Tsunami's Account Talk

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The following is a bit preliminary since the TSP won't post the final share prices for 2010 until Monday, so this is based on my estimated S fund share price of 21.248 for 12/31/10.

The modifed (I tweaked this: http://*********.com/seasonal.php to improve the results) Seasonal Strategy system I've been tracking finished the year like this.
At +34.74% it finished right there with the Sentiment Survey for the year:

Month... Fund... Return... Cumulative
Jan.......... S....... -2.43%..... -2.43%
Feb......... S......... 4.89%..... 2.34%
Mar......... C......... 6.04%..... 8.52%
Apr......... C......... 1.58%..... 10.24%
May........ C........ -7.99%..... 1.43%
Jun.......... F........ 1.56%..... 3.01%
Jul.......... C........ 7.01%..... 10.23%
Aug......... F........ 1.28%..... 11.64%
Sep......... F........ 0.17%..... 11.83%
Oct......... C........ 8.92%..... 21.81%
Nov......... S........ 3.00%..... 25.46%
Dec........ S......... 7.39%......34.74%

This system only requires six moves each year (just follow the same fund moves every year), and has you in the market during the four earnings season months. Da Boyz are so good at manipulating down expections then "surprising" to the upside, it makes sense that you always want to be in stocks during those four months. Since 1988 this system would have averaged +16.34% per year through 2009 (assuming the calculator on that web site is correct.....and a side note, TSPTalk rocks compared to that site, many kudos to Tom for building and improving on this site). With 2010's result of about 34.74%, that will bump up the average return since 1988 to about 17.14%.

Seems like simply following this, with perhaps an occasional well-timed out-in move to avoid obvious pullbacks and the worst of bear markets (if that's possible), and utilizing the I fund during dollar downdrafts, one could do quite well.

Happy New Year to all, and don't give away any lottery tickets....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppHItfwPQSk
 
Moral of the story is, "do not scratch ticket in front of the giver".

I'm still chuckling at that one.

(metal thunking sound) Hit him again lady he's still twitching.......
 
Tsunami said:
The modifed (I tweaked this: http://*********.com/seasonal.php to improve the results) Seasonal Strategy system I've been tracking finished the year like this.
At +34.74% it finished right there with the Sentiment Survey for the year:

Month... Fund... Return... Cumulative
Jan.......... S....... -2.43%..... -2.43%
Feb......... S......... 4.89%..... 2.34%
Mar......... C......... 6.04%..... 8.52%
Apr......... C......... 1.58%..... 10.24%
May........ C........ -7.99%..... 1.43%
Jun.......... F........ 1.56%..... 3.01%
Jul.......... C........ 7.01%..... 10.23%
Aug......... F........ 1.28%..... 11.64%
Sep......... F........ 0.17%..... 11.83%
Oct......... C........ 8.92%..... 21.81%
Nov......... S........ 3.00%..... 25.46%
Dec........ S......... 7.39%......34.74%
Click to expand...

I just noticed a boo boo in my calculation...the October C fund return was 3.80%, not 8.92% (that was Septembers return, which would have been missed with this strategy)....that lowers the 2010 return of this strategy to 28.39%. Still good though.
 
"It is truly do or die time for the perma-bears."
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/
This is the first time I've seen an Elliott wave guy entertain the idea of a bullish hyperinflationary wave count.

With inflation heating up so fast now, I wonder if the government will be able to stick to the two year pay freeze.......... .

Inflation Jumps in Europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Inflation-Jumps-in-nytimes-130499028.html;_ylt=AsOkxtbyRQJ2NQZftSl7H_67YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2bmRqbGQwBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDd2hhdHlvdXNob3Vs?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode

Chile Opts for Record Intervention to Stem Peso Rise
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/9434171

Beijing Raises Minimum Wage 21%
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/30f7f9e0-1277-11e0-b4c8-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F30f7f9e0-1277-11e0-b4c8-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fpiyned

German Inflation Unexpectedly Quickens
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-29/german-inflation-unexpectedly-accelerates-as-prices-advanced-in-december.html

Venezuela Devalues Bolivar
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-30/venezuela-devalues-bolivar-by-scrapping-rate-for-essential-import-items.html

Protests Intensify in Bolivia Over Gasoline Prices
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101230/ap_on_bi_ge/lt_bolivia_gasoline

India holds emergency meeting to deal with price inflation
http://www.businessinsider.com/india-holds-emergency-meeting-to-deal-with-price-inflation-2010-12

Soaring Metal Prices Ring Death Knell for 25 paise Coins
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/soaring-metal-prices-ring-death-knell-for-25p-coins/731345/0

Prices Soar on South American Drought
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052970204204004576049932838994642.html
 
Tsunami said:
Regarding the mutual fund option for TSP being considered, since trading costs would be borne by the individual, it would make sense for them to drop the IFT limits for that portion of your account as well. Sounds to good to be true so it probably won't happen.....
http://www.federalnewsradio.com/index.php?nid=22&sid=2221678

Someone out there has $3.9 million in their TSP, wow...
http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=20&sid=2223107
Click to expand...

"be advised that most if not all of the million dollar accounts were transferred into the government TSP by people who made their big bucks in the private sector."

Go figure...
 
Municipal bonds really got whacked today and MUB is resting on an important trendline:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TS9uYY702SI/AAAAAAAAE5U/j1KFHRjHZ90/s1600/munis-13-1.png

Put that together with JTH's chart of AGG that shows a completed bearish wedge perhaps (and it looks like a completed wave 4 in Elliott wave terms), and bonds seem poised to either tumble hard tomorrow or take off. Just a guess, but perhaps tomorrow's CPI number comes in higher than expected (as did today's PPI number but was pretty much ignored) and that sends interest rates higher tomorrow, and bonds falling.

Meanwhile Intel's earnings were good enough that it's jumping after hours and may help drag the entire market higher tomorrow, but could it be the final spike before "the" top as this guys squiggle count shows? Hmmm. :confused:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600
 
Really stretched here, significant short term upside looks unlikely without a pullback....

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TS5PIUnreEI/AAAAAAAAJqY/flFU1SNCkSc/s1600-h/WeeklyEMASpread[2].png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TS-UiNvwSXI/AAAAAAAAE5c/me4QutBYf6w/s1600/bp-13.png

...but I suspect da boyz will push it up to 1300 by the end of options expiration week next week at the end of Terry Laundry's current short T#2 which ends on 1/24/11 (not February as it says):

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/dailychart20110107pdf.pdf

My finger is near the trigger, but if tomorrow is strong enough to get the McClellan volume oscillator up through that cash buildup line on Laundry's chart, the odds improve for the rally to burst higher one more time up to near 1/24.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/

http://www.ttheory.com/
 
Charles Nenner's 2011 predictions. Lot's of detail if you listen the whole thing. He's never shy about making predictions.
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/january-10-2011-charles-nenner.html

Lovely Lara agrees with Nenner's stand on the dollar, it's the best horse in the glue factory and it's going up, thus the I fund will continue to suffer.
http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/

Some related stuff on Nenner's favorite investment area, wheat and corn:
http://factoidz.com/how-to-invest-in-wheat-and-agriculture/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=DBA&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=JJG

http://www.ipathetn.com/JJG-overview.jsp?investorType=pro

Martin Armstrong's latest, Are You Ready To Rumble?
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Are%20You%20Ready%20to%20Rumble%2001-05-2011.pdf

Go Seahawks! That run actually moved the seismographs in Seattle....
"We looked at the stations when Marshawn Lynch started to run. We could start to see some high pitched noise, I think the people screaming. Within a few seconds there was a rumbling and it lasted about half a minute, and I think it lasted the whole time he was running, and then tens of seconds afterwards," says John Vidali, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic network.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynn7VGY2Asc
 
Last edited:
S&P%20500%20and%20quantitative%20easing%2014%20Jan%202011.GIF


http://www.fgmr.com/not-only-commodities-are-signaling-hyperinflation.html
 
We need to cut them some slack. They are still learning. Ben now knows to announce QE3 well before the scheduled end of QE2.

Is anyone doing a slope analysis to help determine the ramp up rates coming from QE3, 4, 5, etc? Will the Fed constrain the amounts of each to keep the graph line level?
 
 
I see you're sitting nicely at #16 on the tracker but locked out of any trading for the next 7 days. Please be prepared to have me in your backyard before the month ends. I'm resting at #125 thanks to the games from the I fund - but that'll all return.
 
S&P predicts a 10% drop in the market http://www.cnbc.com/id/41295485 then promptly downgraded Japan's debt yesterday to get the ball rolling. And the timing was perfect since the Elliott waves were showing an imminent top. Nice work. I also read where a couple weeks ago Glenn Neely was predicting "the" top of the entire rally since 3/09 to occur about 1/28 near 1300. I don't know if I agree with that, but the bloggers are excited and busy posting charts today.

Looks to me like Sign Stealer just about has this month wrapped up to be on top of the tracker.
 
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