Tsunami's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Extreme technical readings like this just don't seem to matter any more with the daily infusions of money by the Fed....

With the S&P at a 52-week high, this is the most-extreme deviation in the Arms Index since 1956." For those who foolishly believe that technical indicators "indicate" anything anymore in a market in which there is just one player left, may want to be concerned - all the other times such an extreme deviation has occurred, any short-term gains were erased during the months ahead.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/arms-trin-index-most-extreme-deviation-1956
 
3 peaks and a domed house...and a piece of Coca-Cola chocolate cake right now.....

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

cccake.jpg
 
Tsunami,

We have no inflation as a result of 'The Law of Big Numbers'. Actually not... But, my personal 'Law of Big Numbers' states that when a $500,000 dollar house dumps 10% of its value than you have 10% deflation - for $50,000 in this case.

The cost of food and fuel jumping 30% doesn't negate a deflation of 10% in housing. It washes out. Thus, no inflation. Except for folks not taking advantage of the deflation. We get hammered. We live the inflation dream and wait for the deflation nightmare:mad:.

Tsunami said:
Looks like the markets are rolling over here for an overdue pullback
http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/12/money-flow-t-status-reviewupdate.html

So here we are in December, we're still being told that inflation is around 1%, but in the real world this is how 2010 has looked in reality:
101207_The-Real-Cost-of-Living.gif


Taking a look at a few items in my own home budget, things where I can compare apples to apples from 2009 to 2010, here's some of my examples....

Property taxes - Up 5.4%
Gas & electric - Up 17.25% to $217.80/month on average
Water & Sewer & Garbage - Up 2.2%
Newspaper - Up 7.7%
Gasoline - Same two cars, but up from 9.25 cents/mile in 2009 to 13.05 cents/mile in 2010, up 41%
Health insurance premiums - Up 9.0%

So the CPI is up 1.1%? Yeah right.
Click to expand...
 
I wonder if the media will make as much of it as the last time....the current mood does not seem dour enough for it to fit in their scheduling.
 
☃♫ Here comes Santa Claus, ♪ Here comes Santa Claus, ♫ Right down Santa Claus Lane...♪☃
 
Warrenlm said:
I wonder if the media will make as much of it as the last time....the current mood does not seem dour enough for it to fit in their scheduling.
Click to expand...

I doubt the media will say much about this one since the August one didn't pan out (though by the rules the Omen is supposd to be in effect for four months once you get a second confirming signal). Today we might get the second confirming signal which creates the "cluster" needed to confirm this new Hindenberg Omen and make it "official" (having two or more greatly increases the odds of it being right), which would be only the second Hindenberg Omen since July 2007, then the four-month clock starts ticking for a possible coming plunge....with the odds being only around 28% for a drop of 10% or more.

The main points of the Hindenberg Omen are that;

- In the last 25 years at least, there has not been a single stock market "crash" of 10% or more without a Hindenberg Omen occurring first
- If nothing else it's a sign of an unhealthy diverging market, with a smaller set of stocks being pumped up to new highs while others are sinking to new lows.

So it makes for a rather heavy block in the wall of worry.

This guy posted the chart below today which depicts pretty much what I currently think the market's path will be for the next couple of years:
http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/
This assumes that the Fed is unsuccessful at fighting off another round of deflation in the markets....

 
Birchtree said:
Ba Humbug.
Click to expand...

In the short run I agree and I plan to finally get back in for a Santa Rally either tomorrow or Friday...whoo hoo, maybe I can get back up to 3% and beat the G fund!...but in the longer run the tsunami of retiring baby boomers is going to overwhelm the best intentions of the Fed. I've received six email announcements of retirements in my office in just the last 3 days....I see a good market for single story homes coming....Unless the Fed can really destroy all of our futures with hyperinflation (deflation is much more survivable) I just can't imagine the U.S. and other similar markets doing any better than another sideways decade ahead.
 
Good to see all the new members joining lately, the more the merrier.

This wedge is one of many reasons I got out yesterday.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TRujvE15mgI/AAAAAAAAEt8/fCIGPJaSuVk/s1600/wedgi-29.png

I don't expect a big drop yet but I wanted to get out of the theatre ahead of the crowds. I'll be looking to get back in soon and riding it to the next peak in February....maybe that's when Spain hits the headlines.

This guy keeps about 7 pages of interesting charts up to date:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3615958&cmd=show[s184393304]&disp=O
 
Tsunami said:
Good to see all the new members joining lately, the more the merrier.

This wedge is one of many reasons I got out yesterday.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TRujvE15mgI/AAAAAAAAEt8/fCIGPJaSuVk/s1600/wedgi-29.png

I don't expect a big drop yet but I wanted to get out of the theatre ahead of the crowds. I'll be looking to get back in soon and riding it to the next peak in February....maybe that's when Spain hits the headlines.

This guy keeps about 7 pages of interesting charts up to date:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3615958&cmd=show[s184393304]&disp=O
Click to expand...

mmmmmm, data! Thanks, Tsunami.
 
... great charts, surprised he didn't draw trendlines on the weekly Nasdaq chart he had. There's an obvious inverted H&S on the verge of a breakout if the qqqq's break a little highter, no tranny chart either. BTW, the tranny gave a head bob and the financials could be doing a bear fake as we speak on the intradays. I don't think it's kissing the channels goodbye because the market leaders (qqqq's and $tran) are showing bull continuation. That AUS dollar strength was the play of the year, I mentioned it a year ago but didn't have the balls to bite.
 
I saw the latest charts of the imminent H&S breakout on the QQQQ's yesterday, can't find the link at the moment....

Michael's Trend Finder just produced a sell signal on the S&P...
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/

This guy's astrological tea leaves were predicting a short term top for today as well http://justsignals.blogspot.com/ and yesterday was one of McHugh's phi mate turn dates.... these blogs are springing up like mushrooms.... http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

Obama's Hawaii vacation cost taxpayer's about $1.5 million.....
http://www.thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/

No problem, just print more money....
obamadollar.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
182
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bulls are back
Replies
0
Views
154
tsptalk
tsptalk
RevShark
  • Article Article
RevShark's TSP Timing Changes
Replies
0
Views
159
RevShark
RevShark
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - We have a very busy week for the stock and bond markets
Replies
0
Views
124
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The CPI showed inflation under control
Replies
0
Views
174
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top