Bullitt
Well-known member
Back to below that 4180 breakout line with momentum oscillators turning down.
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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
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Back to below that 4180 breakout line with momentum oscillators turning down.
The dollar is pulling back from its double top so far this morning, and stock just went positive with small caps leading, but oil is at $93 / barrel and the 10-year yield is up slightly adding some pressure.
The bears have some momentum so we could see the early rally fade - unless the dollar stays sharply negative and goes after those open gaps below.
The bears have some momentum so we could see the early rally fade - unless the dollar stays sharply negative and goes after those open gaps below.
Stocks are trying to hold up despite the triple whammy this morning of a stronger dollar, higher yields, and higher oil prices.
The dollar has recovered yesterday's losses already and knocking on the double top again. The 10-year T-note is at 3.1%.
Oil (via the USO ETF) is trying to reclaim its 50-day EMA.
The dollar has recovered yesterday's losses already and knocking on the double top again. The 10-year T-note is at 3.1%.
Oil (via the USO ETF) is trying to reclaim its 50-day EMA.
The dollar is flat, yields are flat, and oil is down half a dollar so the bulls are taking advantage.
Some better than expected weekly jobless claims numbers and a smaller decline in Q2 GDP est. may be helping.
Trading volume should be light today in front of tomorrow's speech from Powell at Jackson Hole.
The action looks good on the charts but is it a buy the rumor, sell the news set up?
I wonder if Powell will take questions on the student loan forgiveness and it's impact on inflation?
Some better than expected weekly jobless claims numbers and a smaller decline in Q2 GDP est. may be helping.
Trading volume should be light today in front of tomorrow's speech from Powell at Jackson Hole.
The action looks good on the charts but is it a buy the rumor, sell the news set up?
I wonder if Powell will take questions on the student loan forgiveness and it's impact on inflation?
Lots of movement around key areas on the charts. We still have an open gap near about 4215 on the S&P while the small caps chart has filled that gap today.
The S&P is also now retesting the 200-day EMA, which wasn't as big of a factor as the 200-day simple moving average as far as resistance goes.
This is either a buying opportunity to buy the turnaround of the recent pullback, or the fake out so they can pull the rug out from investors again.
You make the call.
The S&P is also now retesting the 200-day EMA, which wasn't as big of a factor as the 200-day simple moving average as far as resistance goes.
This is either a buying opportunity to buy the turnaround of the recent pullback, or the fake out so they can pull the rug out from investors again.
You make the call.
The futures were lower most of the night but the PCE prices and personal income data came in lighter than expected and the futures shot up. However once the opening bell rang we saw the indices back in the modestly lower camp.
It will be a fast moving morning so, if you like to watch volatility and huge swings in the indices, you'll get your chance today. If you don't... don't watch.
It will be tough to base any decision on the first reaction. These kind of swings are good if you are trying to buy or sell something during the day at a specific price. Put your limit orders in and hope you get hit. For TSP decisions, that first hour will likely only confuse you.
S&P 500 Today...
It will be a fast moving morning so, if you like to watch volatility and huge swings in the indices, you'll get your chance today. If you don't... don't watch.
It will be tough to base any decision on the first reaction. These kind of swings are good if you are trying to buy or sell something during the day at a specific price. Put your limit orders in and hope you get hit. For TSP decisions, that first hour will likely only confuse you.
S&P 500 Today...
After the weak open, right now there is literally only a 0.41 open gap between Friday's low and today's high so the bulls have basically successfully filled that. Can they keep the pressure on or will they be happy just to get back to Friday's prices and relent?
As I mentioned in today's commentary, those old open gaps may come back into play. The first June gap was just filled again.
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ts...-put-up-midday-fight-but-bears-win-again.html
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ts...-put-up-midday-fight-but-bears-win-again.html
Stocks have been whipping around quite a bit this morning but so far every attempt by the bulls to push an oversold bounce, the bear have countered with selling. Looks like bear market action. I mentioned in today's commentary that a pre-holiday reversal bounce could manifest, but today's action shows us why it can be a very risky endeavor in a bear market.
The dollar knocked on the new highs door yet again this morning, and was swatted back down yet again. That's a bullish formation - sort of a cup and handle, although I still don't completely know why the dollar is strong in an inflationary environment. I believe it has to do with inflation being worse in Europe.
Yields are up slightly but mostly flat, but the warnings come from the 2-year Treasury Yield (red) continue to move up higher than the 10-year Yield (black.) That's an inverted yield curve and suggests economic trouble looming.
The dollar knocked on the new highs door yet again this morning, and was swatted back down yet again. That's a bullish formation - sort of a cup and handle, although I still don't completely know why the dollar is strong in an inflationary environment. I believe it has to do with inflation being worse in Europe.
Yields are up slightly but mostly flat, but the warnings come from the 2-year Treasury Yield (red) continue to move up higher than the 10-year Yield (black.) That's an inverted yield curve and suggests economic trouble looming.
Could this be a fake out? I think you pointed out yesterday a cup and handle so maybe it sticks. Haven't looked at global currencies this morning but man if that keeps rolling it will be interesting for equities. To add oil came back down yesterday, again haven't looked at it this morning or much for that matter. I need more coffee lol.
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