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Ouch! It had a nice run but it looks like it will be day 1 below the trendline for AAPL. As I mentioned, a 2nd close below it will take me out. Not a great sign for the Nasdaq unless Monday gives us a snap-back rally.

tsptalk said:
Took the plunge and bought AAPL at $632 today. The stop area would be a close or two, below the trendline.

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Day #15 starting the earnings week slide on queue. Today is also the anniversary of the 1987 crash.

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The problem for TSP'ers selling at this weak juncture on the seasonality chart (assuming we've used our IFT's for the month) is that late October and the 1st few days of November have big positive biases.

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do you think the last days of october having big returns have anything to do with the crash beforehand to set it up though? just curious, everything right now is pointing to sell in my book.
 
sniper said:
do you think the last days of october having big returns have anything to do with the crash beforehand to set it up though? just curious, everything right now is pointing to sell in my book.
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Perhaps with the average return (bars) but not with the % of times positive (line graph).
 
I really hate this IFT limit. I would love the ability to participate in a panic sell off, at least once.
 
AAPL: Good catch Tom. What's the adage? Don't put all your eggs in one basket?

Below, top 10 holdings of QQQ.

Bottom line: Market won't go up unless AAPL is.
 

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Well, since the transports should have gone down with yesterday's 200 point drop, but went UP instead, it had some catching up to do. This market is looking more and more unhealthy. Skeered. :worried:
 
How can we expect the market to respond to: 1) Romney win, or 2) Obama win?

Asking this because I haven't been an investor through an election period yet so I don't know what to expect. Chose to stay my hand until the election is over.

As far as I've heard, Romney winning the election would cause a market pop, while if Obama wins, the market would tank? And judging by how close the poll #'s are, it's kind of a gamble to take either side (short or long positions)?
 
sniper...How can we expect the market to respond to: 1) Romney win, or 2) Obama win?

Asking this because I haven't been an investor through an election period yet so I don't know what to expect. Chose to stay my hand until the election is over.

As far as I've heard, Romney winning the election would cause a market pop, while if Obama wins, the market would tank? And judging by how close the poll #'s are, it's kind of a gamble to take either side (short or long positions)?
Click to expand...

I suggest you check out Marketwatch.com, Seeking Alpha and CNBC.com. You can also google your question, believe it or not. I've seen projections of Market moves, but they are all over the place...
 
they also say 50% chance it could go up or down for either case, which is basically saying it could go up or down, that's not the kind of answer I'm looking for.

I was wondering if anyone here had any experience with election cycles in general who could shed some light on things. And I never follow the advice of CNBC, it's a good way to lose money. seekingalpha has some good writers, but i question the biased opinions of a lot of their writers who have certain positions in stocks / markets they are writing about
 
The Fiscal Cliff, if Romney wins and Repubs don't take the House and Senate, if Obama wins and don't take the House and Senate, either way there will still be a battle and the markets won't like it. I'm hoping for Romney to win and take the House and Senate, RALLY, but the Senate is a maybe and will probably stay under Harry Reid so we are in the same place but with Romney in the White House.
 
I just heard, and we were just talking about this in the politics thread, about another silly statistic. If the Dow was up between Labor Day and Election Day, the incumbent tends to win. If it is down, the challenger tends to win. After today's close the Dow was up about 22-points over that time.

But the Redskins losing at home yesterday means Romney will win so it's another toss up. :D

As far as the direction goes, it really depends how much a winner has been priced in. We could see a 'sell the news' reaction no matter who wins. Or, since the market has been pulling back lately, we could see a 'buy the news' reaction no matter who wins. Great analysis, huh? Who knows? It's tough one.
 
How the last 3 presidential elections played out after the election...

Charting Elections Past


"...just because a winner is declared does not mean the market will automatically rally in a knee-jerk reaction."
 
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