tsptalk's Market Talk

[Dutchy]

GOP may have "flexibility" in debt ceiling debate..
This bodes well for the Markets going forward..
Boehner said to be flexible on debt ceiling vote - MarketWatch

 

[tsptalk]

The futures aren't showing any real optimism from traders yet. Dow futures up 6.

 

[Handballer]

I suspect we are standing on the bottom right now - let the market drop because from here we'll have a 15% up move to SPX 1800.

I WISH I HAD READ YOUR POST BEFORE I SUBMITTED MY ITF GOING G FUND 100%. Just a minute - I read a post of yours not long ago when you said the about the same thing. Once in a while you wrong.

 

[tsptalk]

He said the same thing before the 2008 bear market. It's the same old talk that never changes in good markets and bad. I have to give him credit for always being optimistic. It's his strategy and he's making money, but it's not for me. Too risky.

 

[Birchtree]

In defense of optimism and making money I would think that one million, one hundred fifty three thousand, two hundred fourteen views in the Birchtree thread sends a message that some good folks like reading happy stuff.

 

[Dutchy]

The beginnings of a deal may be coming together..
GOP begins search for broad deal on budget - MarketWatch

 

[Weather]

The beginnings of a deal may be coming together..
GOP begins search for broad deal on budget - MarketWatch

Not gonna happen.

From the article "President Barack Obama has said that he won’t negotiate terms for raising the debt ceiling---that Congress must pass it with no conditions".

Until the President leads, we're shutdown and the debt ceiling is busted on October 17.

 

[CrabClaw]

Not gonna happen.

From the article "President Barack Obama has said that he won’t negotiate terms for raising the debt ceiling---that Congress must pass it with no conditions".

Until the President leads, we're shutdown and the debt ceiling is busted on October 17.

I think the posturing will continue through the coming week and then a deal will be struck a couple days before the 17th

 

[Birchtree]

Perhaps yesterday was a sign of terminal panic velocity and now the bullish stampede may resume to higher highs - corporate profits continue to show records.

 

[tsptalk]

Bad day closing at the lows. Many of the major indices are resting on their 50-day EMA again. If this choppiness continues we "should" get an up day tomorrow, but investors are getting less patient the longer this shut down goes on, and the debt ceiling deadline nears.

The "h" formation is in play again. Normally support has trouble holding at the bottom of a "h" but when it does hold, the rebounds can be strong. Flip a coin?

 

[Dutchy]

=FireWeatherMet....;425976]Today looked more like a stampede of Bears....lumbering towards their caves at the close. :notrust:

The stampede of the bears continues this morning..

 

[SkyPilot]

Looking for a significant pullback/consolidation here... let some of the super-heated steam out. Seems that if we have a good correction of 15-20%, we can put in a strong base and move on up again when we get the budget and debt stuff figured out for 6 months or so. Thinking that the QE is on for the foreseeable future, and the economy will continue to angle upwards through spring of 2014.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Don't forget the Christmas rally.

 

[tsptalk]

The small caps are taking the brunt of today's modest pullback, while the lagging Transports up in positive territory. The market does not seem to be in any kind of panic mode despite the imminent deadline quickly approaching. On the contrary, this looks like an orderly pullback after a 3-4 day reversal and spike higher.

 

[gronk007]

I am betting small caps will recover by the end of the day and fair well leading up to the resolution that will occur sometime tomorrow (after 12 EST) of course. At that point it's a coin toss as to whether it will be sell the news or euphoria...I feel like a resolution is priced in so I won't be surprised if it's sell the news.

 

[tsptalk]

That's a good point. A sell the news reaction is very possible. I think I mentioned that in today's commentary. On the other hand, I have heard some big money folks say "this is serious" and I wonder if many are really waiting for a deal before committing? Then we'll sell off. A pop and a drop?

 

[Birchtree]

In a liquidity driven market any ember of positive vibe can ignite an instantaneous explosion of prices to make any rocket proud - stay tuned.

 

[James48843]

And if they don't come up with a deal?


Then we could see a HUGE drop that makes black Monday 1929. pale in comparison.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929



Not a nice thought.

 

[tsptalk]

I have to admit that I would feel quite foolish if the market tanked when the writing was on the wall for all us to see. The market charts are just not indicating this is a possibility. I may lighten up tomorrow (maybe 50%) on the "better safe than sorry" plan.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

That was a long "non-political" message... seems like the * posts have leaked out... I guess there is no Democrat fault here, move on... If we default, it will be by CHOICE and by the EXECUTIVE branch...