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tsptalk's Market Talk
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Bullitt
Well-known member
I don't like when resistance is broken higher with a gap up since it almost guarantees backfilling somewhere along the line. Would rather have seen an open in the red, then the big move. Massive short covering today on this inflation number today right out of the gate.
WSJ did call a new bull market some time in early April 2020 and they got that one right. The bearish guys I follow are more bearish than ever and calling for a collapse, but then again, they tend to always say that kind of thing.
WSJ did call a new bull market some time in early April 2020 and they got that one right. The bearish guys I follow are more bearish than ever and calling for a collapse, but then again, they tend to always say that kind of thing.
Actual PPI: -0.5% (analysts really missed the boat on this one.) :suspicious:
Actual Core PPI: 0.2%
Stocks up after the softer than expected PPI. Yields are upas well, and the dollar is down.
The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is up again (2 consecutive gaps), and this time it move above the 200-day EMA. It's now dealing with a possible double top, but this sure has been strong and a good sign for stocks.
The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is up again (2 consecutive gaps), and this time it move above the 200-day EMA. It's now dealing with a possible double top, but this sure has been strong and a good sign for stocks.
Stocks are up after Thursday negative reversal day. Intraday reversals have historically been good indicators for more short-term action in the direction of the reversal, but that really hasn't been the case in recent months. I circled those recent negative reversals. Most led to a little downside follow through, but not always that much, but there could be some sellers in the 4250 area again since the people who gave back gains yesterday don't want to see that repeated.
So far this has been an "inside day" as the S&P trades within Thursday's range, but it's very early and that could change.
Yields are down (bond prices up) and the dollar is up in early trading today.
So far this has been an "inside day" as the S&P trades within Thursday's range, but it's very early and that could change.
Yields are down (bond prices up) and the dollar is up in early trading today.
I feel like these last, almost 3 years, have been unusual. I was looking at your premium content this morning and comparing that VIX chart you had in there against the Smart Money below it. Is it me or do they look similar? I guess they probably would mirror each other more closely that I ever gave thought to. Maybe it's just me lol.
Bullitt
Well-known member
With rates as low as they were, there was massive investment in speculative ideas from whales like Softbank ($4B loss in Vision Fund) along with an unknown amount of Sovereign Wealth Funds, hedge funds and family offices (Shadow Economy). These were the guys moving that smart money needle. If any of these bets were hedged, like hedge funds used to operate, the trade was likely too large and crowded to even be offset. Sounds so cliche but higher rates popped the bubble.
Don't forget about the individuals who plowed money that was created out of thin air into crypto, PTON, AMC, Gamestop, SNOW, TDOC, WING, ROKU, etc, who are now down enormously. Celsius network failing had a big part in this, but it also goes to show how ridiculous things got when you could make a 13% yield risk free when treasuries were yielding less than 1%.
Not much of either investment was even real - in the end it was all money that didn't even exist. The idea of filling startups with cash or giving cash to companies that will soon be gone is not a long term strategy if the company cannot execute on that money. The business cycle worked and did what needs to happen in a capitalism based economy. In this case, I think it's safe to say that maybe one or two of those 50 high flying stocks will break even decades away, but everything else will go to zero or be acquired.
Don't forget about the individuals who plowed money that was created out of thin air into crypto, PTON, AMC, Gamestop, SNOW, TDOC, WING, ROKU, etc, who are now down enormously. Celsius network failing had a big part in this, but it also goes to show how ridiculous things got when you could make a 13% yield risk free when treasuries were yielding less than 1%.
Not much of either investment was even real - in the end it was all money that didn't even exist. The idea of filling startups with cash or giving cash to companies that will soon be gone is not a long term strategy if the company cannot execute on that money. The business cycle worked and did what needs to happen in a capitalism based economy. In this case, I think it's safe to say that maybe one or two of those 50 high flying stocks will break even decades away, but everything else will go to zero or be acquired.
Stocks opened lower on Monday morning, but it didn't take long for the dip buyers to show up and push the S&P and Nasdaq into the green temporarily, but it's still choppy. Small caps are lagging and still down as of this post.
Bonds and the dollar are up this morning as yields slipped lower with the 10-year Treasury trading back below 2.8%. Commodities like gold, silver and natural gas are down with the strength in the dollar.
Oil is trading sharply lower with the September futures below $88 a barrel.
China's economic data has been sluggish lately.
Bonds and the dollar are up this morning as yields slipped lower with the 10-year Treasury trading back below 2.8%. Commodities like gold, silver and natural gas are down with the strength in the dollar.
Oil is trading sharply lower with the September futures below $88 a barrel.
China's economic data has been sluggish lately.
Chart of the day from today's Market Commentary:
China has been in an economic slowdown and their July data has come up short of expectations. Their Central Bank jumped in yesterday and actually cut interest rates. I took a look at their Shanghai Index and noticed something interesting when compared to the S&P 500. The S&P has been lagging behind the Shanghai Index by about a month for the last year.
rangerray
Active member
Great commentary for today!
That was a very good point about the moving averages. I tend to use my trading view charts the same way all of the time because I'm limited with the free version and I'm too lazy to change settings. Your example showed how worthwhile it is to experiment with the program.
Thanks for the tip!!
That was a very good point about the moving averages. I tend to use my trading view charts the same way all of the time because I'm limited with the free version and I'm too lazy to change settings. Your example showed how worthwhile it is to experiment with the program.
Thanks for the tip!!
How can the market mess up the most people today?
It could complete fall apart today with a huge loss, forcing anyone, particularly TSP and other pensions with similar rules, to take the loss before they have a chance to get out at COB.
It could fall early, get TSP'ers to sell today before the TSP deadline, and then head right back up without missing a beat on the upside.
I don't know if either will happen, but this kind of stuff happens all the time. The market (aka Wall Street pros) tries to extricate you from your money ESPECIALLY on panic days, either up or down.
Same with most crises. They happen. Wall Street makes money. The people usually lose money, and then they move on to the next one.
OK, a little melodramatic for early on a Wednesday morning and a less than 1% loss in stocks, but that's how it works.
It could complete fall apart today with a huge loss, forcing anyone, particularly TSP and other pensions with similar rules, to take the loss before they have a chance to get out at COB.
It could fall early, get TSP'ers to sell today before the TSP deadline, and then head right back up without missing a beat on the upside.
I don't know if either will happen, but this kind of stuff happens all the time. The market (aka Wall Street pros) tries to extricate you from your money ESPECIALLY on panic days, either up or down.
Same with most crises. They happen. Wall Street makes money. The people usually lose money, and then they move on to the next one.
OK, a little melodramatic for early on a Wednesday morning and a less than 1% loss in stocks, but that's how it works.
Some selling to start Thursday's trading day, but not a lot o conviction from the bears yet. That could change, but if not, the bulls may push them aside and go back to buying.
The 10-year yield is down (price up) and the 2/10 year yield curve remains inverted.
Another push higher in the dollar has the metals flat, but crude oil is up slightly as it tries to hold onto recent lows.
Jobless claims came in at 250,000 for last week, down 2,000 from the previous week and below the 260,000 estimates.
The 10-year yield is down (price up) and the 2/10 year yield curve remains inverted.
Another push higher in the dollar has the metals flat, but crude oil is up slightly as it tries to hold onto recent lows.
Jobless claims came in at 250,000 for last week, down 2,000 from the previous week and below the 260,000 estimates.
The dollar is up again at the open, yields are up, oil is up (slightly). Today's commentary shows why this combination is a problem.
Almost everything else is down to start the day.
Almost everything else is down to start the day.
Stocks are down sharply while bonds are slightly lower to start the day.
The dollar is spiking up again so oil, the metals and HYG (and stocks) are down, as I talk about in today's commentary.
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ts...sing-yields-oil-send-stocks-lower-friday.html
The dollar is spiking up again so oil, the metals and HYG (and stocks) are down, as I talk about in today's commentary.
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ts...sing-yields-oil-send-stocks-lower-friday.html
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