tsptalk's Market Talk

As the VIX (20.65) heads into the teens you'll start hearing noise about a potential top - don't worry about that until it's into the 15 level.
 
Taking out SPX 1265 and Dow 12,200 with force will be a short covering signal - then the Santa rally will be in sleigh gear.
 
The dollar appear to be breaking down from its recent uptrend, which is a good confirmation of the rally in the stock market, but we'll have to see where it closes.

010312a.gif
 
Remember this chart that I posted in one of last week's commentaries? Relentless. If we're in a similar situation, the dips will be short and shallow and can hardly be called pullbacks.

011112f.gif



Intel reports tonight so we'll have to see if the market can stop the strong trend of losses for 2 weeks to 2 months after they report.

So far Sentiment looks less bullish than we might expect considering the action. The bullish percentage was higher last week.
 
Remember this chart that I posted in one of last week's commentaries? Relentless. If we're in a similar situation, the dips will be short and shallow and can hardly be called pullbacks.

011112f.gif



Intel reports tonight so we'll have to see if the market can stop the strong trend of losses for 2 weeks to 2 months after they report.

So far Sentiment looks less bullish than we might expect considering the action. The bullish percentage was higher last week.

Yes, the Trend is your Friend.

Your table showing market results after INTC reports is a bit disturbing tho. Watching the markets closely for any indication of weakness....
 
Tom,

I was wondering if there were any gaps on any of the indices that you're looking at as possible targets to be filled in the next pullback. Looks to me like the NASDAQ has a small one around the 20 day SMA (2725'ish) and a larger one just below the 50 SMA (2625).

big.chart
 
That looks right. Just looking at your chart, is that one near 2685 from the 9th?

And of course there's the big one that may have to wait until the summer / fall to fill. :sick:
 
The dollar appear to be breaking down from its recent uptrend, which is a good confirmation of the rally in the stock market, but we'll have to see where it closes.
Hello old friends - still kicking around (in a manner of speaking). Anyway, a new chart of the USD today may suggest a start to strengthening. MACD and SlowSTO reinforce possibility, IMO.
USDollar020712.jpg

But I really wanted to mention a quote at "the bell" today - by Maria Bartaromo:
...wondering why Volatility continues to go down in a Market with NO Volume?"
 
I thought the same thing on the VIX. We could see a spike up in the VIX tomorrow or Thursday with the bond auction on us. Nothing dramatic though unless there is some earth shattering news.
 
We did get a new intraday high today (1356) - above the last 6 highs. But resistance won in the end, propbably thanks to AAPL's pullback.
 
If this is a real bull market, and I believe it is, the opportunity to get in at cheaper pricing may not present itself for many months. We are in for some surprising action going forward that will push the market higher. We could be at the early stages of the 2009 market type bull move and I'm too afraid to get out and save myself - truth be told I'm just greedy. I'm deep in the bull manure, toasty warm and staying right where I'm comfortable - long and strong.
 
I'm looking at all the various signs that tell me we are ready for a short pause. I'm thinking we may get "down another 2-2.5%" before we settle and then start climbing again. I may be wrong, but I really think we are at a point in the relentless market climb since December that we'll take a breath or two here for a while and just drift down a smidgen, and then sidewise for a week or two. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
 
I'm looking at all the various signs that tell me we are ready for a short pause. I'm thinking we may get "down another 2-2.5%" before we settle and then start climbing again. I may be wrong, but I really think we are at a point in the relentless market climb since December that we'll take a breath or two here for a while and just drift down a smidgen, and then sidewise for a week or two. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Hope you're right. I've been looking' for a chance to get back in. The question is: how many folks are looking to lock in profits. Could be a bigger drop.
 
We have plenty of day left to take out 1360 - just because the market can.

The key is to close above the 1356 high, but that still maintains the flat top scenerio. If we can close around 1360 or better it breaks that flat top and draws a new line of support. If that happens then tomorrow may play out differently and if good news about Greece opens next week Birch may just have that rocket ride he has been talking about.
 
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