Tsunami's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

It's just possible that because we are in a technically confirmed bull market of some kind, that the market may blow off the loss today as inconsequential. We could get an immediate outstanding snap back.

 

[Tsunami]

QE2 is exporting inflation worldwide, in particular food inflation. Banking expert Jim Rickards:
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4515338/inflations-impact-on-emerging-markets-/?playlist_id=87185

The conclusion I come to with that knowledge is to buy something like JJG. People can argue all day about the merits of protecting yourself from inflation with gold and silver, but it's hard to argue the value of basic food staples.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JJG&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

If the dollar doesn't stop it's freefall soon, inflation will start busting out all over the place.

 

[Tsunami]

Think twice about hoping for the dollar to fall below this lower trend line, it's nearly there.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TUh8K7bGaRI/AAAAAAAAFIw/oG2X-Ik0kDM/s1600/dol-w.png

If it reverses from there look for the markets to finally peak as soon as tomorrow http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TUh4537qqYI/AAAAAAAAIks/rzhtSWsOi6U/s1600/spx30.png
at around 1310 http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ and the dollar to perhaps rally clear up to the upper trend line at 87ish....and we can hold off hyperinflation for a year or so.

But if the Fed gets its wish and collapses the dollar here and now, well, sure stocks would soar and we can all pile into the I fund, but as Michael puts it:

"This is a very sad day, watching what happened to the Dollar, down $1.14 on the day and now VERY close to breaking the trendline of support, which opens the doors for a major sell-off in the Dollar. $70.70 IS the all-time low in the Dollar, and if Ben gets his way, we will soon be living in Hyper-inflation. Although the Equities markets would explode to the upside in a 3 of 3 up scenario, life for the average American will become a living Hell, if you have a job, your raises, if any, will not keep up with inflation, and if you are on a fixed income, as the unemployed and our retirees are, then you will be royally screwed as food and energy prices sky-rocket. I would rather go through the experience of a P3 down, and get it over with, so we can build a solid foundation in our economy for sustainable future growth, rather then living thru Hyper-Inflation, because this does not correct any of the long-term problems and the poor really get the short-end of the stick."
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/

Not to sound dramatic, but we could be at a very important crossroads here for our future.

After hours the dollar is sinking below 77...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

 

[poolman]

Think twice about hoping for the dollar to fall below this lower trend line, it's nearly there.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TUh8K7bGaRI/AAAAAAAAFIw/oG2X-Ik0kDM/s1600/dol-w.png

Yes Tsunami,

This is where my head has been for the last week's worth of trading days. I've been watching the dollar fall. We are right about there and that is also why my exposure to the I - Fund is not that great. If we fall below the 75.XX area then it could drop easily to the 70.XX area.

It might take another couple to few trading day's to find out and it is going to mark the direction for what could be awhile.

 

[Birchtree]

I like when ya'll try and scare the bull tinky out of the boys and girls. It just adds to my wall of worry and I'm a panic buyer tomorrow.

 

[crws]

Think twice about hoping for the dollar to fall below this lower trend line, it's nearly there.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TUh8K7bGaRI/AAAAAAAAFIw/oG2X-Ik0kDM/s1600/dol-w.png

If it reverses from there look for the markets to finally peak as soon as tomorrow http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TUh4537qqYI/AAAAAAAAIks/rzhtSWsOi6U/s1600/spx30.png
at around 1310 http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ and the dollar to perhaps rally clear up to the upper trend line at 87ish....and we can hold off hyperinflation for a year or so.

But if the Fed gets its wish and collapses the dollar here and now, well, sure stocks would soar and we can all pile into the I fund, but as Michael puts it:

"This is a very sad day, watching what happened to the Dollar, down $1.14 on the day and now VERY close to breaking the trendline of support, which opens the doors for a major sell-off in the Dollar. $70.70 IS the all-time low in the Dollar, and if Ben gets his way, we will soon be living in Hyper-inflation. Although the Equities markets would explode to the upside in a 3 of 3 up scenario, life for the average American will become a living Hell, if you have a job, your raises, if any, will not keep up with inflation, and if you are on a fixed income, as the unemployed and our retirees are, then you will be royally screwed as food and energy prices sky-rocket. I would rather go through the experience of a P3 down, and get it over with, so we can build a solid foundation in our economy for sustainable future growth, rather then living thru Hyper-Inflation, because this does not correct any of the long-term problems and the poor really get the short-end of the stick."
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/

Not to sound dramatic, but we could be at a very important crossroads here for our future.

After hours the dollar is sinking below 77...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Makes me want to go bottom-fishin' !
bounce......bounce.....snag...@#!$!#@$#!#$ it!
whew, pulled free, bounce.....and then... FishOn!! whoopee!

 

[Tsunami]

This morning's little drop to 1302.6 is aleady good enough to complete wave 4 on this chart, what comes after this next little rally to 1310 or higher to complete this current 5-wave rally could be interesting...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TUh49R71bGI/AAAAAAAAIkw/QoB5u3Az-_0/s1600/spx1.png

Yep, things are just rosey....

Wal-Mart is coping with a bad case of post-holiday indigestion. After bingeing on Christmas inventory, the world's biggest retailer has been forced to take drastic steps in recent weeks to clear stores and warehouses of excess goods, according to sources close to the company. The culprit: disappointing December sales http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/wal_markdown_YVHvwp0LJp7lZg7BVyUYlJ

Home ownership is falling at an alarming pace, despite the fact that home prices have fallen, affordability is much improved and inventories of new and existing homes are still running quite high. Bargains abound, but few are interested or eligible to take advantage. Nearly 11% of U.S. homes sitting empty http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854

GM parks 510,000 cars, 31% worse than a year earlier: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gm-parks-510000-cars-dealers-31-higher-year-earlier

"Bernanke's Poverty Effect: Food stamp Recipients Jump by 400K In November, Hit New Record Of 43.6 Million" http://www.zerohedge.com/article/be...jump-400k-november-hit-new-record-436-million

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that "dangerous" imbalances have emerged that threaten to derail global recovery and stoke tensions that may ultimately set off civil wars in deeply unequal countries " http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...civil-wars-as-global-inequalities-worsen.html

"Fraud and mismanagement at Afghanistan’s largest bank have resulted in potential losses of as much as $900 million — three times previous estimates — heightening concerns that the bank could collapse and trigger a broad financial panic in Afghanistan" http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2011/01/31/afghan_banks_losses_could_reach_900m/

 

[alevin]

Think twice about hoping for the dollar to fall below this lower trend line, it's nearly there.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TUh8K7bGaRI/AAAAAAAAFIw/oG2X-Ik0kDM/s1600/dol-w.png

If it reverses from there look for the markets to finally peak as soon as tomorrow http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TUh4537qqYI/AAAAAAAAIks/rzhtSWsOi6U/s1600/spx30.png
at around 1310 http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ and the dollar to perhaps rally clear up to the upper trend line at 87ish....and we can hold off hyperinflation for a year or so.

But if the Fed gets its wish and collapses the dollar here and now, well, sure stocks would soar and we can all pile into the I fund, but as Michael puts it:

"This is a very sad day, watching what happened to the Dollar, down $1.14 on the day and now VERY close to breaking the trendline of support, which opens the doors for a major sell-off in the Dollar. $70.70 IS the all-time low in the Dollar, and if Ben gets his way, we will soon be living in Hyper-inflation. Although the Equities markets would explode to the upside in a 3 of 3 up scenario, life for the average American will become a living Hell, if you have a job, your raises, if any, will not keep up with inflation, and if you are on a fixed income, as the unemployed and our retirees are, then you will be royally screwed as food and energy prices sky-rocket. I would rather go through the experience of a P3 down, and get it over with, so we can build a solid foundation in our economy for sustainable future growth, rather then living thru Hyper-Inflation, because this does not correct any of the long-term problems and the poor really get the short-end of the stick."
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/

Not to sound dramatic, but we could be at a very important crossroads here for our future.

After hours the dollar is sinking below 77...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

I'm watching the $ verrrry closely. We're dealing w/stagflation 1970s style-so far. incomes and profit margins stay flat or decline, businesses go bankrupt that pattern continues, either that or they raise prices. Egypt dealing with same-prices up, incomes not, people cant buy food. at some point not enough money to go around-bad debts need to be flushed out. Iceland did it right, we're not. they're recovering economically, we're not, just a market facade due to tanking $.

 

[Tsunami]

Story on CNBC right now caught my ears....the Treasury is being urged to consider issuing 100 year bonds.

Isn't that what happened in Japan right before the collapse there? I remember stories about mortgages in Japan that that were so long they would be passed down for generations. Wow. Who's going to collect on a 100 year bond?

 

[ozzyman]

Story on CNBC right now caught my ears....the Treasury is being urged to consider issuing 100 year bonds.

Isn't that what happened in Japan right before the collapse there? I remember stories about mortgages in Japan that that were so long they would be passed down for generations. Wow. Who's going to collect on a 100 year bond?

i'm only 28 and I'm gunna say my grandkids?:worried:

 

[Warrenlm]

hmmmm, maybe 99 year land leases like in Hawaii, except the sovereign holds title? Would lower payments, no? Completion of serfdom?

 

[Tsunami]

Very impressive breakout of interest rates this week. This will be a game changer if it continues and it becomes clear the Fed has lost control.

The dollar also did a sharp reversal at that important trendline. It's amazing how a line on a piece of paper can stop a market in it's tracks.
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/

 

[Tsunami]

Good info from Carl Swenlin for those with trading accounts....
http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2011/02/equal-weight-indexes-still-leading.html
Basically this confirms what we already know, small caps (S fund) beat large caps (C fund) in bull markets over the long run.

Here's an example of what he's talking about. I like the energy ETF VDE, the names are recognizable.....but over time, the equal weighted ETF RYE is clearly the better choice.

 

[Tsunami]

This is the first guy I've seen to come up with an Elliott wave count that works without violating any rules or guidelines....

http://www.studyofcycles.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xpdNeSEnRY&feature=player_embedded

 

[FAB1]

Thats an eye opener about the interest rates, Tsu - thanks!

Oh and, Down with the Fed!

Oops is that political?

 

[malyla]

This is the first guy I've seen to come up with an Elliott wave count that works without violating any rules or guidelines....

http://www.studyofcycles.com/

Thanks Tsunami. This was a great share.

According to this count, we are going down - going down hard.:worried:

I wonder if the F-fund will benefit or if inflation worries will also cause the F-fund to sink if/when an equities downturn begins

 

[Tsunami]

I've been contemplating going to the F fund when stocks top, which I think is just one more rally away and should occur about Monday, maybe around 1333 (an exact 100% rally from the 3/2009 low would be at 1333.58)...I think today is just a minor wave 4 correction. But now I see that interest rates have broken above an important trend line so I might chicken out of that trade. 10-year note breakout?.....or a fakeout?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TVG4vRQyWzI/AAAAAAAAFO0/VqHJJflgftM/s1600/tnx-8-1.png

Here's an update on the interest rates, and I read that Bernanke actually said something to the effect this morning that rates are remaining low and under control thanks to QE2. Huh? Hello, earth to Ben....the stock market party may be about to end and the chart below is why, if short term rates start dragging up too the Fed will be forced to follow the bond markets lead, as it always dose; everyone knows the Fed does not control rates, they follow them.

http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TVK6srdK3hI/AAAAAAAAFPU/fmE137EO5Xo/s1600/tre-9.png

 

[Tsunami]

More on bonds.....the 20 year bond bounced of the 200 week moving average today....can the Fed hold the line here? Perhaps a bounce is likely, coinciding with a pullback in stocks?

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/

 

[anthony]

More on bonds.....the 20 year bond bounced of the 200 week moving average today....can the Fed hold the line here? Perhaps a bounce is likely, coinciding with a pullback in stocks?

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/

Can you talk a little on your understanding of relationships between TLT, AGG and our F Fund? They don't always seem to move in the same way. What are the key influences on their value?

 

[FAB1]

Went to a little Mom & Pop restaurant last evening about 10 mi down the highway, we only go there every 3 or 4 months.

Well when we got there, no cars - it was dark and cold and we were surprised b/c it was always a busy place.

Not sure if it was killed by the bad economy, but THAT WOULDNT surprise me.