Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

A good lesson on wedges from Chuck Young (7/29 video):
http://blog.rebeltraders.net/market-update-videos/

The apex of the current wedge is at about 1170...it started at 1010, that's 160 points. A proper wedge should end about 75% of the way through, which in time will be in about a week, and in price will be at 1130-40. Hmm, 1130 and 1140 are also the Elliott wave targets.

So my guess is the dollar bottoms near its 200dma next week, and at the same time the S&P peaks at about 1130 or 1140. Would feel better about it though if it can rally the rest of the day and close above 1100, and the Nasdaq-100 needs to hold that downsloping trendline. A low right about now (about 2 pm Eastern) at 1094 would be a normal 61.8% pullback for wave 2, then a strong wave 3 push up into Monday would be next.

If it keeps falling......uh oh.

 

[Tsunami]

The dollar has reached the 200dma target and is in perfect position for an imminent sharp reversal higher. Here comes wave 3, up in the dollar and down in stocks, especially the I fund.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TFiF7h4cn6I/AAAAAAAAGzg/SNhfe0PHaj4/s1600/dolalr.png

One more surge in stocks, a throwover above the wedge, perhaps up to as high as Laundry's upper boundry at 1155ish (maybe with Friday's "good" unemployment report?, or maybe a sell the news reaction to BP putting the final plug in that well?), that would put the finishing touches on this wave 2 rally.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TFiD1YT27CI/AAAAAAAAGzY/VeLrr_msqHQ/s1600/spx5.png

I've noticed a lot of people piling into stocks, some people even mocking those that aren't in stocks...sounds like a top to me. As for me, I've got my list of put options to buy real soon.

Tick, tick, tick

 

[crws]

That F Fund is serenading me like a Siren's Song...
Eyes on the ball!

The dollar has reached the 200dma target and is in perfect position for an imminent sharp reversal higher. Here comes wave 3, up in the dollar and down in stocks, especially the I fund.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TFiF7h4cn6I/AAAAAAAAGzg/SNhfe0PHaj4/s1600/dolalr.png

One more surge in stocks, a throwover above the wedge, perhaps up to as high as Laundry's upper boundry at 1155ish (maybe with Friday's "good" unemployment report?, or maybe a sell the news reaction to BP putting the final plug in that well?), that would put the finishing touches on this wave 2 rally.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TFiD1YT27CI/AAAAAAAAGzY/VeLrr_msqHQ/s1600/spx5.png

I've noticed a lot of people piling into stocks, some people even mocking those that aren't in stocks...sounds like a top to me. As for me, I've got my list of put options to buy real soon.

Tick, tick, tick

 

[Tsunami]

This sounds familiar, someone looking at the chart of Canadian home prices and concluding that prices can't possible fall in Canada, nah, not here....yeah right.
http://takloo.wordpress.com/2010/07/09/is-canadas-housing-market-about-to-collapse-us-style/

For example, the prices in Vancouver B.C. are quite reasonable right? Check it out....
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/original.html
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/

Where oil comes from...
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/03/science/03oil.html?_r=1

 

[Warrenlm]

Euphoria still on CNBC early this morning. Interview with Long Beach director focused on growth of imports. Expectation of continued growth and his thoughts were that retailers are expecting a much better holiday season.

 

[crws]

For example, the prices in Vancouver B.C. are quite reasonable right? Check it out....
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/original.html
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/

Where oil comes from...
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/03/science/03oil.html?_r=1

Good articles- the crack shack is hilarious

 

[crws]

Euphoria still on CNBC early this morning. Interview with Long Beach director focused on growth of imports. Expectation of continued growth and his thoughts were that retailers are expecting a much better holiday season.

Speaking of crack.... who used all the tin foil .....for hats?!?

 

[nnuut]

This sounds familiar, someone looking at the chart of Canadian home prices and concluding that prices can't possible fall in Canada, nah, not here....yeah right.
http://takloo.wordpress.com/2010/07/09/is-canadas-housing-market-about-to-collapse-us-style/

For example, the prices in Vancouver B.C. are quite reasonable right? Check it out....
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/original.html
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/

Where oil comes from...
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/03/science/03oil.html?_r=1

Diatomaceous OIL, I never believed it came from dinosaurs there are other opinions.

Contact: Alexander Goncharov
agoncharov@ciw.edu
202-478-8947
Carnegie Institution

Hydrocarbons in the deep Earth?

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-07/ci-hit072409.php

 

[Tsunami]

Looks like the exact same drill as last Friday. Last Friday the lower boundary of the wedge held at 1088 and the markets took off, especially on Monday. This time the lower boundary of the wedge....pause, as the kid gets out his ruler.....looks like about 1110. So if that holds there should be at least one more push higher. Looks good, so far....and I see that the S&P bounced perfectly off of its 20 day moving average.

 

[crws]

Looks like the exact same drill as last Friday. Last Friday the lower boundary of the wedge held at 1088 and the markets took off, especially on Monday. This time the lower boundary of the wedge....pause, as the kid gets out his ruler.....looks like about 1110. So if that holds there should be at least one more push higher. Looks good, so far....and I see that the S&P bounced perfectly off of its 20 day moving average.

Setting up for OPEX...
If the trend holds, it will be +200- 500 up to Thursday 8/19
We'll see.
Btw- I keep reposting this uTube because it is so relevant- your turn today!
the meat starts after 2:30m

 

[Tsunami]

So, today is that long-awaited 8/10/10 lowest ever Bradley model turn date... http://www.marketclues.net/bradley.gif and a new moon...have the magical mystical powers caused wave 3 down to begin? More importantly it looks like to me that 80 held in the dollar index and the wave 3 up (for the dollar) turn has begun.

The Battle of the Wedge today lies at about 1116, which also happens to be the 200-dma support. If that support breaks then the potential is there for a quick drop back down to 1010 as soon as Labor Day, for starters. If support holds again, then the 1150's by next week still beckons.

Based on what the dollar is doing right now though, I think the wave 2 top (in stocks) is in unless there's a pretty startling Fed announcement today. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

 

[nasa1974]

So, today is that long-awaited 8/10/10 lowest ever Bradley model turn date... http://www.marketclues.net/bradley.gif and a new moon...have the magical mystical powers caused wave 3 down to begin? More importantly it looks like to me that 80 held in the dollar index and the wave 3 up (for the dollar) turn has begun.

The Battle of the Wedge today lies at about 1116, which also happens to be the 200-dma support. If that support breaks then the potential is there for a quick drop back down to 1010 as soon as Labor Day, for starters. If support holds again, then the 1150's by next week still beckons.

Based on what the dollar is doing right now though, I think the wave 2 top (in stocks) is in unless there's a pretty startling Fed announcement today. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

I'm hoping that we see good numbers through next week. I do not plan on being fully invested going into the end of August and probably most of September.

 

[crws]

I'm hoping that we see good numbers through next week. I do not plan on being fully invested going into the end of August and probably most of September.

Aye!
Out to F next Thurs COB, and second that Sept & Oct stuff. No ST miracles in the hat.

 

[jdphx]

Aye!
Out to F next Thurs COB, and second that Sept & Oct stuff. No ST miracles in the hat.

I'm positioned to join you crws... but are you going ALL to F?
Seems like bonds have had their big run, to me anyways...
I might put a little there but haven't decided yet.

 

[Tsunami]

As the realization that the dollar's turn up into wave 3 has begun, stocks can't hang on much longer. One of these plunges will penetrate that lower wedge boundary soon. Then, as the dollar soars to above 100, losses in stocks similar to the first chart below can be expected...

http://www.financialsense.com/contr...ghts-on-the-S%26P-500-and-the-US-dollar-index

 

[Birchtree]

There have been times gone by when a stronger dollar meant a stronger economy and a stronger market. The correlation to last year is about to start a new paradigm. By the way, I still covet your tracker slot - if you make no changes because of bearishness it won't be long because this bull ride is just beginning.

 

[crws]

As the realization that the dollar's turn up into wave 3 has begun, stocks can't hang on much longer. One of these plunges will penetrate that lower wedge boundary soon. Then, as the dollar soars to above 100, losses in stocks similar to the first chart below can be expected...

Good info, and although I had a big spiele written, to me what it really boils down to, is that without a structured & hedged LT strategy with ST growth opportunity deviations, you will always be trying to out-guess the market's moves and end up feast or famine.
I believe a perpetually weak dollar is economically unsustainable.
I would like to be able go to Canada once again where our dollar was worth 1.30 of theirs.... and they loved to see it! Especially when I spent it in Victoria on locally brewed 6% BEER!
8/10/2010 1 Canadian dollars = 0.9693 US dollar

 

[Tsunami]

Next time you go to Victoria, stay at Point No Point resort in Sooke. gorgeous place...there's a nice English style pub nearby for that beer. http://www.pointnopointresort.com/cabins.html That photo on the left with the jacuzzi overlooking the Juan de Fuca strait looks like the unit we stayed in.

Looks like that wedge is broken with gusto this morning. Everyone expecting a final run to 1140 or 1150 may be about to get burned. If T-Theory is correct, the initial fall won't end until as late as early December.

 

[crws]

Next time you go to Victoria, stay at Point No Point resort in Sooke. gorgeous place...there's a nice English style pub nearby for that beer. http://www.pointnopointresort.com/cabins.html That photo on the left with the jacuzzi overlooking the Juan de Fuca strait looks like the unit we stayed in.

Looks like that wedge is broken with gusto this morning. Everyone expecting a final run to 1140 or 1150 may be about to get burned. If T-Theory is correct, the initial fall won't end until as late as early December.

Yea, the market's looking ugly...

Those cabins look awesome. The Puget Sound area is one of my favorite places.

 

[Tsunami]

... There will be the dreaded "Hindenburg Omen" in August as the distribution intensifies at the top....

Back on March 5th I pointed out that I expected to see a Hindenburg Omen in August at the top. Yesterday we nearly got the first one since 2007, or at least close enough for government work. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t Yesterday's data shows 105 new higs and 67 new lows, 70 was needed to reach the 2.2% criteria. It takes a second day like that to "confirm" the signal. All the other criteria were met. Just another sign that we're at a major top. Since the April 26th top there have now been twelve 90% down days and ten 90% up days, another unhealthy sign.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_omen