tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the final hour / 30 minutes today after a losing first quarter for stocks. Money managers may have made their major window dressing moves already, but any last minute adjustments could come in that final hour.

In recent days the bulls have come out in that final hour, but today, the last change to dump losers (get those holding off their reports) is now, but they could also try to buy some of the quarter's winners like in the energy sector.

Tomorrow, the 1st of April, they could try to buy back into some of those losers that they dumped in March.

It could be interesting to watch.

 

[tsptalk]

It could be interesting to watch.

Well, that was interesting.

 

[tsptalk]

Kind of a quiet start to the new quarter. Stocks are up slightly, but after Thursday's late drubbing, no real bounce back yet. The yield in the 10-yer is up, but so is the 2-year so that remains inverted for a second day.

Small caps are outperforming. Commodities are struggling as the dollar continues to remain buoyant and, looking at that big bull flag, actually may be bracing for a big breakout to the upside. Interesting considering inflation is so high. Perhaps there is news coming down the pike of inflation becoming less severe?

There are open gaps getting filled, so that could be the case as well, and the top of the gap near 26.45 may be some resistance.

 

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Boom! The rail and delivery stocks are getting hammered today pushing the Dow Transports down sharply (-4.34%) -- right down to the open gap after filling the overhead gap (blue).

 

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That can't be good

Boom! The rail and delivery stocks are getting hammered today pushing the Dow Transports down sharply (-4.34%) -- right down to the open gap after filling the overhead gap (blue).

 

[tsptalk]

Flat futures turned into some buying at the opening bell. That orange moving average remains a force on the S&P 500 chart. I still think the 50-day avg (purple) would be a better place for this to test, to sustain a rally. This dip has been too shallow for the size of the rally.

The small caps are also getting support from a moving average that had been resistance during the correction / bear market.

The dollar remains strong for some reason, and that bull flag would have us believe that it could continue in that direction. I guess just the threat of more rate hikes can make the dollar stronger.

Oil is up nicely despite the strength in the dollar, but there is some overhead resistance on this oil ETF chart.

The Transports were down 1% near the opening bell but caught a bid after flirting with its 200-day EMA again.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened lower after a night of red futures, but dip buyer's were waiting at the doorstep to do some buying.

Energy and commodity stocks are leading again as oil moves back above $104.

The Nasdaq are lagging after yesterday's big gains. The Transports and small caps are also down modesty.

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Transports looks like it filled that lower gap from 3/14-15. Let's see if that's it. I'd like to add to my position but recent DJT and HYG action has me hesitant.

 

[tsptalk]

Transports looks like it filled that lower gap from 3/14-15. Let's see if that's it. I'd like to add to my position but recent DJT and HYG action has me hesitant.

 

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More selling today and we see the S&P 500 coming down to test the 50-day EMA.

The small caps have broken below their 50-day average and look a little more vulnerable. The question is whether the bears have enough in them to fill that open gap down below 1850. There is some support near 1900.


The 10-year yield continues to move higher and it plowed through more resistance.

The HYG High Yield Corporate Bond Fund broke down from its wedge pattern, but it is near its highs of the day as it tries to fill the gap.

 

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Kind of a slow start to Thursday with the Dow down about 200 and the other major indices are flat to modestly lower.

Investors seem a little shell-shocked by the recent negative reversal but that was quite a rally off the lows and a little backing and filling was not a surprise. The question everyone is asking is whether this is the start of another leg down or not.

The 50-day EMA is trying to hold again this morning, and if it doesn't hold, it's about another 1.5% down to the 200-day average.

The yield on the 10-year is up again, as is the relentless dollar as it reacts to the Fed's aggressiveness.

Oil is up, bonds are down, and the metals are up slightly.

 

[tsptalk]

Soaring interest rates and a strong dollar is a lot of pressure for the stock market this morning. Looking to see if key support levels to hold in the indices.

 

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The battle between the moving averages. Who will win - orange or purple?

 

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Yields are up again putting more pressure on stocks. The Transports are up and the small caps (russell) are actually holding up well - possible a good sign, but there is still that small open gap on the Russell 2000 nearby.

The S&P 500 broke below its 50-EMA (purple) and may now relying on the 200-day and the early March high for support. Large tech is struggling dragging the Naz and S&P down.

 

[tsptalk]

Great start for stocks this morning after CPI report. The S&P 500 is up but up against some tough resistance so the test starts right here. There the top of the open gap, the descending resistance line and that 50-day EMA (purple.)

Small caps have more room to run but only because they had fallen further.

This could just be an oversold bounce, but if inflation concerns ease it could be a game changer.

 

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Oil is back above $100 this morning.

 

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Stocks are up modestly this morning. The large caps are struggling to recapture the 200 day average and some resistance from the early March peak.

Small caps are looking a little better as they consolidate near some potential support and what could be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.


The credit market via HYG looks like it it is trying to form a double bottom low. Too early to call it that yet though. It's still in an ugly downtrend.

 

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So much for the pre-holiday reversal continuing today. (More in today's commentary)

 

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The early Monday action has been choppy and mixed so far as the S&P 500 is off its lows but up against its 200-day EMA.

Small caps (dwcpf) are down sharply testing the lower end of its recent range. There are meaningful open gaps above and below on this charts.

Energy and tech are leading.

Yields and the dollar are up slightly so far this morning, with the metals rallying, and bitcoin falling.

 

[tsptalk]

Another Turnaround Tuesday? Stocks start the day with a rally, and while it looks hopeful, we've seen this before as the indices move back up to the tops of their range.

The S-fund (dwcps) filled a small gap, so the 1.16% gain needs a lot more to go to improve the chart.

The S&P 500 is nearly testing the top of its range already, and of course that pesky 50-day EMA (purple.)

The Transports are up 1.8% and has been trying to reclaim that 300-day EMA (orange), but the 200-day EMA is still looming above. So far the double bottom low is holding so there's some promise.

Oil is down a few dollars. The 10-year yield and the dollar are up.