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That's the premise, but "it may be different this time." Because interest rates remain low, and small caps thrive on low rates, the reason for the switch isn't there this time.

During economic recoveries, interest rates usually start to go up, and even though we are seeing slight increases, they are still very low, and that should keep small caps in the game (or at least competitive with larger stocks).

JMO
 
Small caps have been in outperformance mode now for 15 years - the cycle will at some point revert back to the large caps - place your bets.
 
That's true, and these cycles aren't usually this long, but the Fed and the governement are playing thier manipulation games. Who knows what the consequences will be down the road?

[TABLE="width: 144"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]Date
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]C Fund
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]S Fund
[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]866.16%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1068.41%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+20.21%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+25.39%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2012
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+16.07%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+18.57%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2011
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent"]2.11%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: transparent"]-3.38%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2010
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+15.06%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+29.06%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2009
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+26.68%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+34.85%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]2008
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-36.99%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-38.32%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2007
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+5.54%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+5.49%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2006
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+15.79%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+15.30%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2005
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+4.96%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+10.45%
[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2004
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+10.82%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]+18.03%
[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]2003
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+28.52%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+42.91%
[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]2002
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]-22.05%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]-18.14%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]2001
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]-11.94%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]-9.04%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]2000
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]-9.14%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]-15.77%
[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1999
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+20.95%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+35.49%
[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1998
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+28.44%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+8.63%
[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1997
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+33.17%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+25.68%
[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1996
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+22.85%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+17.18%
[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1995
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+37.41%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+33.48%
[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1994
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]+1.33%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]-2.66%
[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1993
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+10.13%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+14.60%
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1992
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[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+7.70%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+11.90%
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1991
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+30.77%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+43.50%
[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1990
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]-3.15%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]-13.60%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1989
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+31.03%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+23.90%
[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl71, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]1988
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+11.84%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: transparent"]+20.50%
[/TD]
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Uh, oh... On CNBC Warren Buffett just said he believes the market is "fully valued". Of course bull markets can get very overvalued before they turn, but this comment could cause some short-term emotionally driven concerns.
 
tsptalk said:
Uh, oh... On CNBC Warren Buffett just said he believes the market is "fully valued". Of course bull markets can get very overvalued before they turn, but this comment could cause some short-term emotionally driven concerns.
Click to expand...

I don't think his comments are a surprise. I've been hearing from other pros that current and forward earnings do not justify current stock prices in general. I think they are fairly valued now myself, but we have a central bank agenda that wants higher prices regardless. I think that is a much more powerful influence than the comments by WB. Who wants to fight the fed?
 
OK, let's get these gaps filled and get it over with. I don't know what will happen from there, but knowing there are open gaps makes it hard for me to do much analysis since they will likely get filled, so the sooner the better - then we can move on.

092313a.gif
 
[h=1]ANALYST: This Is 'The Classic Setup For A Q4 Melt-Up Rally' In Stocks[/h]Sep. 23, 2013, 10:10 AM

The bottom line: we may get some volatility from the events in Washington through the last part of September and October, but the money flows into stocks should be a decidedly more positive fundamental. It has taken investors – especially retail and conservatively minded investment advisors – a lot time to get comfortable with owning stocks again. As we ramp into the final quarter of 2013, the gains over the year and easy money from the Fed will be the kindling and match to light further equity market gains.
Last week, ahead of last week's shocker FOMC decision that sent stocks soaring (they've since given up most of their gains), investors piled the most money into stocks on record.


http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-set-for-classic-q4-melt-up-rally-2013-9


 
tsptalk said:
OK, let's get these gaps filled and get it over with. I don't know what will happen from there, but knowing there are open gaps makes it hard for me to do much analysis since they will likely get filled, so the sooner the better - then we can move on.
Click to expand...
Agreed, I'd be back in if it wasn't for that lower gap...........
 
Whoa...how long do you think it will take to get that high??? I was thinking to get back in this week...have one .IFT left..was going to wait until Wednesday or Thursday...still looking at Stochastics and both S and C funds are getting down to where it looks like they will hit my parameters in a day or two...MACD still not there. Would be nice if it shot up to 1740!
 
I don't like these end-of-day declines. It's like they are trying to sucker us in before the deadline and then gut us for all we're worth after it's too late. :suspicious:
 
Financials are taking the hit right now, which is why the Nasdaq and small caps are still holding up well. The question is, will the weakness in financials rollover into those indices, or will it be the other way around?
 
I'm told the Financials as reflected in the XLF ETF are driven by bond interest rates. If they continue to decline towards 2% area then the Financials will recover... If not they will continue to decline pulling the Markets with them. However, we are in QE 3.5 so that should bolster the Markets...
 
Another day where we head up in the middle of the day only to tank in the afternoon. This is getting to be a pattern. :notrust:
 
Not too many bad things can happen when the slope of the SPX's 50-day moving average remains positive. The 200 day also has a positive slope.
 
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