Tsunami's Account Talk

[Warrenlm]

Since there are a couple people left in equities and looking for the best exit point, perhaps you can also speak to that when time.

 

[Tsunami]

Since there are a couple people left in equities and looking for the best exit point, perhaps you can also speak to that when time.

Well, just my opinion, but up days are hard to come by and today could be that day, but this bounce could last longer into next week. Here's an example of where we could be, with a large wave 2 bounce coming in September after that coming low. Who knows....
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THbL9l-ueTI/AAAAAAAAHSE/3-sCNPZl6tQ/s1600/spx30.png

Or maybe this http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THbPTevLYsI/AAAAAAAAHSM/EUuGJ_uDe1g/s1600/wlsh15.png the drop this morning did match that pretty well.

 

[Tsunami]

What old people do for fun....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6y1e0skfJts
Out of the pool!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taGmLRSl19s&feature=PlayList&p=37A5A67F2C35882A&index=0&playnext=1

For the markets, this looks as good as any other guess...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THgwt37Sy3I/AAAAAAAAHTM/QG__JmIra68/s1600/spx30.png

That channel has worked like magic for weeks, the slope of hope. A 4-5% drop next week, bottom around 9/3 or 9/7, then the boys come back from vacation and buy buy buy in a big wave 2 rally for week or so, then down hard per the normal September slump. A slightly higher open Monday followed by a selloff would indicate that's what happening.

 

[Tsunami]

I...uh...have no idea...ummm...if this guy...umm...uhhh...is any good...ummmm....but ummm...I agree....umm...uhhh...with his view on the dollar....

http://the-elliott-wave-practitione...t&view=article&id=279&Itemid=100&limitstart=3

A quick drop to 82.50 Sunday evening or early Monday, then a sharp reversal higher would fit perfect with a slightly higher open in stocks Monday then a resumed sell off. Monday morning looks real important for determining the short term outlook, the bears need to keep it in this channel:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/THgbQ0PCf5I/AAAAAAAADbY/-RtPCLWA8nU/s1600/spx-27-1.png

I prefer this count though http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THgwt37Sy3I/AAAAAAAAHTM/QG__JmIra68/s1600/spx30.png
which would create a fall for a few days down to 1010-1015ish, then (just like this week) a buying frenzy Friday and beyond for a week or so (back up to 1070 or so in a wave 2) after the much-feared 9/3 jobs report isn't worse than feared.

 

[KevinD]

...and some new IFT's.

I've been reluctant to use my first IFT early in the month for fear of having to sit out the rest of the month but IMO if we hit 1010 this may be the trade I make this month. A grab and go can make for a long month...

 

[Afishegg]

(yodas voice) New Ift's ...mmmm.Yessss...... But no gains in market suspect yoda haha, ...Ift good ...market ....baaadddddd... use the force young jedi .... Make........"wise" decision young one!

That was me mimicking yoda. Well your right, and as yoda says, we may have new ift's but we still have a cra*py market with no real good news coming down the pipes. I think I'll wait till closer to holiday season to think about how I'll use those Ift's

Currently 100% G fund, I'll use 1 Ift to go 20% F fund, whaddya think?:toung:

 

[Tsunami]

Tough talk from Arnold, I like it!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449813071709510.html

 

[Tsunami]

I...uh...have no idea...ummm...if this guy...umm...uhhh...is any good...ummmm....but ummm...I agree....umm...uhhh...with his view on the dollar....

http://the-elliott-wave-practitione...t&view=article&id=279&Itemid=100&limitstart=3

A quick drop to 82.50 Sunday evening or early Monday, then a sharp reversal higher would fit perfect with a slightly higher open in stocks Monday then a resumed sell off. Monday morning looks real important for determining the short term outlook, the bears need to keep it in this channel:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/THgbQ0PCf5I/AAAAAAAADbY/-RtPCLWA8nU/s1600/spx-27-1.png

I prefer this count though http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/THgwt37Sy3I/AAAAAAAAHTM/QG__JmIra68/s1600/spx30.png
which would create a fall for a few days down to 1010-1015ish, then (just like this week) a buying frenzy Friday and beyond for a week or so (back up to 1070 or so in a wave 2) after the much-feared 9/3 jobs report isn't worse than feared.

Well, after my weekend reading, I have to change my view, and as long as the markets don't fall off a cliff right off the bat Monday morning, I think the S&P will continue it's rally this week up to somewhere between 1077 and 1095, peaking by Friday. Looks like the dollar and bonds need to work off some steam a little longer.

 

[KevinD]

Do you think there will be a chance to get in or was that this past Thursday? There will need to be another little pull back for me to pull the trigger.

 

[Tsunami]

Do you think there will be a chance to get in or was that this past Thursday? There will need to be another little pull back for me to pull the trigger.

Nah, I think most of this little rally will be over by Monday, I'd be too nervous about it rolling over as soon as 9/2...but for those with August IFT's left I suppose that gives you something with some luck....I also think the next wave 3 drop could continue right into October with only brief/unpredictable spike rallies, so I'll probably just stay on the sidelines for now. The last time I tried to get in for a rally I lost 2% in one day so I'm gun shy. About the only thing that would change my mind was if the government announced an accounting error and we actually have a budget surplus of a trillion dollars.

Just my opinions!

Here's another:
http://www.thechartpatterntrader.com/
And another (bonds up until next June)
http://www.ttheory.com/
And another:
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/
And another:
http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.com/
And another:
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ (futures are already too bullish for him to be right)
And another:
http://www.thedanielcode.com/display.php?nav=archives
And another:
http://blog.rebeltraders.net/market-update-videos/
And another:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/8/14_Robin_Griffiths.html

 

[KevinD]

About the only thing that would change my mind was if the government announced an accounting error and we actually have a budget surplus of a trillion dollars.

:laugh: View attachment 9908

 

[WorkFE]

Dreaming. But I like the idea. :nuts:

 

[Tsunami]

Tsunami was giving warnings way back in December but these days using my name in vain seems to be all the rage...
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/brian-paragamian/tsunami-warning-issued
I think he's got it right though, the Fed is going to have to bring out some bigger guns to achieve escape velocity from the deflationary vortex. Today I'm hearing that bringing back the $8000 home buyers credit is back on the table among a package of new lifelines for the economy. By November they should be able to come up with a carrot for everyone.

Short term, will this trend line now act as support and bring about a bounce for a couple days up to 1080 or so as I think? We'll see.
http://blog.rebeltraders.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/ES-E-mini-chart.png

 

[crws]

Tsunami was giving warnings way back in December but these days using my name in vain seems to be all the rage...
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/brian-paragamian/tsunami-warning-issued
I think he's got it right though, the Fed is going to have to bring out some bigger guns to achieve escape velocity from the deflationary vortex. Today I'm hearing that bringing back the $8000 home buyers credit is back on the table among a package of new lifelines for the economy. By November they should be able to come up with a carrot for everyone.

Short term, will this trend line now act as support and bring about a bounce for a couple days up to 1080 or so as I think? We'll see.
http://blog.rebeltraders.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/ES-E-mini-chart.png

That's a pretty steep ramp to abruptly turn on a dime with hearsay. I'm thinking this is political warfare at our expense, and the market doesn't like it. Everything on the table is subject to debate, and we've seen how that goes.
I'd say diff if O was to the point of saying f it and went for executive order, but his MO seems to be an olive branch in one hand and a shovel in the other- for which party's hole, at this point, is up for wager. :suspicious:

 

[Tsunami]

Boy there's a lot of fear in the market and it looks like it wants to break that 1040 level soon. A steady stream of economic data landmines starts in a couple hours with the Fed meeting minutes and continues through Friday. For today's IFTs, of the first 9 so far I see that not one person is leaving a single penny in stocks. I don't think I've ever seen that before. Some of that fear money is moving to gold and it's near a new high...the only sector I can find doing well other than gold and bond funds, and it's a tiny one, is rare earth metals. The 3 stocks I follow are doing really well lately.... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=gwg.v+avl.to+ree&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=

 

[Tsunami]

Futures up strong, whipsawing traders back and forth....will Wednesday be a repeat of the first day of September 2008 with a pop then drop?......

"This crisis is not over. We are just in the middle of it. There’s another 50 percent to go."
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/prelude-to-meltdown

 

[crws]

the current wrinkle would be that there is "theoretically" 1 less war on the table.
IMO that could spawn a major optimism rally and plateau, of the type "the glass half empty" becomes "the glass half full".
Debatable, but hope is a powerful motivator, and hope has been sagging like the market.
-takes a major loss in F to have significant impact. I don't see any signs that the "all clear" has been sounded and bond holders have thrown caution to the wind and it is SRO on the stock train.
I'll be interested to see what you think.

 

[Birchtree]

CRWS,

My good man, we will be in Iraq for the next 50 years and they will ask us to stay. Iraq will be the counterbalance to Iran.

 

[crws]

CRWS,

My good man, we will be in Iraq for the next 50 years and they will ask us to stay. Iraq will be the counterbalance to Iran.

a quick look around the world would confirm that.
My point was more that the pipeline of the billions being spent and wasted there will be redirected back here, where they belong.

Thursday 8 February 2007 An armed guard poses beside pallets of $100 bills in Baghdad.
Almost $12bn in cash was spent by the US-led authority

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/08/usa.iraq1

How the US sent $12bn in cash to Iraq. And watched it vanish
Special flights brought in tonnes of banknotes which disappeared into the war zone

 

[WorkFE]

I see BT had to hire a guard to watch his Investments. :laugh: