Tsunami's Account Talk

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malyla said:
This is interesting stuff. Armstrong is always good for some deep thoughts.

Alevin,

Any thoughts how the US defaulting on our debt would affect our SS and TSP. Should we take out loans and buy that bunker while the money is worth something, or bet that deflation will benefit our TSP portfolio and leave it alone (protect our seed corn (XL-entlady))?

Not smart enough to figure this out and I haven't read enough history to even guess at how to protect my investment and retirement in the case of a default.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

Butting...
Might check around for those chinese goods you just can't live without...
I would be less worried about the USD / G than how the consumerism driven young chinese population forces their leaders to recoup what's owed them. :worried:
 
http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/chinese-workers-push-for-better-wages/19593310

"You see wages increasing in companies as well as cities and areas increasing their mandatory minimum wage," said Mary Gallagher, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the University of Michigan. "I think that's an indication that there at least continues to be quiet pressure on companies."
.....
And longtime China watchers caution against predicting when those changes might come. Li, the New York-based labor activist, says he expects to see a significant rise in wages over the next few years, but the Chinese government's plans remain unclear.

"The policies are very changeable," he said. "The decision-making process is not very transparent and we don't know what stage of the process the government is at, so it's very unpredictable."
 
Looks like a wave 2 rally began at this morning's low at the open. But in a bear market, the first day of wave 2's produce the biggest snap back gain. So, for me, being over 50 now and trying to reduce risk, I think it's already too late and too risky to try to jump in on this one. I'll wait for the bigger rally that should come in 2 or 3 weeks. So I'll put up with perhaps a fews days of losses in the F fund and falling back down in the tracker.

On the other hand, Laundry is still bullish and expecting the market to take off into late August, up to the 1150's. Hmmm. He's the only one I follow that's still bullish though. Maybe I'll sell my IFT's on eBay.
 
I was simply trying to be competitive and at the same time being subtly facetious. I'm sure he'll wait for me to catch up.
 
Birchtree said:
I was simply trying to be competitive and at the same time being subtly facetious. I'm sure he'll wait for me to catch up.
Click to expand...

Your sarcasm is always obvious. I think the odds of you catching me (for 2010) at this point are about the same as for the Federal government balancing the budget this Fall. ;)

By the way, I sold those BP puts Friday morning for a tidy gain. Will look to rebuy them if it can manage to get back up to $40 and fill last Wednesday mornings gap. Also sold the rest of my short positions Friday, waiting for this little bounce to play out.

Not watching the market much today. Got other things on my mind, "prepping" for my first routine colonoscopy this afternoon...oh what fun it is. Sorry, TMI... :sick:
 
Just stopped in to say thanks for your work Tsu, I always look forward to your commentary. Much appreciated!
 
No man - you are given permission during recovery room period to let off gas. I tried to make the curtains move when I had mine.
 
Well, I didn't make curtains move but I did ruffle the bed sheets with a few last night....

This chart caught my eye today....
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TGqtDT3DlxI/AAAAAAAADSo/eMRHtunLGzk/s1600/spx-17-2.png
Note that in a few days the down trend and up trend lines will intersect at the same point where the 200dma also happens to be, right about 1116, and that also happens to be at the maximum 78% fibonacci retracement level for this rally. So perhaps 1116 could be the target, in an ABC-X-ABC double-zig zag whiz bam zippity doo dah rally....maybe even with a Hindenburg Omen confirmation day thrown in.

That's assuming it doesn't roll over right now at 1100 (50% retracement), or at the 61.8% retracement level of 1106. Anything above 1116 and I'll cry uncle and say that 1129 will be bettered, and we'll peak closer to that magic T-theory date of 8/26/10, maybe 1150ish.
 
http://www.forexlive.com/125957/all/moodysusukfrancegermany-distance-to-dwngrade-reduced

Sounds like Green-speak, or in English, a bunch of hooey....they're trying to keep from spooking the markets but I don't think anyone is fooled by the debt issues any more. Germany is relatively in good shape, but will be dragged down too.

Bulls need to cross their fingers that a wave 2 rally didn't finish today as shown in this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=show[s174911668]&disp=P (link is not posting right, copy in entire URL for the close up chart I was referring to)

Based on how the dollar looks though, I think the dollar can pull back down some more for a couple days, so stocks could rally more, maybe.....
 
Looks like that chart is wrong anyway since the dollar is still falling and giving a boost to stocks temporarily. Yesterdays high was more likely the first wave A peak of a larger A-B-C rally that goes up to 1106 or 1116. Beyond 1116, then Terry Laundry and his t-theory becomes the master of the universe if the market peaks near his 8/26 date that he's been pointing to for about a year now.

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/adts20100813pdf-3.pdf
 
The bearish chatter in the media, blogs, newsletters, message boards is getting deafening....all the Elliott wave counters have it starting a massive wave 3 down right NOW, but with options expiration 2 days away, and with the slow summer trading for two more weeks, that seems unlikely. After listening to my #1 guru's update this morning http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html then observing that gold has suddenly reversed and exploded higher just as he said to expect, I have to go with his short-term bullishness up to 1150ish and decided to give it a shot and got in. Hindenburg schmindenburg, should have got in Monday. The bullishness in bonds is also extreme and needs to work off a little steam. I covered my latest trading short positions for small gains as well. Not sure about the dollar so avoided the I fund, 50C and 50S. What the heck.

Now (after hoping for a sideways to down day today) I can be a cheerleader for a week. Here we go PPT, Here we go!! :D
 
Well it never hurts to pay up but now you've reduced my potential to catch you leaving me deflated. But no matter, I'll keep climbing the tracker until I'm closer. The S fund may be my helper.
 
Does anyone else think the Fed discussions about disbanding Freddie & Fannie and starting a new housing mort. program is a backhanded way to monitize about 8 trillion in us debt and further to flood the markets with reduced value dollars? I.E. Cause a huge market rally right into the midterm elections.
PS. Sorry for tagging onto yout thread, couldn't figure out how to start a new discussion
 
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