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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
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The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to a new high after a jobless claim report that was stronger than expected, suggesting the jobs market is not calming down as the Fed had been hoping.
That report also turned the S&P 500 futures around from a modest gain to losses, and now we see the indices in the red to start the day.
Good news is bad news right now for the stock market as it wants to see an economic slow down to get the Fed to back off interest rates.
Oil is up $1 a barrel, gold and silver are also moving higher as the dollar moves down slightly with other foreign central banks following the Fed and raising interest rates last night.
That report also turned the S&P 500 futures around from a modest gain to losses, and now we see the indices in the red to start the day.
Good news is bad news right now for the stock market as it wants to see an economic slow down to get the Fed to back off interest rates.
Oil is up $1 a barrel, gold and silver are also moving higher as the dollar moves down slightly with other foreign central banks following the Fed and raising interest rates last night.
Just a reminder that I am on vacation this week. I will check in every day but the commentaries will be brief because of some personal plans, and working on my laptop to me is like running in peanut butter compared to my PC. If something major happens I'll try to address that the best I can. My schedule will be completely off being in a different time zone so I'll apologize in advance, and appreciate your patience if I respond late to emails, or post reports and update the AutoTracker later than usual. Premium alerts will go out as needed.
Nice rally to start the day, and it was over due and right on time on Turnaround Tuesday. But I see yields are up again, so the rally may have a difficult time holding very long.
Yields are finally falling today so the stock market has a reason to rebound. This is almost certainly a dead cat bounce but it could last a few days, especially when new money starts coming in when the new month starts on Monday. Still, risk is high as investors will hold on only long enough not to be the last one out when the bounce is over and they start selling the rally again.
The S&P 500 is dancing around the June lows with lot of oversold room above, but a precipitous drop below if those lows give out.
The rally yesterday did satisfy an open gap on the DWCPF S-fund chart before flipping back over, and both are desperately trying to hold tat those recent lows as well.
The rally yesterday did satisfy an open gap on the DWCPF S-fund chart before flipping back over, and both are desperately trying to hold tat those recent lows as well.
With what appears to be H&S patterns on some of these charts, this latest leg down and last few days of rangebound action, do you think it's trying to form a bear flag down from the H&S? If so, maybe we have a few more days of this sideway action before the next bigger drop. IDK, maybe I'm seeing it wrong. Just some stuff I'm looking at this morning with this selloff. I know we are at a double bottom but those don't always bounce.
Sorry I know your out of town.
Sorry I know your out of town.
Yeah, not the greatest looking pattern but a meaningful right shoulder could still form out of an oversold market as long as the neckline holds. Otherwise, like you said, it could be a bear flag which would more likely go straight down. In bear markets, you can't always count on oversold rallies. Buying in a bear market is always a big risk, but if you can catch it right, the reward can be very nice, if we're nimble.
Yes I stepped in and got the bounce yesterday but did not sell back out so I'm waiting and watching. Things overall just do not look good. How far down we can go is yet to be seen. Really isn't any potential good news I can see coming, unless maybe earnings aren't as bad as some think, but I do not think that alone will suddenly catapult this market and turn things around. We have a ways to go imo. But, I hope I'm wrong and we really do find some support and some good news that we cannot see comes to light, soon!
I've been trying to focus more on the charting, resistance, support, averages, etc., just hoping that helps in figuring out what the markets MAY do if they trade into a certain position. But markets rarely do what I think lol. Others have a much better track record.
I've been trying to focus more on the charting, resistance, support, averages, etc., just hoping that helps in figuring out what the markets MAY do if they trade into a certain position. But markets rarely do what I think lol. Others have a much better track record.
This recent trading range seems to be a very important area. A push above 3750, the open gap, opens the door to a possible move up to 3950 - the top of the left shoulder. A break below 3600 could precede a precipitous decline.
There was a week in October of 2008 where the S&P 500 lost 18% -- yes, in a week!
There was a week in October of 2008 where the S&P 500 lost 18% -- yes, in a week!
Stocks are snapping back this first day of trading in October - new month, new direction? I'm skeptical although there is a positive bias when a new month starts because of new money coming into the market.
Oscar mentioned the 9 day moving average as being significant recently on the Russell 2000 chart so I ran it on the DWCPF (S-fund) and it seems to be meaningful here as well. Let's see if it can break above it or if it will continue to act as resistance.
Yields and the dollar are down to start the new week, and oil is up more than $4 a barrel.
Gold an silver are also flying high this morning.
Oscar mentioned the 9 day moving average as being significant recently on the Russell 2000 chart so I ran it on the DWCPF (S-fund) and it seems to be meaningful here as well. Let's see if it can break above it or if it will continue to act as resistance.
Yields and the dollar are down to start the new week, and oil is up more than $4 a barrel.
Gold an silver are also flying high this morning.
The bear flag on the small caps breaks up. Investors are anticipating a monetary pivot, but nothing from the Fed suggesting this yet.
Gaps are opening on the charts and the next resistance on DWCPF is about 20-point overhead.
Yields and the dollar are down again, which is helping trigger the rally in stocks, oil, gold, silver, bitcoin, etc.
Gaps are opening on the charts and the next resistance on DWCPF is about 20-point overhead.
Yields and the dollar are down again, which is helping trigger the rally in stocks, oil, gold, silver, bitcoin, etc.
We've seen a lot of these 2 - 4 day rallies fail this year with a few that go on longer. The question when you see one start is whether this is going to be of the 2 - 4 day variety, or the 1 to 2 month variety.
The jury is still out on this one as we see some backing and filling of yesterday's gains, but there's an open gap below and that could be the downside target, or maybe even another test of the lows.
What we may least expect is to see today's decline fall short of the open gap and rally right back, making it just as good of a possibility, I suppose.
This morning's stronger than expected ADP jobs report seems to be turning the perceived Fed pivot hopes back down.
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-economy/37079-adp-employment-change.html#post678693
The jury is still out on this one as we see some backing and filling of yesterday's gains, but there's an open gap below and that could be the downside target, or maybe even another test of the lows.
What we may least expect is to see today's decline fall short of the open gap and rally right back, making it just as good of a possibility, I suppose.
This morning's stronger than expected ADP jobs report seems to be turning the perceived Fed pivot hopes back down.
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-economy/37079-adp-employment-change.html#post678693
Some choppy action to start the day as investors and traders position themselves in front of tomorrow's important jobs report. Yields and the dollar are moving higher this morning putting some downside pressure to stocks.
Next week we'll get another CPI report. These two reports could completely change the complexion of the bear market, or feed it if it looks like inflation is still gaining strength or even maintain the recent high levels.
There was a lot of intrigue over this huge options purchase story betting on a big rally...
Wed: One Big Option Trade Fueled S&P 500’s Midday Jump, Wells Fargo Says
https://www.yahoo.com/now/one-big-option-trade-fueled-193109433.html
Next week we'll get another CPI report. These two reports could completely change the complexion of the bear market, or feed it if it looks like inflation is still gaining strength or even maintain the recent high levels.
There was a lot of intrigue over this huge options purchase story betting on a big rally...
Wed: One Big Option Trade Fueled S&P 500’s Midday Jump, Wells Fargo Says
https://www.yahoo.com/now/one-big-option-trade-fueled-193109433.html
rdodson
Member
Stocks will probably rally if the election leans even more to Republican control of both houses...neutralizing the progressive agenda is needed for the market to trend bullish. Of course, one nuclear bomb of any size will....ohoh...:ban:
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