tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks are in rally mode again after a day of losses and the action remains a little choppy.

We have the 10-year yield falling again, and the dollar is down slightly after its recent ramp higher.

Gold and bitcoin are trying to bounce back from Thursday's sell off, and oil is trading lower again.

I am playing TommyIV today and will be working on the Last Look Report for him so I have some things I have to take care of this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

There's been a slight change since my last post

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

 

[weatherweenie]

View attachment 70374

Can you say, manipulation?

 

[JTH]

The market pullback cries wolf, at least until a good number of us get slaughtered that one wrong time.

Really need a bubble to pop somewhere...

 

[tsptalk]

It's always a "weird" holiday when the stock market is open but the TSP is not allowing transactions. Maybe I'll go hit a bucket of balls this morning, just so it feels different than a work day.

 

[tsptalk]

Really need a bubble to pop somewhere...

I have been thinking the same thing, but I saw this post this weekend.

Sure, we could pullback to the bottom of that channel, which would be a severe decline, but more than likely we won't see, or need, a 2001-2002 type of bubble bursting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1977140156386660654

 

[JTH]

I have been thinking the same thing, but I saw this post this weekend.

Sure, we could pullback to the bottom of that channel, which would be a severe decline, but more than likely we won't see, or need, a 2001-2002 type of bubble bursting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1977140156386660654

There's been a lot .com bubble comparisons/contrast. I was too young to know the .com movement at the time.

My take, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, not even close, we have legit large cap weight behind AI. The other thing, in this day and age, we gotta a whole lot more eyeballs on it. I have a guess it won't pop, just leak slow, where valuations get digested but don't climb. I have some ideas drafted for an AI-Sector to track the whole ecosystem as a way to look for the slowdown. Once I get these other blog templates sorted, I plan to work that in. Not so much that I have an interest in buying any AI, I just want to watch for the fall.

 

[weatherweenie]

There's been a lot .com bubble comparisons/contrast. I was too young to know the .com movement at the time.

Where's my walker?

 

[JTH]

Where's my walker?

Yea I know, I'm still a newbie in these here parts. In my defense, I graduated HS in 91, majoring in sex drugs and rock & roll. I only remember the 90s as the destruction of 80s hair metal, and many bad fashion choices.

 

[waltj]

I remember those times. I retired the first time in '91, then again in '16. Still do not need a walker. Working on a Locost 7.

 

[nasa1974]

The 90's are pretty much a blur. My daughters were hitting their tweens and teens. Although for some reason I have Mmmbop by Hanson in my playlist.

 

[weatherweenie]

Yea I know, I'm still a newbie in these here parts. In my defense, I graduated HS in 91, majoring in sex drugs and rock & roll. I only remember the 90s as the destruction of 80s hair metal, and many bad fashion choices.

Class of 85 here. That reminds me of a coworker I had. At my retirement he said, I'm envious that you're retiring, but I don't want to be as old as you are. Turns out he was a whopping FOUR years younger than me.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are retesting last week's lows and the 50-day moving averages and so far holding. Are they trying to suck in more people before the next leg down, or is this the opportunity to buy the dip?




The head of the European Central bank was on CNBC is a little while ago trying to stoke fear, imo. She's pushing the need for globalization, more climate change initiatives, and preparing for the next pandemic, so who know what they're brewing up? That's a little concerning, and why the lows in stocks must hold. No wonder they (central banks) are all buying gold.

 

[tsptalk]

Yesterday's positive outside reversal day is doing its job by continuing the rally in stocks today with some positive follow through.

We have yields and the dollar down this morning as the 10-year Treasury is testing that 4.0% area again...



... and that's helping the small caps lead the pack again. The DWCPF (S-fund) has had trouble closing above that red horizontal line and here it is trading above it again with 5+ hours of trading to go.



The Dow Transportation took a turn for the worst last Friday, found support at the prior lows, and has now battled back to its 50-day average. This could be an important test for this economically sensitive market leading index which clung to that average for weeks before breaking down.

The Financial sector is doing well as earnings come in. Gold is flying high again. Oil is up slightly, and bitcoin has been struggling to recover its recent losses.

 

[tsptalk]

The indices have given up their large gains so with three hours to go, will this be the bell being rung at the top, or just a mid afternoon dip that will be bought into the close, as has been the case recently?

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I dunno, its been falling off its peak for the past 2 hours, pretty strong drop of near 1%.
You gotta love when the finance headlines are betrayed by the red stock tickers themselves.

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah, the dip buyers are staying away so far, but I'm thinking it could still be just a gap fill from the morning gap up.