- Reaction score
- 1,791
As I mentioned in another thread, it can take at least 6 to 18 months for an interest rate cut to impact the economy outside of the quick change to loan rates, etc.
They say the stock market is a forward looking indicator. When stocks are going up it is because it is looking down the road and not what is happening now. When the good data starts unfolding into the economy down the road, i.e. growing labor market, etc., we'll probably get a "sell the news" reaction.
The fact that there was already a 97% chance of a rate cut at this month's meeting, any rally today could be vulnerable. It was priced in. But they are now pricing in 2 or 3 cuts more aggressively.
December meeting probabilities:
They say the stock market is a forward looking indicator. When stocks are going up it is because it is looking down the road and not what is happening now. When the good data starts unfolding into the economy down the road, i.e. growing labor market, etc., we'll probably get a "sell the news" reaction.
The fact that there was already a 97% chance of a rate cut at this month's meeting, any rally today could be vulnerable. It was priced in. But they are now pricing in 2 or 3 cuts more aggressively.
December meeting probabilities:
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