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What are the chances that we repeat 2011? In 2011, they came to agreement 2 days before the deadline, yet the market still proceeded to drop 13% over the next few days. Is it different this time because we don’t have Europe dragging and QE lifting the market?
 
FireWeatherMet said:
The drop continued afterwards because Standard and Poor's downgraded our credit rating...firs time in history US dropped from AAA rating.
Same will happen this go around the longer we wait, from other credit rating agencies Fitch and Moody's.

- Those who don't heed the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them -
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I can see S&P lowering the rating again even if we raise the debt ceiling... if there are no spending cuts. Isn't that what happened last time? I don't remember exactly. I guess I should look it up.
 
Excuse me FWM, do you know the difference between receiving a paycheck for work you've done based on upfront agreed-upon commitment to being paid, vs asking for charity that is completely up to the good graces of the giver?

One is a contract, the one reneging on paycheck after work is done can be taken to court for civil or perhaps even criminal charges (fraud). The denier of charity only answers to moral authority, willingness and capacity of the giver-his or someone elses, no legal obligation. thought I'd clarify that little matter for you.
 
FireWeatherMet said:
I suggest you read again. I did not say it was anyones fault on this thread.

This market is being driven 100% by politics. I kept it to the facts of debt default and quoted/paraphrased what OTHER experts on financial news networks said would happen. And they were describing strategy, not assigning fault. The did state their opinions on what would happen if we approached or exceeded default. That political scenario is needed to be discussed (w/o getting partisan) because we have to make money decisions here.

Maybe your reply is the one that needs to be moved to a "*" thread....thats where you've been posting for the past 2 months.
Its been 2 months since you last updated your RMI Account Talk. Maybe time to post some charts and "get back in the game"?
Click to expand...

I publicly apologize for assuming if you posted a quote, you agreed with it. If you don't mind, I would like to read the entire article, do you have a link?

BTW, my political beliefs don't actually have a party, as I would vote for a Democrat if he aligned with my beliefs... party is irrelevant since neither party cares about their voters...

PS At least my political beliefs make sense, this casino stock market is apparently beyond my feeble mind to grasp.
 
tsptalk said:
I can see S&P lowering the rating again even if we raise the debt ceiling... if there are no spending cuts. Isn't that what happened last time? I don't remember exactly. I guess I should look it up.
Click to expand...

101513a.gif

Source: S&P | United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative | Americas
 
The latest republican proposal (just announced) is a clean CR and a clean debt ceiling bill. The only "catch" is that all congress and White House administration and staff must be put under Obamacare. This one should be tough for the dems to vote down, but I would also be surprised if the republicans can get it out of the House. We'll see.

Just the facts: To argue the positions, please go here... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/politics/18064-*-cr-debt-ceiling.html or your posts will be moved.
 
Thank you FireWeatherMet. I did not see your post before I posted.

I thought we were only down about 4-5% before the deal on 31 July.

I believe the 2011 deal did include significant future spending cuts. Isn’t that how we got to the sequestration? Maybe the cuts contributed to the weakness in 2011. Spending cuts may be good for balancing budget, but not to a growing economy. If the cuts are removed by this deal, we may see some strength. But then, we may get another downgrade which will cause more weakness.

I am amazed by all the factors that go into the value of stocks.
 
NavyEng said:
I am amazed by all the factors that go into the value of stocks.
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That seems to be media driven. "The market must be going up or down because of...." Fill in the blank.

- the dollar
- oil
- gold
- CR
- debt ceiling
- Japan
- the price of tea in China
- the elections
- jobs reports
- GDP
- etc....
 
Well the NYAD is still showing higher lows just like the SPX - so let there be ruin and plenty of it.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Anyone, other than me, thinking about playing it safe and bailing today?
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If C and S is up just ahead of the TSP noon deadline I'm bailing. Capital preservation now. Roll the dice later. I don't trust these idiots to be able to agree to do anything about anything that will benefit anyone other than themselves and their re-election campaign.
 
I thought about it. But for now, Im staying in and not buying more. I think they will deal after all so my Guess the DOW is now way off from what I want it to be.. I'd be up there with BTs number. I think politically it is best for both parties to move it out to January. However, from yesterday's news, looks very likely that our credit rating will be lowered and it was reported that the last time that happened earlier this year, the DOW took a 600 pt hit on that day. So that is likely coming soon.

If anything I would buy more, wait for the rise, and bail before the credit rating hit and jump back in----provided I am still feeling like buying and selling on news. Really do not like that and told myself I would not do it, but its hard to follow through. Who nows...no telling what the bad wind out of DC holds today. :cool:
jkenjohnson said:
Anyone, other than me, thinking about playing it safe and bailing today?
Click to expand...
 
Re-election worries. We will have an up day and a deal will get done. Tomorrow might be up but I would expect early next week to be the debt ceiling hangover...a little downward action until folks let it sink in the Yellen will have QE until she quits...then it will take off again until the end of the year. prediction is S fund ends the year at 35% ;)
 
There will be some panic buying tomorrow especially if the sequester remain intact - fiscal discipline.
 
I'm going to do a little selling into the close in some individual stocks. Joe six-pack will buy after the deal is made, but the smart money has probably bought already and ready to take some short-term profits. I think we could get a little "sell the news" in the next day or two.
 
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