-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
A little upside follow through to start the day, with the Fed rate hike on deck tomorrow.
Yesterday they went after the stop orders that were below the February low, and that triggered a counter rally. Volume wasn't all that high making the reversal suspect, but it all comes down to the Fed. They are in a corner and may not have the weapons to do much, but what do we really want them to do? A 0.25% hike might get investors excited for a little while, but that may not help the inflation situation. 0.50% is expected, and then it would be all about their outlook and what they have to say at the press conference after the rate hike. 0.75% could be a sign of fear from the Fed. Tomorrow could be wild -- one way or the other, or both.
Yesterday they went after the stop orders that were below the February low, and that triggered a counter rally. Volume wasn't all that high making the reversal suspect, but it all comes down to the Fed. They are in a corner and may not have the weapons to do much, but what do we really want them to do? A 0.25% hike might get investors excited for a little while, but that may not help the inflation situation. 0.50% is expected, and then it would be all about their outlook and what they have to say at the press conference after the rate hike. 0.75% could be a sign of fear from the Fed. Tomorrow could be wild -- one way or the other, or both.
The calm before the storm -- a mixed market this morning before the Fed rate hike this afternoon.
The more interest rate sensitive small caps and the Nasdaq are lagging today with the Naz down 1%. The Dow is trying to hold onto a small gain.
The charts suggest a bearish scenario, and it is tough to anticipate a good outcome in this environment. Yet stocks are oversold and investors are overly bearish and that could ignite a rally, especially if the Fed says something that triggers FOMO from those underinvested.
0.25%, 0.50%, or 0.75% ??
Oscar (livewithoscar) expects a 0.25% cut, while most people anticipate 0.50% (99.1% probability according to cmegroup). It would be impressive if Oscar gets it right.
The more interest rate sensitive small caps and the Nasdaq are lagging today with the Naz down 1%. The Dow is trying to hold onto a small gain.
The charts suggest a bearish scenario, and it is tough to anticipate a good outcome in this environment. Yet stocks are oversold and investors are overly bearish and that could ignite a rally, especially if the Fed says something that triggers FOMO from those underinvested.
0.25%, 0.50%, or 0.75% ??
Oscar (livewithoscar) expects a 0.25% cut, while most people anticipate 0.50% (99.1% probability according to cmegroup). It would be impressive if Oscar gets it right.
Here's a weekly chart of the S-fund in both linear and log scale:
The chart is really getting deep below its 50-week average. During the financial crisis in 2008 the log scale version really shows how bad that period was, and I suppose how bad things can still get. But aside from that one, and perhaps the COVID crash, this may be getting overly stretched to the downside.
Just as bull markets tend to overshoot, bear markets tend to take things down more than we'd expect, not taking prices to fairly valued, but to undervalued before it's over.
The chart is really getting deep below its 50-week average. During the financial crisis in 2008 the log scale version really shows how bad that period was, and I suppose how bad things can still get. But aside from that one, and perhaps the COVID crash, this may be getting overly stretched to the downside.
Just as bull markets tend to overshoot, bear markets tend to take things down more than we'd expect, not taking prices to fairly valued, but to undervalued before it's over.
Don't remember much these days (youthful indiscretions?) , but this post struck my funny bone way back when.
I think you have an answer!!
I think you have an answer!!
A pop higher at the open today but there's probably not a lot of believers out there. Positive opens in downtrends tend to get sold, but that pessimism can be the building block of a low so we may be fairly close to some kind of a real bounce. The problem is all of the overhead resistance we now have on the charts.
The small caps actually completed the head and shoulders breakdown and hit an initial target. That doesn't mean it can't go lower but it does satisfy the H&S formation. The next move could be an attempt to move back to the neckline, and that will be tough resistance.
Bonds are getting some interest again today and may have something going, but who can trust it?
The small caps actually completed the head and shoulders breakdown and hit an initial target. That doesn't mean it can't go lower but it does satisfy the H&S formation. The next move could be an attempt to move back to the neckline, and that will be tough resistance.
Bonds are getting some interest again today and may have something going, but who can trust it?
The CPI report came in near expectation but the fact that it wasn't worse than last month is giving some hope that inflation could be peaking.
Stocks are up moderately to start the day, while bond yields are up slightly, and dollar is down.
I wonder if the TSP will offer an energy mutual fund next month? As Jim Cramer says, there's always a bull market somewhere and while stocks have been down all year, the energy sector continues to be in a bull market and perform well.
Stocks are up moderately to start the day, while bond yields are up slightly, and dollar is down.
I wonder if the TSP will offer an energy mutual fund next month? As Jim Cramer says, there's always a bull market somewhere and while stocks have been down all year, the energy sector continues to be in a bull market and perform well.
Stocks opened lower but have bounced back to more of a mixed picture with small caps leading the way higher.
Yields are down as the 10-year moved below its 20 day average for the first time in a while, and that's pushing BND and the F-fund above some major resistance (hmmm).. The dollar is making new highs again sending the metals gold, silver, etc.) down.
Bitcoin continues to be volatile trading in wide $4000 intraday ranges - mostly down lately.
Yields are down as the 10-year moved below its 20 day average for the first time in a while, and that's pushing BND and the F-fund above some major resistance (hmmm).. The dollar is making new highs again sending the metals gold, silver, etc.) down.
Bitcoin continues to be volatile trading in wide $4000 intraday ranges - mostly down lately.
Similar threads
- Article