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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
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Yields and the dollar popping higher this morning on something - perhaps Friday's jobs report. It was mixed with slightly fewer jobs added but the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth. I assume the move up in the unemployment rate has people believing the Fed could be a little more hawkish on rates.
Still a few weeks away from the next FOMC and lots more data to come before then.
Bank stocks and the small caps (because of the regional banks) are up on the higher yields.
Still a few weeks away from the next FOMC and lots more data to come before then.
Bank stocks and the small caps (because of the regional banks) are up on the higher yields.
Small caps (S-fund) aren't ready to break down from that bear flag yet... and as I have been talking about lately, bear flags uncharacteristically have not been breaking down in general over the last year, but they do look ominous while developing.
Yields are up helping the bank stocks again, which helps the regional banks that litter the S-fund.
The dollar gapped down this morning to fill in yesterday's upside gap.
Yields are up helping the bank stocks again, which helps the regional banks that litter the S-fund.
The dollar gapped down this morning to fill in yesterday's upside gap.
Ok so it's going to go up at least another 3% from here. And then there's that inverted head and shoulders on the C fund that takes us to the August highs. Tomorrow's CPI will be the spark to push it up further. Now if only I could be brave enough to go in with 100%. I blew it in mid March (13th) on that banking contagion fear and now am so far behind. They know how to play us for sure.
If this is a right shoulder forming in a head and shoulders pattern, it's getting pretty high, but the resistance seems to be there. The PMO indicator shows waning momentum. Are the bears ready to make a move again?
Disclaimer. I thought the same thing three weeks ago.
:embarrest:
Disclaimer. I thought the same thing three weeks ago.
:embarrest:
I wouldn't say these charts look good, but there is some improvement. Financial (XLF) and regional banks (KRE) have been forming bearish flags / wedges, but after some large banks reported earnings this morning, we see a break above some resistance, although the major moving averages are still in the way.
Boeing is weighing on the Dow...
Boeing is weighing on the Dow...
What is happening here? Upside breakouts in the 10-year and the dollar? Inflation is sticky, says Mohamed El-Erian
The target Fed Funds Rate probability is now decisively in the +0.50% for the May meeting.
The target Fed Funds Rate probability is now decisively in the +0.50% for the May meeting.
Some backing and filling in the 10-year yield and the dollar has stocks choppy and mixed this morning.
An earnings miss by Goldman Sachs saw there stock breaking down initially (from the bear flag) but it has battled back to nearly fill the gap. Where this ends up could dictate the rest of the day.
An earnings miss by Goldman Sachs saw there stock breaking down initially (from the bear flag) but it has battled back to nearly fill the gap. Where this ends up could dictate the rest of the day.
Yields are pulling back this morning and the 10-year is backing off from that prior March high.
The Transports are breaking out above a flat top and some descending resistance. Looks interesting considering the economic headwinds.
Small caps are still below resistance but this has been following the Transports pretty closely so it will be interesting to see if this Russell 2K index ETF can get above about 179.
The Transports are breaking out above a flat top and some descending resistance. Looks interesting considering the economic headwinds.
Small caps are still below resistance but this has been following the Transports pretty closely so it will be interesting to see if this Russell 2K index ETF can get above about 179.
A slow start to the new week in front of this week's big tech earnings kick off. Google and Microsoft will start with reports Tuesday after the bell.
This week's earnings and next week's FOMC meeting when the Fed raises rates again and provides an update to their monetary policy, could very well trigger the next move out of the recent consolidation.
The dollar and the 10-year yield are down to start the day, helping the EFA (I-fund) to push to a new high.
This week's earnings and next week's FOMC meeting when the Fed raises rates again and provides an update to their monetary policy, could very well trigger the next move out of the recent consolidation.
The dollar and the 10-year yield are down to start the day, helping the EFA (I-fund) to push to a new high.
Sorry no update earlier. Busy morning.
This was the one thing that I was worried about in this market - those bear flags on the small caps and regional banks. Will this be another fake out like we saw in March? Can big tech earnings reverse this tomorrow, or is this the start of a move to test the March lows?
This was the one thing that I was worried about in this market - those bear flags on the small caps and regional banks. Will this be another fake out like we saw in March? Can big tech earnings reverse this tomorrow, or is this the start of a move to test the March lows?
First Republic Bank down another 22% this morning, after Tuesday's crash.
Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/fir...help-now-or-pay-more-later-when-it-fails.html
Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/fir...help-now-or-pay-more-later-when-it-fails.html
Half way through S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, and they have been impressive so far. However the number 1 and 3 weighted stocks have not reported yet. Why they would be any different than the previous reports, I don't know, but they will be very influential, whatever they are.
Amazon reports after the bell today, and Apple reports next week.
Amazon reports after the bell today, and Apple reports next week.
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