Tsunami's Account Talk

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It's amazing how precise the market can be sometimes....
http://eminiaddict.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2012crash_001.png
I've been reading a whole lot of very bearish market crash predictions lately (like today's commentary on that same website...and most of the Elliott wave guys)...which means there's undoubtedly a lot of people with big short positions...don't know if the stats "bear" that out but it could mean the market confounds the bears yet again and rockets higher soon.
 
Now that was indeed a good read - I've been watching Peter Eliades for many years and he should be taken seriously. "Many market elements have come together to suggest we are in a time zone and a price zone to be looking for a potentially important top. No negative divergence on the advance decline line, yet." There has never been a time since 1926 where a bear market has begun without the NYSE A/D line diverging first and that has not happened. As the article points out the A/D line put in a new all time high on January 10th. Staying long and strong. I wanted to mention that I appreciate the fact that you take the time to be well read - a definite plus to watch you.
 
Thanks. I definitely do read a LOT about the markets. Eliades is essentially retired, but he still issues reports once every month or two that are posted here, and there are some other good links here as well:
http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/comindex.php#pesc
I see that Peter's line in the sand was just broken, but I think he goes by closing prices so there's still a chance he could be right....it looks doubtful though.

Chris Ciovaccio has been on the right side of things and has been consistently bullish since the November low. I like following his Twitter feed and watching his weekend videos...
https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital
 
As the man said - "If you think we are in the midst of animal spirits as primary motivation of this market, then this move so far is peanuts." I think I may buy a position in IEO.
 
I was looking back through my old links last night and found this one by Tom McClellen, one of the best technical gurus out there. Then I did my own chart to see if it was relevant. Boy was it. The indicator reached above +40 Monday with the big sell off and VIX spike, and anyone on the sidelines waiting for that pullback to get in (like me) could have jumped on this Tuesday…I did get back in Tuesday based on other indicators, but in the future I’ll try to remember this anytime panic suddenly hits and the VIX spikes. If history repeats yesterday may have been equivalent to the big rally that started 2013 with a bang, but I don’t think this one will be as persistent/long. Time will tell.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/vix_rate_of_change_more_important_than_its_level/ http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07124606745

This guy has been accurate lately. Check his 1/25/13 chart..he predicted the next peak would be 1531..bingo...then a wave 4 down to 1480ish...bingo...next up is a wave 5 to 1551ish... if he gets that one right I might have to raise him to God-like status. Then after that his predictions will be horribly wrong LOL... :)
 
The forum seems quiet lately....everyone lulled to sleep by the market melt-up maybe...might be time to wake up as a deeper pullback may be very near...just a sampling of warnings from blogland...

The wave trading | Otro sitio realizado con WordPress

Channels and Patterns

Daneric's Elliott Waves: Elliot Wave Update ~ 1 April 2013

Market Timing Update

Elliott Wave Predictions - Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

Long Term SP-500 View « PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Kimble Charting Solutions Blog » Fed Ex sending a signal to “Exit” the markets ?

I'm not saying the next big tsunami is about to hit, not yet anyway, just a more decent pullback/correction is likely near.
 
It will be interesting to see if this small H&S pattern pans out. 1538ish needs to hold then a bounce back up to fill todays gap would be the right shoulder. That would open the trap door down to 1500. There's a larger H&S pattern in play at that point.
http://www.thewavetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/SPX-DAILY-ZOOM1.png

F fund has broken it's down trend, while the S&P has finally broken it's uptrend line...
AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
(taken from https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital)
 
Tsunami said:
It will be interesting to see if this small H&S pattern pans out. 1538ish needs to hold then a bounce back up to fill todays gap would be the right shoulder. That would open the trap door down to 1500. There's a larger H&S pattern in play at that point.
http://www.thewavetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/SPX-DAILY-ZOOM1.png

F fund has broken it's down trend, while the S&P has finally broken it's uptrend line...
AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
(taken from https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital)
Click to expand...

Looks like this scenario is still in play, nice charts, you've been holding out on us...
 
Hope things went well for you today JTH. That H&S pattern is on life support at this point, but a wave C down from here is possible. It just wouldn't be as deep, maybe only 1530ish per PUG's update:
https://twitter.com/thewavetrading

Long Term SP-500 View « PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Any gold/silver mining stocks fans out there? Man they are sure oversold. A "generational" buying opportunity per Casey Research.... here's a 30 year chart of the XUI versus Gold:
$XAU:$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
 
At 1593, the S&P finally just reached the upper trend line on the long term "megaphone" pattern....and blew right through it like butter...no fear!
emo26.gif


http://www.thewavetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/SPX-MONTHLY.png
 
I've been watching Tom's 1987 crash analog with some mild interest, but not expecting it to actually happen....
...but after just reading this, yikes, this looks worse than the bird flu....:sick:

Serious Trouble Erupts in China

I think the worst case scenario is a drop to the low 1500's in the next few weeks, but am sure glad for my lucky timing to jump to the lilly pad two days ago.
 
Spent last week in central Florida researching retirement possibilities (loved Viera on the east/central coast the best)..... I must have gotten too close to BT and I've caught some strange bullish virus. I think the possibility of a deeper correction is over. The S&P is heading to 1750 - 1775 in the next couple months, then another harmless pullback, then it's up to 1900ish next year or in 2015 before we finally see the big panicky bear market correction that everyone is fearing now...then by 2018 it's up up and away in a huge wave 3 during the 2020's....kinda like this guy sees:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-hit-60-000-20-124549767.html
 
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