tsptalk's Market Talk

[clester]

Poor close. 10-year is trading at 2.01%, VIX 30.6.

Not good and Looks like a reversal off the 50 dma in s and p. Tomorrow could be the tell.

 

[tsptalk]

10-year yield = 2.05%

VIX = 28.1

S&P currently above 20, 50, and 200 day EMA's. (still below 200-day SMA)

 

[tsptalk]

I posted this in today's blog comments, but in case you don't normally go there...

Will we finally see a bull flag breakout?

The Dow is not a leading index, but look at it fly above the moving averages...

 

[FishSqueezer]

A humorous report from CNBC today.

Hedge funds dump stocks, hoping for rebound in 2012

...snip...
"Hedge funds have slashed their exposure to stocks-both on a long and short basis-to the lowest level since 2008, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of SEC disclosures and NYSE and Nasdaq data. Their net long exposure to stocks plummeted by more than a third, the biggest drop since 2009, stated the report by analyst Mary Ann Bartels entitled "Hold 'em and Fold 'em."
Ironically, the move by the Wall Street pros may not have come at the best time. A coordinated move by central banks on Wednesday to ease Europe's debt crisis sent global markets soaring and sparked hopes for a year-end rally."
...snip...

Maybe this explains what looks like light volume in today's rally??

 

[tsptalk]

A humorous report from CNBC today.

Hedge funds dump stocks, hoping for rebound in 2012

So much for the smart money.

 

[Happy_Trails]

So much for the smart money.

The CBs action seemed to catch many flat footed today. What a psychotic market.

 

[tsptalk]

The early rally is losing steam as the jobs report gets disected. Plus there are profits to be taken after the 8% rally (including this morning's gains). But if this bull flag breakout is real, we should have some pretty clear support here on the flag's old resistance and the 200-day EMA. If it holds, great! If not, it may be time to take profits.

 

[tsptalk]

I don't use seasonality as a primary indicator, and after the Thanksgiving seasonality flip / flop, I am reluctant to give this much credit, but December has a distinct weak period historically after trading day #4. Today is trading day #2. Then the "santa rally" seems to start near day 12 to 15.

 

[nasa1974]

The early rally is losing steam as the jobs report gets disected. Plus there are profits to be taken after the 8% rally (including this morning's gains). But if this bull flag breakout is real, we should have some pretty clear support here on the flag's old resistance and the 200-day EMA. If it holds, great! If not, it may be time to take profits.

If we have to take profits it is too late. Monday will be crashing down around our ears before we can do anything about it.

 

[tsptalk]

If we have to take profits it is too late. Monday will be crashing down around our ears before we can do anything about it.

I just meant that was why we were seeing some bleeding of the early gains. Us TSP'ers get to move like we're running in peanut butter.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I just meant that was why we were seeing some bleeding of the early gains. Us TSP'ers get to move like we're running in peanut butter.

Good analogy - Running in peanut butter.

 

[WorkFE]

If you have to be stuck in something, peanut butter is not a bad choice.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm tempted to buy some TNA or SSO here in case this is the bottom of the consolidation...

 

[tsptalk]

I'm tempted to buy some TNA or SSO here in case this is the bottom of the consolidation...

I done gone and did it. Bought a little TNA @43.82. Still have about 2/3 to 3/4 cash position in the IRA at the moment.

 

[tsptalk]

Sheesh!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Happens to me all the time...

 

[tsptalk]

EMA's have held and we're getting a nice bounce off of them. The 10-year bond yield is back over 2%. Although we saw similar action in October, and it worked out - I'm just not crazy about the rounded top look, so I'd like to see a move above yesterday's high today or tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

I can't see SPX 1300 but I can certainly smell it - so I know it's close at hand.

 

[tsptalk]

What does 1300 smell like? Don't answer.

 

[tsptalk]

I done gone and did it. Bought a little TNA @43.82. Still have about 2/3 to 3/4 cash position in the IRA at the moment.

If I can get $46 out of this trade today, I'm going to take it. That would be a 5% gain in a day in a volatile consolidating market. Who knows what the weekend will bring? Until the consolidations breaks out, I want to buy dips and sell rallies.

In the TSP, I wish I had bought yesterday's sell-off - had I known we'd close down 200-points I probably would have. But I think we should get another opportunity in this choppy market.