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tsptalk's Market Talk
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FAAM
Active member
Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?
THX for sharing your move & reasoning & after-thoughts. I moved more "IN" on 1st new-month IFT chance on a up-day hoping for longer-term overall continuing +slope and April overall seasonality. My TSP only up about 2% since Jan 1st, so I'm hoping current channel holds up. Good luck to us.
With Thursday's pre-holiday seasonal strength, and the the fact that the S&P is testing (and so far holding) the lower end of the rising trading channel, I rolled the dice this morning and bought (IFT). Probably the kiss of death for this rally.
THX for sharing your move & reasoning & after-thoughts. I moved more "IN" on 1st new-month IFT chance on a up-day hoping for longer-term overall continuing +slope and April overall seasonality. My TSP only up about 2% since Jan 1st, so I'm hoping current channel holds up. Good luck to us.
This emotional, Monday morning gap down is at a crucial point. If the selling continues and we see a new low in April (solid red line), we can draw in a new downtrend line (red dashed line).
If this morning's lows hold, the downtrend line would not be drawn yet, and we could have a double bottom situation. The afternoon trading will be key.
As we talked about in today's commentary the Monday after option expiration week in April is historically weak, but the rest of the week tends to do better.
If this morning's lows hold, the downtrend line would not be drawn yet, and we could have a double bottom situation. The afternoon trading will be key.
As we talked about in today's commentary the Monday after option expiration week in April is historically weak, but the rest of the week tends to do better.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?
Interesting roll-over in the market today... topping tail anyone, served up fresh
Interesting roll-over in the market today... topping tail anyone, served up fresh
Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?
A nice little bounce today, one many of us thought was overdue. The question is, is this a short-term pop that needs to be sold or could we get at least a 50% retracement of the decline, which would take the S&P up to about 1360?
A nice little bounce today, one many of us thought was overdue. The question is, is this a short-term pop that needs to be sold or could we get at least a 50% retracement of the decline, which would take the S&P up to about 1360?
Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?
A sneak peak. I will be posting this chart in tomorrow's commentary...
Oscar likes to talk about holiday reversals. That is, in general the week before the holiday tends to fade the larger trend leading into it, but that ends after the holiday. In this case, this is a holiday rally that may reverse back down next week. But that's not what the chart above is saying, so...
A sneak peak. I will be posting this chart in tomorrow's commentary...
Oscar likes to talk about holiday reversals. That is, in general the week before the holiday tends to fade the larger trend leading into it, but that ends after the holiday. In this case, this is a holiday rally that may reverse back down next week. But that's not what the chart above is saying, so...
Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?
So far this inverted H&S breakout is pulling back in the classic manner... testing the neckline. That would normally hold or we'll get a test of the middle of the head - although a test of the head usually happens before the breakout, so...
OR...
So far this inverted H&S breakout is pulling back in the classic manner... testing the neckline. That would normally hold or we'll get a test of the middle of the head - although a test of the head usually happens before the breakout, so...
OR...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The new apex, or triangle formation, broke to the upside, but we have seen many times over the years where an apex breaks in one direction, only to fail and head back and break in the other.
I wonder if we are witnessing a fake-out and breakdown formation of the SPX, as shown and discussed by Tom Crowley in yesterday's daily commentary?
Don't forget about the post-holiday reversal phenomenon. Although that is usually for 3-day holiday weekends.The new apex, or triangle formation, broke to the upside, but we have seen many times over the years where an apex breaks in one direction, only to fail and head back and break in the other.
I wonder if we are witnessing a fake-out and breakdown formation of the SPX, as shown and discussed by Tom Crowley in yesterday's daily commentary?
Seasonality-wise - post 4th of July isn't quite as strong as pre-4th historically, but it is still positive.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Good that you posted this but now it throws a monkey wrench into my plans?
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