tsptalk's Market Talk

[MrBowl]

damn look at the last bar on the 5 minute chart for IWM. looks like me after i saw my first playboy mag

Is that how you got your name? ;-)

 

[tsptalk]

damn look at the last bar on the 5 minute chart for IWM. looks like me after i saw my first playboy mag

Looks like it was across the board. Was there some late news that I missed?

 

[Birchtree]

Nike earnings may have leaked early.

 

[MrBowl]

Looks like it was across the board. Was there some late news that I missed?

Not sure what happened today, but I think tomorrow will be opposite. I don't see the two sides in DC coming together before they have to. I think lots of folks will want to avoid being in the market over the weekend so they'll run for the exits during the final hour.

 

[tsptalk]

Think the smart money (OEX put/call ratio) was concerned about being long on Monday without put protection? Just a little.

 

[Birchtree]

High put-call readings day after day. People just hate stocks and the stock market. If you're bullish, let's enjoy hearing the negativity. I still think Big Money is bullish.

 

[Birchtree]

Frankly a 5.61 put-call ratio is an unheard of level of pessimism which almost always leads to tremendous rallies. We are setting up for a big one.

 

[tsptalk]

High put-call readings day after day. People just hate stocks and the stock market. If you're bullish, let's enjoy hearing the negativity. I still think Big Money is bullish.

Frankly a 5.61 put-call ratio is an unheard of level of pessimism which almost always leads to tremendous rallies. We are setting up for a big one.

You're reading that wrong. There's dumb money put / call ratios, and there's smart money put / call ratios (OEX). The one posted was a smart money p/c ratio and a one-day reading (usually not overly important) and gives us a little different perspective from the average options trader.

The dumb money put call ratios are still showing bullishness, but have turned down in the last several days.

The purpose of that was to show those who follow that chart, which I post about once a week or so, what the smart money did on Friday. It will probably reverse on Monday, but thought put / call ratio watchers would want to see that.

Below is the 10-day EMA. The smart money (OEX) was actually getting more bullish while the dumb money (CBOE) turned down recently with the market.

The one day spike down (in prior chart) skewed this 10-day reading for the smart money, but you can see that the smart money and dumb money readings are quite different. The smart money is much more defensive near peaks while the dumb money is very bullish at the top.

Like I said, I post this about once a week in my Plus commentary.

 

[tsptalk]

Gaps getting filled and EMA's holding on SPY and small cap ETF. Also Dow gap filled...

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting. The mid-caps, which were lagging the small caps, are leading the way making new highs this morning.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Is today a deadcat bounce?

 

[tsptalk]

Some indicators might suggest this is a short-term bounce after a two week pullback. New highs are impressive, but I guess it could be a trap.

 

[tsptalk]

The futures dipped on this, but not much. We'll have to see if the dip buyers show up again.

 

[burrocrat]

What a crock of BS! We aren't going to default on anything. We might have to cut some unnecessary spending, but we won't fail to pay our bills.

wanna bet?

the checking account is empty, and the only we can pay up is by advancing our own line of credit. excuse me, sir? there seems to be a problem with your loan application, it appears the income verification section was left blank.

 

[Dutchy]

Seems we've broken through to 50 day ema at 1680 on the S&P..
I hope we can catch a bid soon here. I think next level of support may be 1656 area.
August low was 1632 area. A long way down from here...

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah, 50 EMA broken intra-day. The close is important, but I hate these "h" formations.

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect we are standing on the bottom right now - let the market drop because from here we'll have a 15% up move to SPX 1800.

 

[Bquat]

Yeah, 50 EMA broken intra-day. The close is important, but I hate these "h" formations.

I hate "M" formations also but hoping this isn't one.

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah, 50 EMA broken intra-day. The close is important, but I hate these "h" formations.

The "h" either rallies as a double bottom, or drops precipitously, so it's tough to make a call.

 

[alevin]

ooh, ooh. we just closed that gap from back in mid September.