tsptalk's Market Talk

It's OK to stand in front of the train - but dangerous to stand in front of the ECB. We could have a serious meltup on our hands lasting into April. "Success in investing comes from being able to see not what is in front of you but what is lurking just around the corner." As amoeba would tell you if it's obvious, it's obviously wrong.
 
Important test #2 of the 50-day EMA for the Tranports, which are lagging again today...

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I was on my way out this morning and thought I heard one of the market gurus mention that the Quantitative Easing purchasing was to start this Weds. Anyone heard if this is accurate or not? If accurate may give equities a boost if its not already priced in.
 
I sure hope we get a test of the 50-day EMA. Another 20 S&P points to go. That will help this market reload for another move higher.
 
Re: imported post

You know, I am sitting here and watching the money go to the big shares. DOW is up 0.35% right now- while at the same time the broader market is down slightly, and the S fund is down .35%.

Tells me there is a flocking to quality, and distrust of the broader shares.


Do you think that's another signal that our three-month long stretch upward is at an end? I think so - but that's just me.

What does this divergence say to you?
 
Re: imported post

If the day continues like this, probably the lightest volume day of the year as well. Not sure what I'm smelling, but that, coupled with the divergence you're seeing, might be spelling trouble... or not. :)
 
Re: imported post

It says rotation is finally here. The market's biggest stocks have been laggards for most of the past 12 years. It might be time to give them a fresh look.
 
Re: Bounce Coming?

So I'm gathering the seasonal research indicates a few rough days but an overall upward bounce?

Also, since the S seems to be a bit more volatle with steeper inclines up and down and longer rises and falls, at least over the past few months, has anyone considered using the C as an indicator for the S? In other words it seems when their is a big gap between the two in a climb (like Friday) there is a correction in the S. If the S drops significantly faster (meaning the gap narrows but C is not falling as fast) I would expect the drop to be more temporary? If the both go steep duck?

Or am I just imagining that relationship?

Same seems to occur at the bottom.. when they are both falling the wider the gap the more likely for a Bull charge?
 
Re: Bounce Coming?

So I'm gathering the seasonal research indicates a few rough days but an overall upward bounce?
March's seasonality seems to indicate a rally this week, then some less bullish action through the end of the month.

Monday was day #8...

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Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?

I'm in 100% S - and wow - over 2% in one day! We need more days like this!!!
 
Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?

The close on the Dow Transports looks to be pretty important.

It fell sharply this morning and so far successfully tested the 50-day EMA. Now it's back above the 20-day EMA. It is still down 1.7% on the day.

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Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?

Through day #18 (3/26)...

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Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?

With Thursday's pre-holiday seasonal strength, and the the fact that the S&P is testing (and so far holding) the lower end of the rising trading channel, I rolled the dice this morning and bought (IFT). Probably the kiss of death for this rally. :sick:

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Re: TSP strategy for mid 40's with 20 years till retirement. Anyone? Bueller?

With Thursday's pre-holiday seasonal strength, and the the fact that the S&P is testing (and so far holding) the lower end of the rising trading channel, I rolled the dice this morning and bought (IFT). Probably the kiss of death for this rally. :sick:

Could be a great move, Tom. *in my best Canadian accent* We'll soon find out, eh?

Which fund did you buy???
 
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