tsptalk's Market Talk

[wavecoder]

There is nothing wrong with being greedy - greed makes the world go around. You just have to keep a disciplined handle on the emotions. When I reach the point of catching a +$100K day my greed index will explode into another level.

true but it's a lot more fun to climb a wall of fear

 

[tsptalk]

Since there has been a lot of weakness toward the end of the trading day recently, the close will be important, but for now the small caps are breaking out with another big day.

 

[wavecoder]

the fed is pumping another 4 billion into the market tomorrow as well. it seems to me the market is rather indecisive atm though

edit: damn just checked IWM (small caps), wow!

VIX is still up around 2.5%, it always makes me nervous when SPY and VIX both close positive, the day after is usually a down day when that's the case in my experience

 

[tsptalk]

Since there has been a lot of weakness toward the end of the trading day recently, the close will be important, but for now the small caps are breaking out with another big day.

Well, that was fast...

Still 90 minutes left of trading so let's see where she ends up.

 

[weatherweenie]

The volume has dropped off the last two days, fwiw.

Well, that was fast...

Still 90 minutes left of trading so let's see where she ends up.

 

[tsptalk]

About 75 minutes left in the day and we've lost a lot of the early gains. Are investors selling into the weekend again because of the situation in Ukraine / Russia, or will we see a surge to new highs into the close like yesterday?

As I mentioned in today's TSP Talk Plus commentary, I'm always nervous about the first trading day in a new month following a month like we had in February.

 

[tsptalk]

A little follow up on today commentary regarding the dollar:

Bear flag...

Breaking down...

Interesting that gold is down today despite this weakness in the dollar.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

About 75 minutes left in the day and we've lost a lot of the early gains. Are investors selling into the weekend again because of the situation in Ukraine / Russia, or will we see a surge to new highs into the close like yesterday?

As I mentioned in today's TSP Talk Plus commentary, I'm always nervous about the first trading day in a new month following a month like we had in February.

Nah, it was time for the institutions to take profits... poor mom and pop...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

That's what I was thinking too.

 

[tsptalk]

Two charts are catching my eye today...

Huge move for small caps, but new open gap and possibly hitting the top of resistance.

The dollar filled its open gap with the dead cat bounce after the bear flag / support line break down...

 

[wavecoder]

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

Fear/Greed index is at 77 now putting it in extreme greed territory. Now's the time when I start getting cautious, especially if we start creeping into 85-90 territory.

 

[Boghie]

Market Outlook - Chart of MSCI World Equity Index

To all,

I have no real idea how to read charts. And, my guess is that reading charts on some form of 'world stock index' might be a bit excessive... But, what would the following mean to you:



The above is a 40+ year chart for the MSCI World Equity Index which I guess measures the entire world's equity holdings. Is there a more defined head and shoulders formation in history. What does it mean if a shoulder starts to fall and then explodes to the up.

This is probably silly because we cannot invest in this index and I have no idea how it can actually be measured, but...

 

[wavecoder]

Re: Market Outlook - Chart of MSCI World Equity Index

What does it mean if a shoulder starts to fall and then explodes to the up.

That means head fake and it's bear-hunting season. a lot of the run-up is usually due to shorts counting on a H&S breakdown / pullback and when it doesn't go their way, they cover their positions.

which is why when trading based on TA it's good to wait on confirmation. it's easy to get burned trying to predict the future of what the chart 'might' look like.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Market Outlook - Chart of MSCI World Equity Index

The chart tells me we are in an approaching world recovery - buy equities of large cap companies and hold on.

 

[Sensei]

Because of the tightness of the trading range the last two days, it might not be significant. But the SPX and W4500 both made outside days today. S&P positive by a hair, W4500 negative by a hair. So...?

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like there are still some dip buyers out there, but also rally sellers. That's keeping the indices in a tight range today.

Going into the weekend with the situation in Crimea and the recent carnage on Mondays may produce sellers in late day trading. The only thing that might save it is that I am always wrong when I make a call like this.

I hated the negative reversal day yesterday, but we're seeing some extreme oversold readings on some indicators.

 

[Dutchy]

Russian armor is massing. It's going to be an interesting next few days...



The Tanks Are Coming While Russia, US "Remain At Odds" Over Ukraine | Zero Hedge

 

[OBXTrader]

I did a scalp March 3-4 in my TSP for 1.3% in L2050, so I am G Funding until April. Other than that, I can't pull the trigger in our IRA's to go from cash into anything since January. I keep waiting for the "healthy" pull back. This one looks unhealthy, as much as I wanted to put some money to work, the action today was like a malaise. Interesting the S Fund hung tough.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I did a scalp March 3-4 in my TSP for 1.3% in L2050, so I am G Funding until April. Other than that, I can't pull the trigger in our IRA's to go from cash into anything since January. I keep waiting for the "healthy" pull back. This one looks unhealthy, as much as I wanted to put some money to work, the action today was like a malaise. Interesting the S Fund hung tough.

Sounds like 2013...

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S4 using tapatalk...

 

[OBXTrader]

I did manage a paltry 10% in TSP last year, so if it takes a scalp a month to equal or beat that, so be it. As long as the market is lower on April 1st than when I exited on March 4th, I will love the timing and all the daily interest. If not, I still got the scalp and live to fight another day.

Sounds like 2013...

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S4 using tapatalk...