Tsunami's Account Talk

If it plays out like this, next Tuesday and Wednesday could be huge gifts to the upside, but then I keep hearing Clint Eastwood in my ear..."do you feel lucky punk?..."

"...the New York Fed has issued a survey to Primary Dealers, which asks for suggestions on the size of QE2 as well as the time over which it would be completed. It also asks firms how often they anticipate the Fed will re-evaluate the program, and to estimate its ultimate size. This is nothing short of a stunning indication of three things: i) that the Fed is most likely completely paralyzed due to the escalating confrontation between the Hawks and the Doves, and that not even Bernanke believes has has sufficient clout to prevent what Time magazine has dubbed a potential opening salvo into a chain of events that could lead to civil war: in effect Bernanke will use the PD's decision as a trump card to the Hawks and say the market will plunge unless at least this much money is printed, ii) that the Fed is effectively asking the Primary Dealers to act as underwriters on whatever announcement the Fed will come up with, and thus prop the market, and, most importantly, iii) that the PDs will most likely demand the highest possible amount, using Goldman's $2-4 trillion as a benchmark, and not only frontrun the ultimate issuance knowing full well what the syndicate of 18 will decide in advance of what the final amount will be, but will also ramp stocks on November 3 to make the actual QE announcement seem like a surprise. This also means that the Primary Dealers of America, which include among them such hedge funds as Goldman Sachs, such mortgage frauds as Bank of America, such insolvent foreign banks as Deutsche, RBS, UBS and RBS, and such middle-market excuses for banks as Jefferies, are now in control of US monetary, and as we explain below fiscal, policy. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paralyzed-fed-defers-decision-monetary-policy-primary-dealers

"Things have been pretty good for the last 60, 70 years in North America, and they think they’ll be good forever. It isn’t going to happen that way.”...."I guarantee hyperinflation" - John Embry
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._John_Embry_-_I_Guarantee_Hyperinflation.html

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I was surprised this report http://www.iea.org/weo/index.asp wasn't front page news when it came out two weeks ago. The IEA has finally admitted that Peak Oil is behind us, it occurred in about 2006. This is huge news, not just for the nightmare energy crisis it will create, but it will hold down growth rates around the world for many years until we ween ourselves off oil somehow.

"What this means is very, very simple. There will be an energy crisis in the near future that will make anything we've experienced so far seem like a pleasant memory."

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/economy-set-starve/48474
 
Jimmy Carter said it would come in the mid 1980s, might need to adjust that a bit I'd say. Peaked out, wow That should mean that the Global Warming threat is over!:rolleyes:
 
Peaked out, wow That should mean that the Global Warming threat is over!:rolleyes:

At the rate China is burning coal, maybe we can reach "peak coal" in a few decades, then that statement will definitely be true! I'm a believer that if global warming is real, the problem will solve itself through our thirst for fossil fuels. The world's population has doubled since I was born, besides peak oil, in the next 50 years we could see peak uranium, coal, copper, water, pretty much everything. We need those aliens on "The Event" to give us the secret to a limitless energy source.

I think anyone living in the northwest is struggling with the global warming concept this week though. :laugh:
 
I think anyone living in the northwest is struggling with the global warming concept this week though. :laugh:

No worries here! I insulated walls this summer-never done before, plus added extra insulation up to code in the attic. looking to see how much my winter heating bills go down this winter compared to last winter. :D

Go to remember too, just like the market, there are long, intermediate and short-term trends and cycles, and the short and intermediates nest within the bigger trends/cycles. Pacific Decadal Oscillation just started this year (intermediate-30 year cycle of cooler and wetter), plus La Nina (short-term-cooler and wetter)-countertrend against the longerterm trends-for those who believe in the longer term trends.

I'm more worried about water supply-comes from snowpack, which has been noticeably below norms for years now. and more worried about base flow and water temps in mid summer for critters used to cold water and enough to swim in.

Oh, and for increased midwinter flooding potentials too in the short and intermediate trends within the longer trend-less precip stored as snow=more water flowing in winter. ever seen mega rainstorm on saturated soils? or rain on frozen soils? or rain on heavy wet snowpack? None of the above are pretty. I don't live on 100-year floodplain but still keep my flood insurance up to date for the black swan event.
 
Coal and Gasoline both pollute, do you want SOx or NOx?

If I wasn't clear, what I meant was that at some point in this century greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are going to start dropping off since we'll have used up most of the fossil fuels. So even if countries like China and India don't worry about pollution controls like we do, the problem will solve itself and the atmosphere can return to normal. So no matter which side of the global warming debate you're on, the issue will go away eventually...in the mean time though we have to worry about how much damage will be done and how long it will linger beyond "peak GHG emissions"....

By Friday markets should be finishing wave B up of the ABC wave 4 correction http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TO0vAo4wG9I/AAAAAAAAEW0/NbpZ-Mirk98/s1600/spx-24-1.png
Still looks to be on track to bottom in early to mid-December, somewhere below 1175. I'm hoping so anyway, I've made 3 bad timing moves in a row and want to get back in for the Santa rally.
 
Charles Nenner is sticking to his bearish forecasts....
http://marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com/2010/11/charles-nenner-predictions-for-2011.html

Very interesting story. Is this how wars of the future will be waged?
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/11/26/secret-agent-crippled-irans-nuclear-ambitions/

VIX breakout...
http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/11/vix-break-out.html

Desperate moves as the dominos fall...
http://www.opinion-maker.org/2010/11/the-u-s-economy-stand-by-for-more-worse-news/

Smart money hedging for a market crash like never before....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/smart-money-preparing-sell-never

Hungary follows Argentina in confiscating private retirement money to pay the governments debt...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ension-fund-ultimatum-nightmare-for-some.html

Crisis reaching Belgium...
http://www.safehaven.com/article/19119/the-next-sovereign-crisis-belgium

And Italy...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...s-Ireland-bail-out-fails-to-calm-markets.html

Richard Russell turning bearish again...
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...tocks_Repeating_1930,_Gold_Building_Base.html

I could keep going, but that's enough gloom for now. That Santa rally is coming, but not quite yet.
 
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Very interesting story. Is this how wars of the future will be waged?
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/11/26/secret-agent-crippled-irans-nuclear-ambitions/
And he says the most likely confederates are the United States, because it has the technical skills to make the virus, Germany, because reverse-engineering Siemen’s product would have taken years without it, and Russia, because of its familiarity with both the Iranian nuclear plant and Siemen’s systems.

Interesting as in most USPS systems rely on Siemens technology?
 
It seems that most bearish news is either predicated on assumptions that a specific bad event will happen (tax rates not extended, unemployment benefits not extended, etc.) or just conceptual, long term (like gee the sky must be falling... isn't it?) The story on insider trading is offset by comments after. The news about the computer worm shows world capabilities greater than a bomb and war. It seems ingenuity will muddle us through. With so many business leaders talking so positively of the future, maybe Dennis is right and a rocket up is beginning to fire?
 
It seems that most bearish news is either predicated on assumptions that a specific bad event will happen (tax rates not extended, unemployment benefits not extended, etc.) or just conceptual, long term (like gee the sky must be falling... isn't it?) The story on insider trading is offset by comments after. The news about the computer worm shows world capabilities greater than a bomb and war. It seems ingenuity will muddle us through. With so many business leaders talking so positively of the future, maybe Dennis is right and a rocket up is beginning to fire?

Well, he does have a point about the bond market being overweight.
But last time Wall Street ripped off Main street so blatantly it took 10 years for the trust to return.
I am very jaded that the bull is for show to draw out the bond money, then the sh!t will follow.
Then again, wtf do I know, and that, to me is the crux of the issue, wtf do Ma&Pa know, either, except to try and hang on to their cash?
 
Lite the fuse baby - SPX 1256 here before the week closes. I can't resist saying this - most mom and pops were getting investment advise from professionals that were younger than their own children - mostly with limited experience similar to BHO. What a shame to miss an 80% rally off the March 9th lows - but we got another 80% run to go so all is not lost. Let'em buy equities and make me money.
 
Hungary,Ireland now France.... How long before Uncle Sam comes for our TSP?? 14 Trillion dollar debt is a huge burden, Pols will be looking for all available dollars..
 
14 trillion is manageable to service assuming the economy recovers and grow and revenues increase. But, the deficits into the future cause the foreign financed portion to grow too much and will necessitate US citizens taking on more of the debt.
 
Looks like the markets are rolling over here for an overdue pullback
http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/12/money-flow-t-status-reviewupdate.html

So here we are in December, we're still being told that inflation is around 1%, but in the real world this is how 2010 has looked in reality:
101207_The-Real-Cost-of-Living.gif


Taking a look at a few items in my own home budget, things where I can compare apples to apples from 2009 to 2010, here's some of my examples....

Property taxes - Up 5.4%
Gas & electric - Up 17.25% to $217.80/month on average
Water & Sewer & Garbage - Up 2.2%
Newspaper - Up 7.7%
Gasoline - Same two cars, but up from 9.25 cents/mile in 2009 to 13.05 cents/mile in 2010, up 41%
Health insurance premiums - Up 9.0%

So the CPI is up 1.1%? Yeah right.
 
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