Tsunami's Account Talk

Looks like "they" want to goose stocks all the way through the election. It's going to be tough to keep it going this week though.

The International Balloon Fiesta in Albuqueruqe concluded yesterday. It was a great success with mass ascensions of up to 500 balloons for 9 straight days thanks to the great weather.

This is pretty cool, this map shows the gas balloon race results live and it's down to two contenders now approaching Detroit.
http://www.balloonfiesta.com/GasTracking/2010/

Speaking of hot air, how much longer can this stay aloft?
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/nasdaq_sentiment.htm

ndsi.gif
 
Some statistics on the number of IFT's folks are making on the tracker; the following is the current (10/12/10) ranges within the tracker and the average number of IFT's people have made within each group year-to-date:

1 - 100 = 7.95 IFT's per person
101 - 200 = 6.59
201 - 300 = 7.16
301 - 400 = 8.17
401 - 463 = 11.70
Overall average = 8.04 IFT's per person

Hard to draw any conclusions except it does appear that people struggling with negative returns are tending to make more IFT's than average in the battle to recover. I don't think one could say (based on the higher average in the top 100) that more trades equals worse returns, which is what the TSP Board would want us to believe.
 
Some statistics on the number of IFT's folks are making on the tracker; the following is the current (10/12/10) ranges within the tracker and the average number of IFT's people have made within each group year-to-date:

1 - 100 = 7.95 IFT's per person
101 - 200 = 6.59
201 - 300 = 7.16
301 - 400 = 8.17
401 - 463 = 11.70
Overall average = 8.04 IFT's per person

Hard to draw any conclusions except it does appear that people struggling with negative returns are tending to make more IFT's than average in the battle to recover. I don't think one could say (based on the higher average in the top 100) that more trades equals worse returns, which is what the TSP Board would want us to believe.

I guess Intrepid is an outlier? ;)
 
POMO schedule update shows continued injections of money up through the election.

http://newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

The wave count allows for at least a couple more peaks in the short term. I've finally cried uncle and just got in to try to catch the remaining fumes of this rally.

So now it will fall, as it frequently does starting on options expiration day. One way or the other, I won't be stuck at +5% any longer. :worried:
 
Happy thoughts from Doug Casey...
http://www.thedailybell.com/1436/Do...iddle-Class-and-the-Coming-Gold-Standard.html
A key statement to me is that he no longer sees deflation as a threat (he was on the fence, so this is a shift), leaving Prechter as about the last person predicting a deflationary depression. That doesn't mean that stocks can't fall below the March 09 lows though.

Gold and silver continues to shine, gold has appreciated against every single currency on earth this year, and it hasn't reached the mania stage yet...
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=112791&sn=Detail&pid=92730

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/go...es-12-month-gold-forecast-1365-1650-silver-27

7_1.jpg

 
Last edited:
I would think so if inflation doesn't pick up. Some areas (D.C., California coast, and others) are still overpriced....my parents are driving over to Lincoln City today for my dad's 77th birthday. Be on the lookout for a slow Prius.

The weather is awesome here today.
Indian Summer time.
Sun & 67f
 
Those POMO injections keep rolling in http://newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html but those will pale in comparison to $100 million chunks the Fed is talking about now.

I think we'll see at least ~1197 at some point in the next two weeks http://www.thedanielcode.com/public/up/17October2010_LTTC.pdf , but that could be it. Seems like the Fed has painted themselves into a corner where if they don't print at least $100 million and announce more coming on 11/3, look out below.

The Elliott waves are looking up short-term, and election day 2008 was a huge up day, so I'm planning to stay in at least that long, but I'm always re-evaluating every day.

Lot's of talk lately about the 4 year cycle bottoming and where the heck is it?...well, another perspective, from the "cyclesman" guy Tim Wood, he stresses that all cycles stretch and contract, and the last 4-year cycle stretched waaaaay out and didn't bottom until March 2009, so the next 4-year cycle isn't due to bottom until March 2013, but will likely contract to make up for the very long one that finished in '09, and so perhaps bottom in the Fall of 2012.
 
The next Fed POMO starts in a few minutes, at about 10:15 eastern, and ends around 11 am (see note 1 under the schedule table). This time they're buying longer dated 10- to 30- notes/bonds.
http://newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

This market manipulation has been so effective that Goldman Sachs is telling clients to front-run it....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-advises-clients-front-run-fed-pomo

So would you buyin' if you had more IFTs... play the contrarian? Seems like many weak and strong hands bailed in anticipation of election hype. On the weekly charts, that could easily put a higher floor on the market.
 
So would you buyin' if you had more IFTs... play the contrarian?

No, that POMO stuff would be for daytraders, but it also is probably helping with the market levitation in general. Today there was hardly any noticeable bounce during that 45 minute time period, maybe a quarter percent...or maybe just the fact that the markets held up again today was the POMO effect.

I was being very conservative getting out yesterday, there's just too many technical issues screaming for a fall and I didn't want to overstay my welcome like I did in May when I got greedy and it cost me nearly 10%. I was hoping for 2% in this move (and I had it early in the day yesterday), but only got 1%, I'll take it though.
 
Re: POMO effect.

Remember the Bear Sterns effect. Everyone considered the Fed safety net a chance to double down but we all know how that turned out. Fed buying alone isn't moving the markets, it's the concept in people's heads that the bailouts, stick saves and euphoric parties will continue on as far as the eye can see.

Look.... Nasdaq up today on more decliners than advancers. The divergences continue to widen.
 
No, that POMO stuff would be for daytraders, but it also is probably helping with the market levitation in general. Today there was hardly any noticeable bounce during that 45 minute time period, maybe a quarter percent...or maybe just the fact that the markets held up again today was the POMO effect.

I was being very conservative getting out yesterday, there's just too many technical issues screaming for a fall and I didn't want to overstay my welcome like I did in May when I got greedy and it cost me nearly 10%. I was hoping for 2% in this move (and I had it early in the day yesterday), but only got 1%, I'll take it though.

I was hardly 4 months ago that QE was seen by the markets as weakness in recovery and then the market tanked.
All this QE bs about how it will be a great boost to the market is just that- BS.
IMO, At this stage of the game the algo writers are 10 steps ahead and jumped on the seasonal & midterm trend history, now they are either range bound with little wiggle room, or have this extended top planned to lure in whoever they can before they churn and burn.
Like bringing checkers to a chess game, unless it's your full time job...

I think the best results of Fed inflow will spur inflation, which would create an exodus from ST bonds, or bond ETF's, but that will be a while developing.
All the corporate cash sitting on the sidelines isn't going to be doled out indiscriminately or all of a sudden because liquidity is power, so it would be hard to imagine more than a slight uptick in inflation that signals healthier recovery activity.
I'd say we will need a couple mil people back to work before we go up from here.
A corporate dichotomy- more hiring, means less ST profits before growth,
-or- don't hire, and maintain lowered growth expectations and higher profits.
 
Back
Top