tsptalk's Market Talk

[Bquat]

It seems like the market is always up 200 points on the day we take the survey.

Take the survey more often then.

 

[tsptalk]

I posted this in 11/17 blog commentary, but for any of you that don't normally go into the blog area:

Key levels are being tested. Is this the "fake-out" or the real breakdown? 50-day EMA needs to hold.

 

[tsptalk]

We're running out of room and may need a rebound pretty quickly.

I see bonds have reversed and this may be a good sign for stocks if it holds...

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

We're running out of room and may need a rebound pretty quickly.

I see bonds have reversed and this may be a good sign for stocks if it holds...

I'm not real good at picking out patterns in the charts. Is that a bear flag I'm seeing in the S&P chart?

 

[tsptalk]

There were a couple of very short term bear flags that broke down within the flag portion of the bull flag I outlined in red. Is that the one you mean - the bull flag?

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

There were a couple of very short term bear flags that broke down within the flag portion of the bull flag I outlined in red. Is that the one you mean - the bull flag?

Yeah, like I said I'm not well versed on the subject.:embarrest:

 

[tsptalk]

Upside open gap is a possible upside target if this is just a relief rally, and gap opened this morning could be revisted on a test of the low in the coming days.

 

[tsptalk]

Good sign. The leader, Dow Transportation Index, is back above the 50 and 20-day EMAs. The 200-day is the next test.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Good sign. The leader, Dow Transportation Index, is back above the 50 and 20-day EMAs. The 200-day is the next test.

Being above and closing above are two very different things... then there is confirmation...

 

[tsptalk]

Agree, but we have to talk about something during the day.

I was going to mentioned that the 10-year yield is holding above 2% (2.02), but I better wait until the close.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Agree, but we have to talk about something during the day.

I was going to mentioned that the 10-year yield is holding above 2% (2.02), but I better wait until the close.

How about the fact that the $COMPQ is lagging almost 3/4%... foreshadowing?

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps too. I am hoping this is just because of the huge gains yesterday. Transports are still up 1% but fell below the 20 EMA. :blink:

Still, no collapse (yet) so as long as bond yields stay above 2% I think we'll close higher. But who knows?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Small caps too. I am hoping this is just because of the huge gains yesterday. Transports are still up 1% but fell below the 20 EMA. :blink:

Still, no collapse (yet) so as long as bond yields stay above 2% I think we'll close higher. But who knows?

Wouldn't the VIX closing below 30 be significant too? and possibly foretell more upside?

 

[clester]

Small caps too. I am hoping this is just because of the huge gains yesterday. Transports are still up 1% but fell below the 20 EMA. :blink:

Still, no collapse (yet) so as long as bond yields stay above 2% I think we'll close higher. But who knows?

Often, there is a 2 day rally in a downtrend before starting back down. We are also around 1200 and the 50 dma on s and p. 2 hurdles to top. But if we do get above those levels maybe Santa will come!

 

[tsptalk]

Still, no collapse (yet) so as long as bond yields stay above 2% I think we'll close higher. But who knows?

Yields are still up for the day, but back down to 1.99%.

 

[tsptalk]

Often, there is a 2 day rally in a downtrend before starting back down. We are also around 1200 and the 50 dma on s and p. 2 hurdles to top. But if we do get above those levels maybe Santa will come!

Today's action is nothing to get too excited about, but one indicator I really like is that the smart money of the OEX put/call ratios are clearly looking for more upside here.

A slowly sinking VIX would be nice, but it seems each time it gets into 25-28 area, the rallies run out of steam. It would certainly have to get below 30, as RMI suggests, if the rally has any legs.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Today's action is nothing to get too excited about, but one indicator I really like is that the smart money of the OEX put/call ratios are clearly looking for more upside here.

A slowly sinking VIX would be nice, but it seems each time it gets into 25-28 area, the rallies run out of steam. It would certainly have to get below 30, as RMI suggests, if the rally has any legs.

Well, considering the action this afternoon (VIX up, USD up) it seems we need something else, or this rally is... done

 

[tsptalk]

40 minutes to go. Stocks (some indices) are near their intraday highs, the 10-year is back at 2%, and the VIX is at 30.6.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

40 minutes to go. Stocks (some indices) are near their intraday highs, the 10-year is back at 2%, and the VIX is at 30.6.

Hmmm, that was so 30 minutes ago...

 

[tsptalk]

Poor close. 10-year is trading at 2.01%, VIX 30.6.