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Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
Warrenlm
Well-known member
Wow, one of the links led to this one, which notes that tax deductible contributions can be made to support further education on the right of a man to take multiple wives at an early age, temporarily, when his sexual appetite requires that relief. 
http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/2578.htm
http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/2578.htm
Tsunami
Well-known member
Wow, one of the links led to this one, which notes that tax deductible contributions can be made to support further education on the right of a man to take multiple wives at an early age, temporarily, when his sexual appetite requires that relief.
http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/2578.htm
Yikes. I hadn't searched around that site. Definitely not something you'd want to be perusing at work.
I see the dollar has already taken off in it's next leg up. That should eliminate the potential short term bullish Elliott wave possibiliites if it continues....meanwhile treasuries just keep pushing higher.
Silverbird
Well-known member
You'll need more than tax deductions to support multiple wives/husbands.Wow, one of the links led to this one, which notes that tax deductible contributions can be made to support further education on the right of a man to take multiple wives at an early age, temporarily, when his sexual appetite requires that relief.
http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/2578.htm
alevin
Well-known member
I learned awhile back that when Muslims are overseas away from home for extended periods, they are allowed to take "temporary" wives for convenience. the legally "temporary" marriages are dissolved when the man goes home.
then again, I've seen cases where they've sincerely married here under U.S. law and taken their U.S. wives back to their home country. don't know how the marriages went once they left the U.S.-2 different countries.
then again, I've seen cases where they've sincerely married here under U.S. law and taken their U.S. wives back to their home country. don't know how the marriages went once they left the U.S.-2 different countries.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Another new article from Martin Armstrong: http://www.usafreecall.com/files/World%20Share%20Market%20Outlook%20&%20Grand%20Unified%20Theory%208-15-2010.pdf
He's supposed to be finally released from prison next March: http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/2010/02/martin-armstrong-bio.html
Yesterday was a Maxwell Smart "missed it by that much" Hindenburg Omen confirmation when the new lows came in just short of the 2.2% needed to officially meet all the criteria. Today there's no doubt that we have an official Hindenburg Omen confirmation, so the odds are now around 30% of a "crash" of 15% or more over the coming couple of months, a lot higher than any random time period basically. Since the S&P is already down about 12% from the April top, that would at least double the pain.
MC Oscillator negative today and the NYSE 10-week moving average is rising (barely) http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
New highs 83, new lows 95, both exceeding 2.2% (70) and new highs isn't more than double new lows http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t
He's supposed to be finally released from prison next March: http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/2010/02/martin-armstrong-bio.html
Yesterday was a Maxwell Smart "missed it by that much" Hindenburg Omen confirmation when the new lows came in just short of the 2.2% needed to officially meet all the criteria. Today there's no doubt that we have an official Hindenburg Omen confirmation, so the odds are now around 30% of a "crash" of 15% or more over the coming couple of months, a lot higher than any random time period basically. Since the S&P is already down about 12% from the April top, that would at least double the pain.
MC Oscillator negative today and the NYSE 10-week moving average is rising (barely) http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
New highs 83, new lows 95, both exceeding 2.2% (70) and new highs isn't more than double new lows http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t
Tsunami
Well-known member
Old editorial but still relevent
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123...as+Shrugged':+From+Fiction+to+Fact+in+52+Year
His Sunday second video's EW counts are copied straight out of Bob McHugh's weekend newsletter, the alternate big picture counts that McHugh has shown for over a year now....the very last one is the one I'm leaning toward....around a 40% drop by next June, then back up as the panicking Fed manages to overwhelm the asset deflation with money printing...
http://www.thechartpatterntrader.com/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123...as+Shrugged':+From+Fiction+to+Fact+in+52+Year
His Sunday second video's EW counts are copied straight out of Bob McHugh's weekend newsletter, the alternate big picture counts that McHugh has shown for over a year now....the very last one is the one I'm leaning toward....around a 40% drop by next June, then back up as the panicking Fed manages to overwhelm the asset deflation with money printing...
http://www.thechartpatterntrader.com/
crws
Active member
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz........ the bears might just run away with this thing tomorrow if the bull doesn't wake up.
After reading that story, I don't think sleeping was the implication....:worried:
Tsunami
Well-known member
Yeah, I think that bull is going into a very long winter hibernation. The snows won't thaw until next June. This has seemed too easy. Way back in my very first post on 12/29/2009 I said (based mostly on Terry Laundry's T-Theory, which has turned out to be quite close and way better than any other guru I know of) that the important peaks this year would be in early May and late August. In both cases the peaks came a week or two early, close enough, and it turned out the August peak was a lower wave 2 peak, but this whole year has been pretty predictable and unfortunately that means the next predictions of a Kondratieff winter deflationary depression
http://www.[[financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0713.html
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/1201.html
are probably correct as well, and we're about to head down hard well into next year....I'll stay with mid-June next year for the bottom for now. And we will get below that 666 low, whether it's during this drop or a later one in a few years. There's a set of criteria going back to the 1800's that has now been met (can't go into detail, it's a proprietary source), and when the criteria are met then 100% of the time the bear market has always dropped below the previous major low, which in this case was the 666 low of 3/09. Statistics are made to be broken, but I'll take 100% odds every time. Bonds up until next June, and stocks down, with a few playable big stock rallies along the way. Then the tsunami wave reverses with a vengence.
With all the Elliott Wavers in sync, the Hindenburg Omen, head and shoulders, etc., this almost seems like a perfect bear trap setup, but apparently not. Rather I think it means that this drop will be quicker since the average investor is not going to hang onto "hope" as long this time and will get out and stay out. So this could be much like the 2007-09 drop, but more accelerated. :embarrest:
Oh, and regarding the H.O., of the 27 previous HO's in the last 25 years, 8 (29.6%) were followed by 15% or more drops within 4 months. The S&P closed at 1071.7 last Friday, the day of the HO confirmation. So a 15% drop would be to 911 by Christmas. That sounds easily doable and would make it 9 of the last 28 HO's producing a "crash", or 32%. I think this technical indicator has staying power no matter how many people follow it since it's a combination of so many things that in sum point to a fractured market where the big money is distributing stock to the little guys to be left holding the time bomb.
http://www.[[financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0713.html
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/1201.html
are probably correct as well, and we're about to head down hard well into next year....I'll stay with mid-June next year for the bottom for now. And we will get below that 666 low, whether it's during this drop or a later one in a few years. There's a set of criteria going back to the 1800's that has now been met (can't go into detail, it's a proprietary source), and when the criteria are met then 100% of the time the bear market has always dropped below the previous major low, which in this case was the 666 low of 3/09. Statistics are made to be broken, but I'll take 100% odds every time. Bonds up until next June, and stocks down, with a few playable big stock rallies along the way. Then the tsunami wave reverses with a vengence.
With all the Elliott Wavers in sync, the Hindenburg Omen, head and shoulders, etc., this almost seems like a perfect bear trap setup, but apparently not. Rather I think it means that this drop will be quicker since the average investor is not going to hang onto "hope" as long this time and will get out and stay out. So this could be much like the 2007-09 drop, but more accelerated. :embarrest:
Oh, and regarding the H.O., of the 27 previous HO's in the last 25 years, 8 (29.6%) were followed by 15% or more drops within 4 months. The S&P closed at 1071.7 last Friday, the day of the HO confirmation. So a 15% drop would be to 911 by Christmas. That sounds easily doable and would make it 9 of the last 28 HO's producing a "crash", or 32%. I think this technical indicator has staying power no matter how many people follow it since it's a combination of so many things that in sum point to a fractured market where the big money is distributing stock to the little guys to be left holding the time bomb.
crws
Active member
Much as I hate to be a D&G'r, in 2006, a friend who is a compliance officer for a local credit union and I were discussing how long the self-perpetuating cycle of wealth, valuation, and expense could possibly maintain itself, and where it would lead if it crashed.
A revaluation in worth? A new definition of value?
What happens when all the poker chips of US assets are in China's grasp and we are left trying to pay the inflated price of "worth" with what pittance is left?
Does it mean what we owe to China must be devalued, so the average person can afford it?
Will it require a complete Chinese economic cycle with drastic drops of US consumer spending for them to get hungry and revalue, or will India consumers give them the boost to maintain a slower rate of growth that gradually bleeds us, as their manufacturing efficiency & capacity far exceeds ours.
Let's face it. A vast number of the refinanced to the max households in the US partied hard with new Chinese imports passed on through low-margin US retailers, and now, it's hangover time.
If this is an economic chess game, the last 10 years we've been playing checkers.
What do we have to sell the Chinese or that the Chinese even want to offset our debt?
Perhaps we are wrong in the phrasing "our addiction to oil" and it should be "additiction to cheap chinese crap".
At least oil has versatility.
A revaluation in worth? A new definition of value?
What happens when all the poker chips of US assets are in China's grasp and we are left trying to pay the inflated price of "worth" with what pittance is left?
Does it mean what we owe to China must be devalued, so the average person can afford it?
Will it require a complete Chinese economic cycle with drastic drops of US consumer spending for them to get hungry and revalue, or will India consumers give them the boost to maintain a slower rate of growth that gradually bleeds us, as their manufacturing efficiency & capacity far exceeds ours.
Let's face it. A vast number of the refinanced to the max households in the US partied hard with new Chinese imports passed on through low-margin US retailers, and now, it's hangover time.
If this is an economic chess game, the last 10 years we've been playing checkers.
What do we have to sell the Chinese or that the Chinese even want to offset our debt?
Perhaps we are wrong in the phrasing "our addiction to oil" and it should be "additiction to cheap chinese crap".
At least oil has versatility.
Tsunami
Well-known member
A rare bit of honesty on CNBC. That big bond "trade of the century" may be coming, but not yet. I think rates have much further to fall first, down to Japan levels of 1.2% on the 10-year etc.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1568296901&play=1
I saw that Ireland's debt was downgraded by S&P today, the whirlpool is starting to swirl faster.
I hope this guy and many others predicting hyperinflation are wrong and we instead fall into the more preferrable Japanese type of quagmire. We can muddle through that, but none of us will get through hyperinflation unscathed. What do you do to keep ahead of it? Buy the 2X gold fund DGP? I don't know.
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/2010/08/16/there-will-be-no-double-dip/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1568296901&play=1
I saw that Ireland's debt was downgraded by S&P today, the whirlpool is starting to swirl faster.
I hope this guy and many others predicting hyperinflation are wrong and we instead fall into the more preferrable Japanese type of quagmire. We can muddle through that, but none of us will get through hyperinflation unscathed. What do you do to keep ahead of it? Buy the 2X gold fund DGP? I don't know.
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/2010/08/16/there-will-be-no-double-dip/
Last edited:
Tsunami
Well-known member
I was monitoring this guys labeled chart (5th chart down) today, really good work. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600 It hit the lower green channel line early today (where I unloaded my puts), then bounced in the predicted wave 4 and hit the upper line late in the day perfectly, where I reloaded on the QQQQ puts. Next up should be a wave 5 down, bottoming Friday or Monday around 1020 to 1030, then a larger wave 4 up and 5 down to the 990-1010 area, followed by the first and probably only tradable rally in September. Love it when the Elliott Wave stuff actually works. Any significant further rally tomorrow changes things, but I don't see any really big rallies possible now that 8/26/10 is here and the big advance-decline line T #13 has run out (http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/1995-pres-adts20100824pdf.pdf).
Bonds got a rest today, but that up trend will continue for months in opposition to stocks except maybe on the really bad days when everything tanks.
Bonds got a rest today, but that up trend will continue for months in opposition to stocks except maybe on the really bad days when everything tanks.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Morgan Stanley - "Investors should be prepared to face financial oppression"
http://www.scribd.com/doc/36402437/MS-Default
http://www.scribd.com/doc/36402437/MS-Default
Tsunami
Well-known member
Market looks poised for a nice relief rally tomorrow if the GDP number isn't as bad as expected. I'm sure Uncle Ben will try to be supportive as well.
"Jingle mail" no longer just applies to homeowners. Commercial property prices are now down over 40% since October 2007. "Of the $1.4 trillion of commercial-real-estate debt coming due by the end of 2014, roughly 52% is attached to properties that are underwater"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703447004575449803607666216.html
"It is interesting that the Hindenburg Omen is now being blamed for the decline in stocks. When I added two filters to the traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen, which had three conditions that were developed by Jim Miekka, George Appel, and Fosberg, the statistical reliability rose dramatically. Before we added those two conditions, a fourth and fifth, the Hindenburg Omen had modest success, and was not getting much mainstream media attention. But now articles are showing up in Barrons, The Wall Street Journal, yahoo.com and other sites. They are quoting our research, the fourth and fifth conditions, without giving us the credit, which is disappointing, however the point is this indicator has gotten so much attention because it is enjoying a far greater success rate, and it is now being blamed for the recent decline. It called the crashes of 2007 and 2008. There were no other Hindenburg Omens since those two until now. The reliability our 2005 research gave to this indicator has made quite a difference in how seriously it is being taken.
This Omen is not the reason stocks are falling. Rather, the Omen is an indicator that identifies what the language of the market is telling us about the future for the stock market. It is the messenger, not the message. To blame this indicator for the past two weeks' decline is akin to cutting off the head of the messenger. Interesting. But there are a host of key patterns and indicators warning about the future for stocks. The language of the markets has a lot more to it than just the Hindenburg Omen. The pundits have the cause and effect backwards, which should be no surprise to those who believe in technical analysis..... "
Bob McHugh, 8/26/10
(just giving Bob a little credit, which he deserves)
"Jingle mail" no longer just applies to homeowners. Commercial property prices are now down over 40% since October 2007. "Of the $1.4 trillion of commercial-real-estate debt coming due by the end of 2014, roughly 52% is attached to properties that are underwater"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703447004575449803607666216.html
"It is interesting that the Hindenburg Omen is now being blamed for the decline in stocks. When I added two filters to the traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen, which had three conditions that were developed by Jim Miekka, George Appel, and Fosberg, the statistical reliability rose dramatically. Before we added those two conditions, a fourth and fifth, the Hindenburg Omen had modest success, and was not getting much mainstream media attention. But now articles are showing up in Barrons, The Wall Street Journal, yahoo.com and other sites. They are quoting our research, the fourth and fifth conditions, without giving us the credit, which is disappointing, however the point is this indicator has gotten so much attention because it is enjoying a far greater success rate, and it is now being blamed for the recent decline. It called the crashes of 2007 and 2008. There were no other Hindenburg Omens since those two until now. The reliability our 2005 research gave to this indicator has made quite a difference in how seriously it is being taken.
This Omen is not the reason stocks are falling. Rather, the Omen is an indicator that identifies what the language of the market is telling us about the future for the stock market. It is the messenger, not the message. To blame this indicator for the past two weeks' decline is akin to cutting off the head of the messenger. Interesting. But there are a host of key patterns and indicators warning about the future for stocks. The language of the markets has a lot more to it than just the Hindenburg Omen. The pundits have the cause and effect backwards, which should be no surprise to those who believe in technical analysis..... "
Bob McHugh, 8/26/10
(just giving Bob a little credit, which he deserves)
Market looks poised for a nice relief rally tomorrow if the GDP number isn't as bad as expected. I'm sure Uncle Ben will try to be supportive as well.
"Jingle mail" no longer just applies to homeowners. Commercial property prices are now down over 40% since October 2007. "Of the $1.4 trillion of commercial-real-estate debt coming due by the end of 2014, roughly 52% is attached to properties that are underwater"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748703447004575449803607666216.html
"It is interesting that the Hindenburg Omen is now being blamed for the decline in stocks. When I added two filters to the traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen, which had three conditions that were developed by Jim Miekka, George Appel, and Fosberg, the statistical reliability rose dramatically. Before we added those two conditions, a fourth and fifth, the Hindenburg Omen had modest success, and was not getting much mainstream media attention. But now articles are showing up in Barrons, The Wall Street Journal, yahoo.com and other sites. They are quoting our research, the fourth and fifth conditions, without giving us the credit, which is disappointing, however the point is this indicator has gotten so much attention because it is enjoying a far greater success rate, and it is now being blamed for the recent decline. It called the crashes of 2007 and 2008. There were no other Hindenburg Omens since those two until now. The reliability our 2005 research gave to this indicator has made quite a difference in how seriously it is being taken.
This Omen is not the reason stocks are falling. Rather, the Omen is an indicator that identifies what the language of the market is telling us about the future for the stock market. It is the messenger, not the message. To blame this indicator for the past two weeks' decline is akin to cutting off the head of the messenger. Interesting. But there are a host of key patterns and indicators warning about the future for stocks. The language of the markets has a lot more to it than just the Hindenburg Omen. The pundits have the cause and effect backwards, which should be no surprise to those who believe in technical analysis..... "
Bob McHugh, 8/26/10
(just giving Bob a little credit, which he deserves)
Tsunami,
Thanks for continued market analysis and articles. Assuming a new crash or downturn is inevitable, is it wiser wait it out in the G or the F fund? and why? Tia.
Tsunami
Well-known member
For the TSP, since we only get one attempt a month, I'll attempt to look ahead and decide based on the best guess of the Elliott Wave pattern when the biggest bounce of the month will occur. Smaller wave 2 and 4 bounces that are anything less than a week are just too hard to time. For September I'm not yet sure since the pattern is up in the air right now. Some have this current rally as a small wave 4 and others a larger wave 2, and there's a huge difference on what comes next. Maybe the pattern will clear up by 9/1. If we get some of those really nasty capitulation selloff's this Fall, those would be good opportunities to jump in, maybe. I'm content in the F fund otherwise since I think bonds are going continue to surprise people with interest rates already near the panic December 2008 lows and we haven't even had any really bad news yet. Our situation is much like Japan's and so I don't think we'll get a sudden reversal in interest rates any time soon. The government just can't allow it. I just hope they don't create hyperinflation by going overboard with money printing.
Looks like we're getting that relief rally I expected. Now I'll wait to reload on my trading account puts somewhere above 1060....looking for a 5 wave bounce from yesterday's late-day low.
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