Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

I thought this was an interesting read....

Timing Major Market Peaks | S O L A R C Y C L E S

If you take that tendency for major market peaks near new moons, I see there's a new moon on April 28th....

Plus in recent years the markets have been moved by FOMC meetings like no other event, and there's a Fed meeting on April 30th.....

Plus the bullish Elliott wave counts which I favor suggest we've just kicked off a rally that could last into late April....

Hmm, sounds like it could be a typical "sell in May and go away" kind of year, and that's when we'll get the ~10% correction all the experts were screaming about on TV the last few days, not now.

Oh...and here's a chart I like. Today it shows that we achieved Step 2 in buy signals for the S&P in all three indicators with the VIX, NYMO, and S&P all closing back within their bollinger bands. This is a good tool for timing and suggests the market is heading higher.

Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Impressive market today considering the Apple disaster. Looks like I'll move up to about #12 in the tracker today, a record for me and I'll need to take a screen shot for my vanity's sake.

 

[Whipsaw]

Tsunami! You're horning in on TSPIntel's territory with the moon phases! :nuts:

 

[Bravo Sierra]

From Jeffrey Saut on 1/13/14: Raymond James Financial | Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut

"... pay much more attention to the December low. That would be the lowest closing price for the INDU during the month of December. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!” For the record that closing low was 15739.43 and was recorded on 12/12/13."

Close today: 15,738.79
Todays close, while not a flagrant violation, counts as at least a touch, bears watching (pun intended).


U in ABQ 2, Tsu?

 

[MaStA]

ABQ as in Albuquerque? I'm stationed down at Holloman in Alamogordo...not the best place in the world, but I suppose it could be worse.

 

[Bquat]

Now that I gave you the 100 like you have a free like to like with. I've noticed you give as many as you receive.

 

[MaStA]

Now that I gave you the 100 like you have a free like to like with. I've noticed you give as many as you receive.

lol!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Now that I gave you the 100 like you have a free like to like with. I've noticed you give as many as you receive.

That was a nice gesture... I think...

lol!

Its actually something to consider, but I gave up a long time ago... I would have to stop liking good posts... Anyways, congrats on the 100!

 

[Tsunami]

Bravo - Yes I'm in ABQ...

I'm finding it real interesting today that so many are bailing out of stocks into the G and F funds, right before February when per the Seasonal Strategy the S fund is the typically the place to be, plus the markets appear to be kicking off the big wave 5 rally that will take the S&P into the 1900's by April. Could be wrong but that's what I'm going with.

The Sentiment Survey hasn't been this low since the early October significant low: Sentiment Survey Past Results | AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors

 

[Bravo Sierra]

It is interesting. One of two models likely in play to the upside- the one you described or putting in the last shoulder before a neckline plunge, this would only capture the 1820-1840 area. In either case, at this point, short-term pain is likely done and short-term gain seems more probable.

Sentiment Survey might be a good contrarian to support this idea.

OTOH, the healthiest thing would probably be to shake this out into a real correction and get it over with. I know I'd be a little more comfortable with that scenario in the long run, as I believe current valuations are too high. Every time I'm all-in I feel like I'm standing on a bubble (or the top of a hot air balloon, if you prefer) defying a gravity that's just waiting to get even. Maybe many others feel it too.

Yes MaStA, ABQ= Albuquerque. I could answer you how it could get worse, but I don't want to pick on Bquat's town. :toung:

 

[MaStA]

Yes MaSta, ABQ= Albuquerque. I could answer you how it could get worse, but I don't want to pick on Bquat's town. :toung:

Gotcha. I know the Mexicans that come over the border with the Chihuahua license plates cannot drive to save their life and the traffic down there sucks. Thankfully it does have a lot of businesses, unlike Alamogordo. My wife and I go to Las Cruces regularly as well and the traffic isn't as bad there. We have heard Albuquerque is great, but we have not made the trip up there yet.

 

[Tsunami]

There's also a potential inverse H&S pattern building. If this rally (wave 1 of 5) peaks out in the 1840's, then wave 2 drops down to form the right shoulder, then the next rally would target above 1900 with that H&S pattern.

I see that just a few brave souls ventured into the S fund today....and, oh my, I'm about to vault into the top 5 in the tracker if things hold up. Sentiment changes fast.

Yes, my wife and I have been telling ourselves for 10 years (I was in the Bay Area for 22 years before here, and grew up in Washington state (Go Seahawks!, I've thought about changing my name to "12th Man" so people stop calling me Tsu. ) that there are worse places than ABQ. Just a few more years and we'll move on to our next adventure, probably Florida.

 

[MaStA]

There's also a potential inverse H&S pattern building. If this rally (wave 1 of 5) peaks out in the 1840's, then wave 2 drops down to form the right shoulder, then the next rally would target above 1900 with that H&S pattern.

I see that just a few brave souls ventured into the S fund today....and, oh my, I'm about to vault into the top 5 in the tracker if things hold up. Sentiment changes fast.

Yes, my wife and I have been telling ourselves for 10 years (I was in the Bay Area for 22 years before here, and grew up in Washington state (Go Seahawks!, I've thought about changing my name to "12th Man" so people stop calling me Tsu. ) that there are worse places than ABQ. Just a few more years and we'll move on to our next adventure, probably Florida.

Are you in the Air Force as well?

 

[Tsunami]

No, and I'm not in DOD but work on base, so there's some clues.

 

[Tsunami]

Looks like the overnight and morning panic was a very deep wave 2, and now a wave 3 up is underway.

No worries, and Monday ought to be a fun day for bulls. Overseas markets will have a lot of catching up to do as well and that will provide more gas.

Charging Bull - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Tsunami]

This 19,2 and 39-day EMA indicator is set up just like it was in late May 2012 and November 2012, and we're now at the point where there was a second sharp drop down to pierce the 200-dma and end the correction. Not saying that's going to happen again but the setup is sure there where the first low occurs at the crossover of those EMA's, then the S&P rises to touch them, then the sharp drop comes to shake out more people.

$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Boy this 1929 chart pattern is sure making the rounds. 3 peaks and a domed house....

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

My guess is a small drop back to test the 1775 area at the worst, then up we go.

 

[WorkFE]

My guess

:worried: huh......
What they meant to say was "my superior technical analysis"

 

[Tsunami]

A break of 1815 would pretty much eliminates bearish possibilities other than minor pullbacks... 1940 here we come. The small caps need to get on board the train soon though, that's not a good sign that they're lagging so badly.

I can't imagine this big of a run, but who knows? http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

 

[Tsunami]

Deflation at the Fed, funny....

"As you can see from the image below this is a serious issue, which if not addressed may mean that financial policy may be determined by a leprechaun in the easily foreseeable future, and possibly even a gerbil a decade or two further down this path."

Channels and Patterns

On a serious note, Springheel Jack has had a target of 1965 for the S&P for a long time, and it's right on track to get there this Spring.

 

[Tsunami]

Sentiment is still plenty low enough for this rally run. http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

We could match the 1851 high as soon as tomorrow before a pullback...then people will be screaming, oh no, a double top!... Nope....mid-1900's by May. Heck, by March at this rate.

Microcaps (IWC) leading the way today (actually the small gold/silver miners, wow), followed in progression by the Russell 2000, Wilshire 4500, S&P 500, then the Dow. Small is in. Very bullish.

With 30 minutes to go:
GDXJ +5.61%
IWC +1.34%
$RUT +1.26%
$EMW +0.93%
$SPX +0.49%
$INDU +0.34%

 

[Tsunami]

Looks like the market is just getting to the meaty part of the final wave 3 (of 5) up, heading to the 1900′s as predicted, and an intermediate top.... very possibly near that full moon on 4/28/14.…and today will give us confirmation of a VIX sell/SPX buy signal that supports this strong move up. Yesterday we got the NYMO buy trigger. Booyah!

$NYAD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Also of note is that the SPX is now doing as well or better than small caps, right on schedule per the seasonal equity clock which has small caps strength end around March 7th: http://www.equityclock.com/seasonality/

I thought this was an interesting read....

Timing Major Market Peaks | S O L A R C Y C L E S

If you take that tendency for major market peaks near new moons, I see there's a new moon on April 28th....

Plus in recent years the markets have been moved by FOMC meetings like no other event, and there's a Fed meeting on April 30th.....

Plus the bullish Elliott wave counts which I favor suggest we've just kicked off a rally that could last into late April....

Hmm, sounds like it could be a typical "sell in May and go away" kind of year, and that's when we'll get the ~10% correction all the experts were screaming about on TV the last few days, not now.

Oh...and here's a chart I like. Today it shows that we achieved Step 2 in buy signals for the S&P in all three indicators with the VIX, NYMO, and S&P all closing back within their bollinger bands. This is a good tool for timing and suggests the market is heading higher.

Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Impressive market today considering the Apple disaster. Looks like I'll move up to about #12 in the tracker today, a record for me and I'll need to take a screen shot for my vanity's sake.