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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
The TSP won't be posting share prices today so today's action will be incorporated into Tuesday's market action when they post a price on Tuesday.
The bond market is closed today but the futures are trading showing yields up so the BND bond ETF is down, and that's putting pressure on stocks so far today.
The bond market is closed today but the futures are trading showing yields up so the BND bond ETF is down, and that's putting pressure on stocks so far today.
Very light trading day so far with the bond market closed and the holiday. Less than 1.2 1.1 billion shares traded in the S&P 500 with 3 hours to go. The final 15 minutes usually is the busiest of the day but it may be hard pressed to see 3 billion shares.
Volume 1,171,160,000
Avg. Volume 3,841,854,375
Translation, the index could get pushed around easily by a few big traders.
Volume 1,171,160,000
Avg. Volume 3,841,854,375
Translation, the index could get pushed around easily by a few big traders.
They are taking care of business today... The "stealth" gap has been filled just below 3600.
One gap filled on the S&P 500, and another open one below 3600. Also, a new gap was opened on today's weak open on the upside.
New lows for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq this morning as investors position themselves for tomorrow's PPI and Thursday's CPI. It is still reeling from Friday's better than expected jobs report and tick lower in unemployment. I don't like the formation so I believe the bear market has another leg down to go - eventually, but other than a few small relief rallies, stocks haven't had a decent multi week bear market rally since the August peak so things may be getting overdone in the short term.
That said, the CPI / PPI combo may trigger a lot of volatility, with the direction dependent on the outcome of those reports, and more downside is obviously possible.
Some of the worst market action in the 2008-2009 bear market came in early October of 2008, but did you know that there was a 20% rally from mid-Oct to early November in 2008?
The Yield on the 10-year is up testing 4% an whether that makes new highs or not may determine whether we get a strong relief rally.
That said, the CPI / PPI combo may trigger a lot of volatility, with the direction dependent on the outcome of those reports, and more downside is obviously possible.
Some of the worst market action in the 2008-2009 bear market came in early October of 2008, but did you know that there was a 20% rally from mid-Oct to early November in 2008?
The Yield on the 10-year is up testing 4% an whether that makes new highs or not may determine whether we get a strong relief rally.
The PPI came in a little hotter than expected although sans food and energy, it was basically inline. But food and energy are some of the biggest problems with prices.
Anyway, the yield on the 10-year is flat on the news, so that's good news for stocks, but it's tomorrow's CPI report that will get more attention. It will likely cause either a breakout, or a double top pullback on the yield chart.
Anyway, the yield on the 10-year is flat on the news, so that's good news for stocks, but it's tomorrow's CPI report that will get more attention. It will likely cause either a breakout, or a double top pullback on the yield chart.
After the CPI the yield on the 10-year shot right above 4%, but since has settled back below it.
Stocks are off their lows but there's a long way to go today an the bears will certainly not go away easily. The question is , where does that 10-year yield close today?
The VIX is actually down right now, mostly because of some buying off the opening lows. That could change when the bear make their next move - assuming the bulls let them.
Stocks are off their lows but there's a long way to go today an the bears will certainly not go away easily. The question is , where does that 10-year yield close today?
The VIX is actually down right now, mostly because of some buying off the opening lows. That could change when the bear make their next move - assuming the bulls let them.
Gapping the gap. The S&P 500 filled the early October open gap by gapping above it this morning. It's doing a little backing and filling already as it is off the highs, but that was some market opening.
Yields and the dollar are down modestly this morning helping the bullish case for stocks.
Yields and the dollar are down modestly this morning helping the bullish case for stocks.
Looks like some backing and filling this morning in the indices. Yields are popping again as the 10-year is now up to 4.1% and the dollar is also rebounding from its recent pullback.
That's not a good theme and it jeopardizes the relief rally.
It's early and we'll have to see what the bulls have got.
I am working on some technical issues on the site today related to subscription payments. That's always fun :684: and time consuming, so I may not be as active here in the forum - unless I can find the issue quickly.
That's not a good theme and it jeopardizes the relief rally.
It's early and we'll have to see what the bulls have got.
I am working on some technical issues on the site today related to subscription payments. That's always fun :684: and time consuming, so I may not be as active here in the forum - unless I can find the issue quickly.
JTH
Well-known member
Yea the USD is draining the world, something needs to happen soon, I don't know how much longer the world markets can sustain this. First it was the UK banks, now there's whispers the Swiss banks have issues. I need to stop reading the news...
This morning's modest rally is impressive, not because of the size of it, but because it is doing it with the 10-year yield reaching to another new high this morning. The dollar is down so maybe that matters more to investors right now, although the dollar's strength tends to feel off of the bond yields so there's a little divergence today.
There's a nice little rally going on in HYG, the Corporate High Yield Bonds, and the stock market always appreciates a boost in the credit market.
Small caps are leading the way with a nice 1% gain this morning, after yesterday's tough loss.
There's a nice little rally going on in HYG, the Corporate High Yield Bonds, and the stock market always appreciates a boost in the credit market.
Small caps are leading the way with a nice 1% gain this morning, after yesterday's tough loss.
The 10-year moved above 4.2%, and the dollar relented and moved up as well. Too much for the stock market. 90 minutes left for the bulls to patch up the relief rally.
The market seems to be clamoring for any good news in a sea of pessimism. Yields and the dollar popped higher to start the day, but they both drifted lower and are well off the highs after the 10-year yield hit some resistance. That may be what triggered that little spike higher in stocks. But can it hold with the "sell the rallies" mentality still pervasive?
A little bit of morning shake out volatility but right now the Dow and S&P 500 are green, and Nasdaq is very flippy to start the day as it and the small caps are lagging a bit.
The yield on the 10-year T-note is up again and the dollar is pretty flat. If that yield rolls over we could see a strong close as it feels like there is some buying interest, but it's tentative with yields higher.
Big earnings reports come out this week, both in volume and in major companies. If you're looking to get out of stocks (or in) Microsoft and Google report tomorrow after the bell so it won;t impact the TSP funds until Wednesday.
The Fed is in blackout mode until their FOMC meeting next week so we won't hear from any of them in the interim.
Just food for thought.
The yield on the 10-year T-note is up again and the dollar is pretty flat. If that yield rolls over we could see a strong close as it feels like there is some buying interest, but it's tentative with yields higher.
Big earnings reports come out this week, both in volume and in major companies. If you're looking to get out of stocks (or in) Microsoft and Google report tomorrow after the bell so it won;t impact the TSP funds until Wednesday.
The Fed is in blackout mode until their FOMC meeting next week so we won't hear from any of them in the interim.
Just food for thought.
Very impressive early action in stocks supported by favorable moves in yields and the dollar.
There are still some bear flag formations that I am worried about, particularly the Transports.
The S&P is back above its 50-day EMA and the longer term descending resistance line.
There are still some bear flag formations that I am worried about, particularly the Transports.
The S&P is back above its 50-day EMA and the longer term descending resistance line.
The first thing I notice this morning is that yields and the dollar are down so there should be some wind at the backs of the stock market.
The other thing that got my attention is that the market IS responding positively if we look past MSFT and GOOG.
The equal weighted S&P 500 Index ETF is UP right after the opening bell while the S&P 500 is down because of how heavily the big tech stocks are weighted in the indices. Small caps are up as well.
So while that doesn't help the C-fund today, it does tell us little about the strength of this relief rally.
The other thing that got my attention is that the market IS responding positively if we look past MSFT and GOOG.
The equal weighted S&P 500 Index ETF is UP right after the opening bell while the S&P 500 is down because of how heavily the big tech stocks are weighted in the indices. Small caps are up as well.
So while that doesn't help the C-fund today, it does tell us little about the strength of this relief rally.
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