Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

Can you talk a little on your understanding of relationships between TLT, AGG and our F Fund? They don't always seem to move in the same way. What are the key influences on their value?

Well let's see....I've never used bonds much in my investing so am no expert, and pretty much despise the F fund since I seem to get burned every time I get into it, but...

My understanding is that our F fund is equivalent to AGG, the iShares Barclay's Aggragate Fund. It's a mix of bonds and notes: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=AGG+Holdings interesting, there's even some sort of gold note in there. Let's see if AGG's return matches the F fund....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AGG+Historical+Prices
AGG has dropped 1.475% from 12/31/10 through 2/9/11, but I see it pays a monthly dividend, the last one was 0.316 cents/share on 2/1, when the share price was 105.66, so that was about 0.299%, reducing the loss for the year from 1.475% to 1.176%.

Meanwhile the F fund has dropped from 14.2295 on 12/31 to 14.1078 on 2/9, or a loss of 0.855%. Hmm, I have no idea how to explain the discrepancy, nor do I see a jump in share price on 2/1 to add in that dividend. Perhaps the F fund isn't an exact match to AGG but is close.

As for TLT, it just tracks the 20 year note I believe, and since longer term rates have been rising faster, it should be falling faster than the F fund....

Lets see: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?a=&b=&c=&d=1&e=10&f=2011&g=d&s=tlt

Yep, TLT is down from 94.12 to 89.22, a 4.9% drop, with a 32 cent dividend on 21 reducing that a little.

Meanwhile, TBT is up 9.53% this year, a big winner as the Fed loses control of the economy. TBT is "ultrashort" the 20 year note, so it goes up about 2 times faster than TLT is going down.

 

[anthony]

I call that a fair assessment. Thanks for your feedback.

I've never been a big F Fund fan, likely for the same reason you site in your opening sentence, but also due to a lack of understanding. For some reason stock pricing seems so simplified to me that it makes bond pricing or associated indexes seem like a lot of smoke and mirrors.

 

[Tsunami]

Here comes that 100% S&P 500 rally point from the 3/9/09 bottom at 666.79. 1333.58 will do it. The Elliott waves are lining up perfectly for a potential top of some significance here....oh ghost of Jesse Livermore, should I go short?....

"Legendary Trader" Marty Schwartz is among those calling for a top here.
http://tmacktrading.blogspot.com/

http://elliottwavetrendsandcharts.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/spx-14.png

 

[Tsunami]

Seems like all the juice has been squeezed from this lemon....

 

[Tsunami]

Where's the wall of worry? Even that has disappeared...even Amoeba is bullish!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bullish-sentiment-is-high-maybe-too-high-2011-02-15

Heck, even Richard Russell is bullish....
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/richard-russell/technical-outlook-is-still-bullish

"Kress believes the “trailing edge” of the financial storm will begin by next year and he says it could be a tsunami.....when the current 120-year/60-year cycles bottom in 2014, the United States will experience a revolutionary transformation...With all of SineScope’s cycles being in the down phase for the first time since 1890, the potential for the worst of anything to occur exists. This elicits some very disarming implications for the U.S.A. and our lifestyles for the next three years." - Ah, there's my name again....
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/crisis-high-2011

 

[Tsunami]

Boy, had to go to page 3 to resurrect my thread...

First cracks in the dam are appearing, emerging markets, banks, transports....
http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

Looks like we're in a very weak wave 2 or b bounce still today, but for the Dow and S&P maybe all they can manage is a sideways triangle pattern before the next fall.

The dollar is getting back down to the support line...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3615958&cmd=show[s213590577]&disp=O

 

[Tsunami]

Expectations are that it's a virtual certainty for inflation to take off from here, but there's still a real possibility that everything could be setting up for an unexpected deflationary round 2 crash this Spring, perhaps sparked with the end of QE2. Gold for example is setting up to have a major break in it's 10+ year run and peak around May/June (then fall to around $750, or lower perhaps, before starting the next big run) at the same time stocks peak, base metals, oil, everything....

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-...AAAAAAAAIyc/67aBQSRpAmY/s1600/gold+weekly.png

I wonder if such a turn will occur near Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model major turn data of 6/13/11, which he developed way back in the late 80's.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm

 

[crws]

Expectations are that it's a virtual certainty for inflation to take off from here, but there's still a real possibility that everything could be setting up for an unexpected deflationary round 2 crash this Spring, perhaps sparked with the end of QE2. Gold for example is setting up to have a major break in it's 10+ year run and peak around May/June (then fall to around $750, or lower perhaps, before starting the next big run) at the same time stocks peak, base metals, oil, everything....

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-...AAAAAAAAIyc/67aBQSRpAmY/s1600/gold+weekly.png

I wonder if such a turn will occur near Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model major turn data of 6/13/11, which he developed way back in the late 80's.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm

That reminds me- tri cera tops
Your photo out your kitchen window and a likely scenic match.
Bend, Oregon-
This is the 3 Sisters (click for a large (reeely beeeg) photo)
Home values there took the biggest hit in the state from what I hear, after being the hottest RE market-



Here's from the best ski resort in the NorthWest- Mt. Bachelor. (My humble opinion, of course!)(clickable)

 

[burrocrat]

ahhh, 3 sisters, one of my favorite views in the world, love to see them, in my rear view mirror.

but that's probably just because my exwife was on the other side of them.

we all got our demons.

 

[crws]

ahhh, 3 sisters, one of my favorite views in the world, love to see them, in my rear view mirror.

but that's probably just because my exwife was on the other side of them.

we all got our demons.

dam, dude- too bad... that SUCKS!

 

[FAB1]

Why does that remind me of three hands flippin me the bird?

When does 2011.45 come along?

 

[david.alan.williams]

Why does that remind me of three hands flippin me the bird?

When does 2011.45 come along?

I think it would be day 164 of the year so that would be Monday 13 June

 

[FAB1]

Did you notice each cycle has 6 points - 666
And wasnt the the Dow at 666 at the bottom of the 2008 crash?

Oooo Scary!

 

[Tsunami]

Yep, I think 6/13/11 is Armstrong's magic date and he talked about it in detail in one of his papers at that link. I've also seen other predictions cropping up for a top in mid-June.

I've driven through Bend Oregon at least 20 times over the years, basically Oregon was just in the way getting from Eastern Washington where I'm from to the Bay Area where I later lived for 22 years...Mt. Shasta is my favorite peak on that drive and I even climbed that 14,100' sucker to the tippy top way back when I was in shape. Bend was much nicer before the California ski bums discovered it and exploded the housing prices and brought the heavy traffic into town.

 

[crws]

Yep, I think 6/13/11 is Armstrong's magic date and he talked about it in detail in one of his papers at that link. I've also seen other predictions cropping up for a top in mid-June.

I've driven through Bend Oregon at least 20 times over the years, basically Oregon was just in the way getting from Eastern Washington where I'm from to the Bay Area where I later lived for 22 years...Mt. Shasta is my favorite peak on that drive and I even climbed that 14,100' sucker to the tippy top way back when I was in shape. Bend was much nicer before the California ski bums discovered it and exploded the housing prices and brought the heavy traffic into town.

they may have left town during the crash, heard high end houses in Redmond went from 400k down to 200....

 

[Tsunami]

Is the blastoff approaching?....

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

 

[crws]

Seen "Inside Job" yet?

 

[KevinD]

Not yet. You?

 

[Tsunami]

This just can't go on much longer can it?....Japan is going to have stop buying our debt now, who's left to support this other than the Fed? They must be talking the end game strategy by now, but I wonder when it will be unleashed.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/debt-jumped-72-billion-same-day-house-vo

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/16/us-usa-treasury-geithner-debt-idUSTRE72F7WQ20110316

 

[crws]

Not yet. You?

Everything you've heard, compiled into one lump of info.
It's good.