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Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
Nice chart, Tsunami. It looks like it can get pinned up near 90 for several weeks at times, but going back a few years it looks like a pretty consistant indicator.
I'll post the weekly here along with the S&P...
Tsunami
Well-known member
Thanks, I got the idea for that chart here http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/ It's easier to read on a linear scale.
Back in April, it peaked and started to fall off for several weeks while the market still chugged higher, so perhaps a peak on that chart could be an early indicator of a top.
felixthecat
Member
Is it time for the dollar to rebound in the next day or two? If so, thinking we might be getting close to a short term top. Will ride this wave for now.
crws
Active member
Well, as much as I HATE to admit, when the first round of bond-buying started Cramer was all over it, and the next day the market took off.
Tsu- was it you or Uptrend that had posted USD vs S&P trends?
I had seen on an MB some blurb (rumor?) that the Fed was planning on swamping the market with cash to offset China's reluctance to adjust their currency, with inflation stops in the US set for 5%.
It would appear that Japan is adjusting, and obviously we are. Geither's on the stump in the EU for stimulus.
China doesn't want to let loose of it's manufacturing stranglehold, they are really the only country in the world as far as I know worried about slowing their economy down...
A race to the bottom?
They are pretty good at putting guests on that are in line with that day's / week's action. That is, market's up - load up on the bullish guests. Market's down - find some bears. Market crash - Get Peter Schiff.
I guess it makes it look as if they know what they are doing.
Tsunami
Well-known member
I don't remember posting USD vs S&P charts...but it does seem to take steep increases in the dollar index to get stocks to fall, mild dollar rallies don't do it. e.g., the steep dollar rallies in May and August moved stocks (or was it the other way around?) http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX.Z10.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d12
Just read this bit about Geithner's latest attempts at manipulating the dollar lower, ironic that he accuses other countries of doing so and yet we're probably the best at it. The currency war is interesting, a battle of words and quiet keystrokes creating and moving money around.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/07/business/global/07imf.html
This bit near the end is laughable, "He said it was critical to distinguish countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which he said “had no choice but to move very, very aggressively” to cut spending, from bigger, less indebted economies like the United States"..... Huh?, the U.S. debt is just as bad as the PIIGS countries. All fiat currencies go to zero, it's just a matter of when and gold/silver are sensing it's getting closer.
Here's a nice piece by Casey Research on the situation from yesterday, it's about to disappear in an hour or two for the latest daily column though: http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php Oops, it just disappeared...Now it's here, October 5th: http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCddArchives.php
Hmm, I like that 10/6 piece too although it has a lot of big words for my tiny brain to absorb....."radical niceness", the pursuit of perfection....that's what we've been doing to ourselves and in the process we're strangling ourselves with complexity, it's resulted in the debt we'll never get out of, an overabundance of laws and requirements at every level of government, a country that dislikes it's government...how will it end? In the past it hasn't ended well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter
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JTH
Well-known member
crws
Active member
thanks JT.
I'm still a chart newbie, so perhaps I was asking about the wrong comparison.
I was trying to get at how the inverse directions applied- was that you that posted as the dollar goes down, the market goes up? Intersecting trends?
Feel free to school me.
As for China-
I was listening to Hartmann as a discussion about the middle class evolved, when I had the thought about China, now with a consumer - driven "middle class" will most likely entirely resist any influence to slow their economy or revalue the Yuan, mainly because the "social unrest" they warn of, will most likely happen in their country.
The Chinese government is afraid of their masses, and does the bidding of the consumer, lest the consumer rise up and revolt with protest.
In essence, we (US & China) have traded economies and with it the economic strength and influence of the middle class....
To "coin" a term, IMO, we are entering into a "Gold War" with China, the primary stakes being the prosperity of our nation.
We will have come from behind and beat them at their own game and get back to level.
I don't know which is worse, being "addicted" to oil, or cheap Chinese manufacture.
I'm still a chart newbie, so perhaps I was asking about the wrong comparison.
I was trying to get at how the inverse directions applied- was that you that posted as the dollar goes down, the market goes up? Intersecting trends?
Feel free to school me.
As for China-
I was listening to Hartmann as a discussion about the middle class evolved, when I had the thought about China, now with a consumer - driven "middle class" will most likely entirely resist any influence to slow their economy or revalue the Yuan, mainly because the "social unrest" they warn of, will most likely happen in their country.
The Chinese government is afraid of their masses, and does the bidding of the consumer, lest the consumer rise up and revolt with protest.
In essence, we (US & China) have traded economies and with it the economic strength and influence of the middle class....
To "coin" a term, IMO, we are entering into a "Gold War" with China, the primary stakes being the prosperity of our nation.
We will have come from behind and beat them at their own game and get back to level.
I don't know which is worse, being "addicted" to oil, or cheap Chinese manufacture.
JTH
Well-known member
There are a couple ways I like to compare the price action between the dollar and SPX. The first chart I posted was a direct price comparison of the SPX verses the dollar. Here we can see the moving averages show SPX is winning with a 50/200MA Golden Cross. But the recent September price action shows the SPX is declining against the dollar. This is sort of a weird (not seen often) situation where the dollar is declining faster than usual.
Another chart I like to use is a Price Performance Percentage Chart. Here we can see that over the last 3 months SPX is up just over 8% while the dollar is down just under 8%, leaving us with a substantial 16% gap. This is something I don't see very often on the 3 month time frame. IMHO this will not end well...
View attachment 10051
Warrenlm
Well-known member
They are pretty good at putting guests on that are in line with that day's / week's action. That is, market's up - load up on the bullish guests. Market's down - find some bears. Market crash - Get Peter Schiff.
I guess it makes it look as if they know what they are doing.
What a difference a day makes. This morning the talkers on the 6-7 segment (Mohammed, others) are the opposite of rosy. OK, I'll start listening to music.
Tsunami
Well-known member
That's exactly what I was looking for- perspective.
Thanks!
Yes... it will prove interesting... soft landing or a dull thud - whooomp!
The dollar is fast approaching an important trendline, looks like about 76.2 on this chart, and at the rate it's falling, it could get there tomorrow.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TKzkDbo3tXI/AAAAAAAAHuM/RyaslaK8KJI/s1600/dollar.png (click on the image and it should enlarge)
If that doesn't hold, it's time to start wondering if we're rapidly moving into a period of high or even hyperinflation.
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Tsunami
Well-known member
The selloff in gold and silver today is coming with massive volume. I wonder what else might follow them very soon.....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJ...+AGG+DX-Y.NYB+GLD+slv+uso&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJ...+AGG+DX-Y.NYB+GLD+slv+uso&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
JTH
Well-known member
Tsunami
Well-known member
Interesting info about the Fed's open market operations. The market has been going up the most on the days when they make the biggest purchases of securities, no surprise there I suppose.... but I didn't know they published the schedule in advance of when they're going to do it.
http://newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo_landing.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HCTbE5oPiQ
http://newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo_landing.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HCTbE5oPiQ
JTH
Well-known member
crws
Active member
Gold, metals give away some gains
Gold and other metals prices sank Thursday as investors worried that Japan's central bank might soon take action to weaken the yen. That could strengthen the value of the dollar and make gold a less attractive hedge against inflation.
(Lots of chart data)
Gold Price Manipulation Prior to Options Expiration Exposed
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20677.html
Gold and Silver Price Conspiracies Earn Their Weight[/B][/SIZE]
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20523.html
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