford it we'd also love a 2nd place (small, even a townhome) in the Puget Sound region of Washington to enjoy during the summer/fall each year.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Yep, I think it's likely that inflation will take off to get the index's to those levels. So nobody will be doing all that well unless you're lucky enough to sidestep (or better yet go short) the next major downdraft first.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Food for thought from a blog I follow...
"Today, the S&P 500 is sitting a full 30% above its
200-weekly moving average. We have NEVER been
this overextended above this line at any point in
the last 20 years.
Indeed, if you compare where the S&P 500 is relative
to this line, we’re even MORE overbought that we were
going into the 2007 peak at the top of the housing bubble."
Even so, I think this rally has legs that will last another 2 to 4 weeks, up to 1750ish...then watch out.
"Today, the S&P 500 is sitting a full 30% above its
200-weekly moving average. We have NEVER been
this overextended above this line at any point in
the last 20 years.
Indeed, if you compare where the S&P 500 is relative
to this line, we’re even MORE overbought that we were
going into the 2007 peak at the top of the housing bubble."
Even so, I think this rally has legs that will last another 2 to 4 weeks, up to 1750ish...then watch out.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Tsunami
Well-known member
A rare speach by the Pit Bull...
Video: Marty Schwartz at Amherst College, Spring 2013 ~ Frequency
Video: Marty Schwartz at Amherst College, Spring 2013 ~ Frequency
Tsunami
Well-known member
Two big Fed purchases Monday will keep this train going to the low 1800's next week. Only small pullbacks in sight for the rest of this year....the next one should start by the end of next week and retest the 1775-80 breakout.
Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Funny....
"The big news after the close yesterday was the announcement that Janet Yellen will be marrying Brian Anscreamin, and she has decided to hyphenate her last name, so she will henceforth be known as Janet Yellen-Anscreamin. This bullish news is probably good for at least another 1000 SPX points."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Funny....
"The big news after the close yesterday was the announcement that Janet Yellen will be marrying Brian Anscreamin, and she has decided to hyphenate her last name, so she will henceforth be known as Janet Yellen-Anscreamin. This bullish news is probably good for at least another 1000 SPX points."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Tsunami
Well-known member
Tuesday is one of 3 days in December almost guaranteed to be positive, and could be the kickoff of a wave 3 of 3 up:
Whatever You Do, Don't Short Stocks On These Three Days In December | Zero Hedge
Whatever You Do, Don't Short Stocks On These Three Days In December | Zero Hedge
Tsunami
Well-known member
What a year! 2014 won't be quite so easy. My 2014 guess is for a significant peak somewhere between mid-January to early-May 2014, a ~15% correction (not nearly as much of a meltdown as my poor WSU Cougars experienced in the New Mexico Bowl, I was there, how painful that was 
), then the bull resumes with another powerful 40%+ move into mid-2016. With some luck and good timing 20% gains are possible in 2014, but the buy and hold 30%+ gains of 2013 look improbable.
Bull Market Could Last Several More Years | Stock Market Blog - Financial Blog - Investment Blog - Technical Analysis Blog
), then the bull resumes with another powerful 40%+ move into mid-2016. With some luck and good timing 20% gains are possible in 2014, but the buy and hold 30%+ gains of 2013 look improbable. Bull Market Could Last Several More Years | Stock Market Blog - Financial Blog - Investment Blog - Technical Analysis Blog
Tsunami
Well-known member
Fits my 2014 view perfectly, but I don't think the 2014 "melt down" will be the big tsunami that's coming in a couple years after the next big melt up...
"research by Ned Davis which shows that mid-term election years (i.e. the second year of a presidential term) show an average decline of 21% going back to 1934. “But,” adds Davis,” “after the low was hit in those years, the market, on average, gained 60% over two years. So a correction [in 2014] should be followed by a great buying opportunity.” This assessment jibes with the 120-year Kress cycle view which suggests a major bounce-back following the cycle’s bottom in late 2014. For now the bulls still carry the day on Wall Street. Look for this state of affairs to reverse at some point in 2014 after the last of the bears have capitulated and joined the bulls."
A Melt-Up, Then a Melt-Down in 2014 | Clif Droke | FINANCIAL SENSE
"research by Ned Davis which shows that mid-term election years (i.e. the second year of a presidential term) show an average decline of 21% going back to 1934. “But,” adds Davis,” “after the low was hit in those years, the market, on average, gained 60% over two years. So a correction [in 2014] should be followed by a great buying opportunity.” This assessment jibes with the 120-year Kress cycle view which suggests a major bounce-back following the cycle’s bottom in late 2014. For now the bulls still carry the day on Wall Street. Look for this state of affairs to reverse at some point in 2014 after the last of the bears have capitulated and joined the bulls."
A Melt-Up, Then a Melt-Down in 2014 | Clif Droke | FINANCIAL SENSE
coolhand
Well-known member
I can see that happening. Now if we can just pick the top. I've heard one to six months for the correction. I would think "they" would want to have it well out of the way prior to the upcoming elections.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
Link is to a report about a recent PBS piece mentioning that the Fed sees its job as talking up and pushing up the market. We al knew that of course. Anyone think they will lose control in 2014? How? PBS Drops a Bombshell on the Federal Reserve
Tsunami
Well-known member
Worthwhile reading from Jeff Saut in his weekly commentary for this week:
" I enter the new year in line with Dow Theory, believing the primary trend of the stock market is “up.”"
"If the Fed expands its balance sheet by another 12% over the coming year, it is conceivable the SPX could increase by another 12%."
"As we begin 2014, I think the rally extends without much of a pullback. In fact, my sense is we could travel into the 1900 – 2000 zone on the SPX before succumbing to any meaningful correction...... If the markets remain on their current path, excessive optimism should arrive in the February – April timeframe. At that point, the equity market should become vulnerable to a more meaningful decline." (this fits my view perfectly)
"growth stocks should outperform value stocks...This growth theme favors the Information Technology and Healthcare sectors." (boy have I loved my chunk of IBB this year!!)
"The call for this week: Once again, over the weekend I read that, at 58 months, this rally is too long and can’t continue. But, they are measuring it from the March 2009 “nominal low.” We don’t measure the 1982 to 2000 secular bull market from its “nominal low” of December 1974, but rather from its “valuation low” of August 1982. If we measure this bull move from its “valuation low” of October 2011, the current rally is 26 months long, not 58 months. Merry New Year!"
Raymond James Financial | Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut
I would love another 12% in 2014. Frankly, I'm amazed with my ridiculous 28 IFT's in 2013, and only being in stocks for 43% of the year's trading days, that I reached nearly 32% this year...four times my annual goal of 8%. A big Booyah to 2013!! For my New Year's resolution for 2014, I'll try to cut it to 24 IFT's.
" I enter the new year in line with Dow Theory, believing the primary trend of the stock market is “up.”"
"If the Fed expands its balance sheet by another 12% over the coming year, it is conceivable the SPX could increase by another 12%."
"As we begin 2014, I think the rally extends without much of a pullback. In fact, my sense is we could travel into the 1900 – 2000 zone on the SPX before succumbing to any meaningful correction...... If the markets remain on their current path, excessive optimism should arrive in the February – April timeframe. At that point, the equity market should become vulnerable to a more meaningful decline." (this fits my view perfectly)
"growth stocks should outperform value stocks...This growth theme favors the Information Technology and Healthcare sectors." (boy have I loved my chunk of IBB this year!!)
"The call for this week: Once again, over the weekend I read that, at 58 months, this rally is too long and can’t continue. But, they are measuring it from the March 2009 “nominal low.” We don’t measure the 1982 to 2000 secular bull market from its “nominal low” of December 1974, but rather from its “valuation low” of August 1982. If we measure this bull move from its “valuation low” of October 2011, the current rally is 26 months long, not 58 months. Merry New Year!"
Raymond James Financial | Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut
I would love another 12% in 2014. Frankly, I'm amazed with my ridiculous 28 IFT's in 2013, and only being in stocks for 43% of the year's trading days, that I reached nearly 32% this year...four times my annual goal of 8%. A big Booyah to 2013!! For my New Year's resolution for 2014, I'll try to cut it to 24 IFT's.
I would love another 12% in 2014. Frankly, I'm amazed with my ridiculous 28 IFT's in 2013, and only being in stocks for 43% of the year's trading days, that I reached nearly 32% this year...four times my annual goal of 8%. A big Booyah to 2013!! For my New Year's resolution for 2014, I'll try to cut it to 24 IFT's.
Tsunami, That's doing pretty good, 28 moves and almost 32% for the year. I thought "wow" 28 IFT's that's a lot of IFT's, so I did a little checking. You barely made the top 20 IFT'ers for 2013. Five of you are tied at #18 with 28 IFT's for the year. The number one IFT'er for 2013 goes to Klear at 53.
Have a great 2014.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Thanks....Yep, as you'd expect, as you scroll down through the Tracker you can see how more trading leads to lower returns in general....so maybe I should get some sort of special award for the best return with over 24 IFT's. :laugh:
Boy what a battle for the top spot it's been with Remark (and perhaps that whole group of S funders right behind him) apparently going to overtake JMoody on the very last day of the year and win the #1 spot. Does Remark ever post? I would love to hear some of his/her "secrets". Pretty amazing, and telling, that out of over 1000 folks listed on the tracker only one person will beat the S fund!!
Tsunami
Well-known member
If today is any indication then this ratio may have finally bottomed and mining stocks will be one of the big stories for 2014:
$XAU:$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Today's pullback in stocks was just 3 waves. No worries. There could be a second similar drop to scare more weak hands (a drop to 1818.4 would be a normal 38% correction), but new highs are coming soon.
$XAU:$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Today's pullback in stocks was just 3 waves. No worries. There could be a second similar drop to scare more weak hands (a drop to 1818.4 would be a normal 38% correction), but new highs are coming soon.
Tsunami
Well-known member
From Jeffrey Saut on 1/13/14: Raymond James Financial | Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut
"Circling back to the January Barometer, every year at this time I not only address said indicator, but the “December Low Indicator” that I learned from my friend Lucien Hooper. It was back in the early 1970s, when I was working on Wall Street, that I encountered Lucien. At that time Lucien Hooper, then in his 70s, was considered one of the savviest “players” in this business. While known for many market axioms and insights, the one that stuck with me was Lucien’s “December Low Indicator.” It seems like only yesterday we were sitting at “Harry’s at the Amex Bar & Grill” having lunch when he explained it. “Jeff,” he began, “Forget all the noise you hear about the January Barometer, pay much more attention to the December low. That would be the lowest closing price for the INDU during the month of December. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!” For the record that closing low was 15739.43 and was recorded on 12/12/13."
The Dow is less than 1% above that December low now.
Also, from John Hussman: Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash - December 30, 2013 Right on cue the market is entering the cliff-dive phase of that computer generated bubble/crash model from Didier Sornette.
Having said that, if things don't fall apart this week I think the markets have another rally to new highs coming lasting 1 to 3 months....then a higher cliff dive.....but not a "crash"....perhaps 10-12% max.
"Circling back to the January Barometer, every year at this time I not only address said indicator, but the “December Low Indicator” that I learned from my friend Lucien Hooper. It was back in the early 1970s, when I was working on Wall Street, that I encountered Lucien. At that time Lucien Hooper, then in his 70s, was considered one of the savviest “players” in this business. While known for many market axioms and insights, the one that stuck with me was Lucien’s “December Low Indicator.” It seems like only yesterday we were sitting at “Harry’s at the Amex Bar & Grill” having lunch when he explained it. “Jeff,” he began, “Forget all the noise you hear about the January Barometer, pay much more attention to the December low. That would be the lowest closing price for the INDU during the month of December. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!” For the record that closing low was 15739.43 and was recorded on 12/12/13."
The Dow is less than 1% above that December low now.
Also, from John Hussman: Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash - December 30, 2013 Right on cue the market is entering the cliff-dive phase of that computer generated bubble/crash model from Didier Sornette.
Having said that, if things don't fall apart this week I think the markets have another rally to new highs coming lasting 1 to 3 months....then a higher cliff dive.....but not a "crash"....perhaps 10-12% max.
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