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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
The historic post midterm market action is fairly strong through the end of the year, but interestingly it is mixed to weak after the election thru the end of November - when looking at the three particular situations we are in this year: 1st term midterm, Dem president midterm, and 2nd year Dem president
Very choppy, flat action so far to start the new week with the elections on deck.
Yields are up putting pressure on the market but the dollar is down so I see commodity prices are up again - gold, silver, oil, nat gas, etc.
It's just directionless right now and tough to get a feel for which way it wants to go. CPI on Thursday and the eventual election result could give us more of a definitive direction.
Yields are up putting pressure on the market but the dollar is down so I see commodity prices are up again - gold, silver, oil, nat gas, etc.
It's just directionless right now and tough to get a feel for which way it wants to go. CPI on Thursday and the eventual election result could give us more of a definitive direction.
Yields and the dollar are down this morning, helping give the stock market some buoyancy on election day. See a few posts back about the midterm election tendencies.
Small caps are lagging a bit and it's the Dow (30 stocks) that have been leading the market for the last couple of months, and that's without the help of Apple and other big tech companies that led the market up for years. The I-fund continues to lead during this pullback in the dollar.
The weak dollar also has gold and silver rallying, while oil is flat and nat gas is falling hard.
Bitcoin is getting slammed for some reason - down $1435 at the moment.
Tomorrow could be interesting if we don't know who controls the House and Senate by then. And of course the CPI report will be the biggie on Thursday.
Good luck!
Small caps are lagging a bit and it's the Dow (30 stocks) that have been leading the market for the last couple of months, and that's without the help of Apple and other big tech companies that led the market up for years. The I-fund continues to lead during this pullback in the dollar.
The weak dollar also has gold and silver rallying, while oil is flat and nat gas is falling hard.
Bitcoin is getting slammed for some reason - down $1435 at the moment.
Tomorrow could be interesting if we don't know who controls the House and Senate by then. And of course the CPI report will be the biggie on Thursday.
Good luck!
weatherweenie
Well-known member
A new indicator?
I've noticed a slowdown in posting recently. I would think some of it has to do with the bear market and market timers with big losses turning into buy and holders -- turning off the noise.
rdodson
Member
I've noticed a slowdown in posting recently. I would think some of it has to do with the bear market and market timers with big losses turning into buy and holders -- turning off the noise.
With the midterm turning out not as advertised, I would surmise that investors are not sure if there is uncertainty in the country's direction or will the Federal Branches of Government keep each other in check and reasonably stagnant.
Until the election has a definitive conclusion, we may be with uncertainty for a few days and then more finality on Dec 6th. Then a clearer market direction will be seen.
Perhaps Santa Claus will be cancelled this year.
With the midterm turning out not as advertised, I would surmise that investors are not sure if there is uncertainty in the country's direction or will the Federal Branches of Government keep each other in check and reasonably stagnant.
Until the election has a definitive conclusion, we may be with uncertainty for a few days and then more finality on Dec 6th. Then a clearer market direction will be seen.
Perhaps Santa Claus will be cancelled this year.
Hopefully Santa will show up, but perhaps we just have to get past this post-election hangover.
Looks like the CPI has the market pricing in a 0.50% hike in December now.
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases
FYI, the market is open tomorrow. Just no TSP transactions.
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases
FYI, the market is open tomorrow. Just no TSP transactions.
More favorable inflation data with the PPI report coming in cooler than expected.
Yields and the dollar are down again and the algorithms are buying again after a brief day off yesterday.
I talked about how inflation is not a one way street that fixes itself. I talked about this in Monday's commentary. It's a sensitive giant that needs constant attention as they found out in the 1970's, and Jay Powell knows this.
The stock market is in rally mode and continues to climb off the lows and there's a little more room on the upside before it tests a couple of typical road blocks, especially in a bear market. That is the 200-day MA which held in August, and the top of an open gap from September.
Yields and the dollar are down again and the algorithms are buying again after a brief day off yesterday.
I talked about how inflation is not a one way street that fixes itself. I talked about this in Monday's commentary. It's a sensitive giant that needs constant attention as they found out in the 1970's, and Jay Powell knows this.
The stock market is in rally mode and continues to climb off the lows and there's a little more room on the upside before it tests a couple of typical road blocks, especially in a bear market. That is the 200-day MA which held in August, and the top of an open gap from September.
The S&P 500's 200-day EMA was the high today. It was enough with all the other headwinds to trigger some quick selling mid-day, although the index is bouncing back some.
The stock market is in rally mode and continues to climb off the lows and there's a little more room on the upside before it tests a couple of typical road blocks, especially in a bear market. That is the 200-day MA which held in August, and the top of an open gap from September.
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