tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Another Goldilocks jobs report with 313,000 jobs added which is just above estimates, but the unemployment went up from 3.5% to 3.7% and wages were lower than expected. These are two numbers that will get the Fed's attention that their interest rate cuts may be working. If I was sitting in a room and had to come up with some figures to help the stock market, these would basically be the numbers. The S&P futures shot up from flat to +30 after the release.

 

[tsptalk]

Some downside follow through to start the holiday shortened week, after Friday's negative reversal.

The dollar and the 10-year yield are ripping higher, putting pressure on stock prices again. Oil is flat and the metals are up despite the strong dollar.

The S&P has bounced back to just slightly negative, but it is just breathing this morning, while it negotiates the strong support in the 3900 area. There is still an open gap down near 3800 so that is always a possible target.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is up again but the yield on the 10-year Treasury is down (to 3.29%) so stocks are trying to make something happen after this vicious losing streak. The Nasdaq is trying to break a 7 day losing streak, the longest since 2016. It's up about 70-points in early trading, but in this environment, that gain is vulnerable.

The high yield corporate bond fund (HYG) is up about 0.50% and the stock market appreciates that. That related to the credit market.

Oil is trading down $3 to $83 a barrel.

 

[tsptalk]

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.75% this morning, spoiling what looked like a positive open for US markets. And that was the case as stocks opened lower as the dollar got pushed up again.

The indices battled back into positive territory while the yield on the 10-year Treasury is down slightly although also off its lows, but both seems to be directionless early this morning.

The market has been due for a bounce but it seems to be dealing with a constant flow of bad news.

Oil is up modestly this morning and bitcoin has battled back above 19,000 with a small gain.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are trying to break a three week losing streak and as of right now it has a 3.5% gain for the week, so barring any major meltdown later today...

The biggest assist the market is getting today may be the drop in the dollar. However, it is falling to the breakout point which could be tough support.

Because of that decline, my quote board is a sea of green from stocks to oil, nat gas, gold, silver, bitcoin, even bonds are up slightly.

 

[tsptalk]

A good start to a Monday morning with gains near 1%. We can't always trust a gap up opening on a Monday so let's see how it develops. The S&P did gap above what could have been tough resistance. The small caps are already trying to fill the open gap, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, unless it doesn't bounce back.

 

[tsptalk]

The yield on the 10-year T-note is down slightly, but still near recent highs. Meanwhile the dollar gapped down again. Commodities are enjoying that. Silver is up almost $1 which is about 5%.

 

[rangerray]

There's also a sliver of a gap that never got filled on the S&P back around June 21.

 

[tsptalk]

There are a few below but yes, that looks like the lowest one.

There's also a sliver of a gap that never got filled on the S&P back around June 21.

 

[tsptalk]

The VIX is up 6.2% ??

Must be a Monday thing.

 

[tsptalk]

The bond market saw this coming a lot better than the stock market did. The yield on the 10-year is likely to test the prior highs, but then what? Breakout, pullback? And the dollar reversed that fake out breakdown.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are up modestly although small caps are lagging and begin the day down again. It's tough for a rally to gain much traction after a day like yesterday. The bigger the fall, the more damage is done and it's not so easy to just get up from a fall like that and run again. It could take some time.

Yields and oil are up again adding some pressure to stocks, but the dollar is backing off slightly from Tuesday's big rally.

The Transports are not bouncing, rather testing the early September lows with another 1.6% decline.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar is flat but that isn't keeping the price of oil (and nat gas) from falling hard this morning as demand concerns arise because of weakening economic data.

Stocks opened lower giving back yesterday's gains already in the S&P 500.

It's early and things could change quickly, but it is a also options expiration week and not everything will make sense between now and Friday's close.

 

[tsptalk]

It's getting very whippy out there. Don't get too concerned about pops and drops because most of it has to do with tomorrow's quadruple witching expiration day. Lots of noise, but great for day traders trying to get fills.

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports are getting hit hard today after FedEx's warning.

That was fast. Technical analysis is working. Here's the text and chart I posted in Thursday's Commentary.

The Dow Transportation Index was down 2% early on yesterday and it looked as if it was reacting to this news, but it actually recovered with the rest of the market and closed above support. That was the good news. The bad new is the ugly blue head and shoulders pattern that has been developing here. The downside target of a break down from the blue head and shoulders, which they tend to do, would be right near the June lows. And, to add insult to injury, all of that could be part of the head of an even larger head and shoulder pattern (green.) That's three H&S patterns and that's not good.

Here we are today. The bad news, if this isn't bad enough, is that the green right shoulder that I speculated above, is filling out and and that probably means another breakdown at some point, with a target (as of now) down another 1000 points from this morning's low. They may try to fill the gap first.

 

[tsptalk]

The VIX is up but it has remained stubbornly heavy through this recent sell off. Options expiation may have something to do with it.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are down to start the new week, but quickly came off the opening lows. The yield on the 10-year T-note is making a new high - hitting levels not seen since 2011. The dollar is up, adding to the pressure on stocks.

High Yield Corp. Bonds are down after a big reversal rally on Friday.

Gold and silver are down, as is oil and bitcoin.

Homebuilder sentiment fell for the ninth straight month.

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports are bouncing today's after Friday's major sell off. There's an open gap up to about 13450, and if that is filled it would fill out the rights shoulder of the large head and shoulders pattern. If 12750 fails, the H&S pattern suggests another 1000 point drop below the H&S.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are popping higher again today and that continues to add pressure to the stock market.

Like a holiday or major economic data release, it's tough to trust the action right before an FOMC rate decision because it could be a fake out to get us leaning the wrong way, but this chart does not look like it is fooling around with a double top right now.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 seems to be coiling up for something - whether another push lower to fill the open gap near 3800, and potentially the June lows, or maybe a rally up where there are other open gaps and perhaps the indices are a little oversold. That orange rectangle, which was an old gap, seems to be a sticky area.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury is down, but so far it is just cleaning up yesterday's open gap. The dollar is up making another new high.