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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 698
Or maybe some are trying to pocket gains from last week before month's end???? I am interested in unemployment numbers coming out in next few days. I have heard talking heads say that when we start to see unemployment go up, that will be an indication of impending recession, though this is not expected to happen until later this year or next year. 
????
????
- Reaction score
- 2,083
Futures turn from green to red after Microsoft gives 2nd quarter guidance warning.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/sto...investors-dwell-on-health-of-the-economy.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/sto...investors-dwell-on-health-of-the-economy.html
- Reaction score
- 2,083
I've been mostly focused on the TSP site's capabilities this morning, but we're having quite choppy session this morning. Small caps are popping higher but Microsoft's guidance warning is holding the Dow and S&P back so far.
Still waiting to hear if anyone else besides Marty was able to successfully input an IFT of the tsp.gov site?
I have opened the Autotracker back up for those who cam make IFTs. If we have to end up deleting those IFTs because there was some problem on TSP's website, I will, so please keep me posted.
Thanks!
Still waiting to hear if anyone else besides Marty was able to successfully input an IFT of the tsp.gov site?
I have opened the Autotracker back up for those who cam make IFTs. If we have to end up deleting those IFTs because there was some problem on TSP's website, I will, so please keep me posted.
Thanks!
I was able to make IFT yesterday and has been processed successfully when I checked this morning.
Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 698
That's great Cedarpine! :smile:
- Reaction score
- 2,083
The S&P seems to be consolidating in some kind of bullish flag but the 50-day EMA can be a rally killer in a bear market.
The DWCPF (s-fund) remains in what could be considered a bear flag below the 50-day EMA. Not the best set up but an eventual move above 1800 would go a long way in helping the bullish case.
The DWCPF (s-fund) remains in what could be considered a bear flag below the 50-day EMA. Not the best set up but an eventual move above 1800 would go a long way in helping the bullish case.
- Reaction score
- 2,083
Stocks came running out of the gate on Monday morning and now the indices are flirting with the top of some of their ranges. Here's the dilemma: They could flip back over and head toward the bottom of their recent ranges, or they could breakout. The 50-day EMA has been holding on both charts, but the bulls keep knocking on that door. Will someone finally let them in?
- Reaction score
- 2,083
Stocks are mixed after a lower opening on Tuesday. The action looks very... do or die, if you will. The bear market rally seemed to be running out of steam, but the indices are trying to hold up, as if there are just a lack of sellers, but no one is jumping on the dips either. If they can survive this we should see the bull make another move to another leg higher. The 20-day EMAs are trying to hold on all three, C, S, and I fund charts.
The HYG chart, not shown, is down again today, but off the lows like the charts below. That charts could be key for this rebound in stocks.
The HYG chart, not shown, is down again today, but off the lows like the charts below. That charts could be key for this rebound in stocks.
- Reaction score
- 2,083
More waffling between support and resistance in the bull flag for the S&P 500 (C-fund). The 50-day EMA has held as resistance for 8 days now - including today, and the 20-day EMA has been support that whole time. Something has to give.
The DWCPF (S-fund) is in that large bearish looking flag (red) but the green bull flag is starting to look more like an F-flag, which can move higher for a while, but they tend to breakdown. I'm liking this less today than I did a few days ago.
The I-fund is moving counter to the dollar so we probably need to see the dollar rollover action for the I fund to get traction.
I don't like the look's of the Transports this morning. Failing at resistance, and the resistance is thick. Down 2.5% today.
The DWCPF (S-fund) is in that large bearish looking flag (red) but the green bull flag is starting to look more like an F-flag, which can move higher for a while, but they tend to breakdown. I'm liking this less today than I did a few days ago.
The I-fund is moving counter to the dollar so we probably need to see the dollar rollover action for the I fund to get traction.
I don't like the look's of the Transports this morning. Failing at resistance, and the resistance is thick. Down 2.5% today.
- Reaction score
- 2,083
Today was supposed to be the bulls' turn in the up and down choppy flags.
The Transportation Index and the High Yield Corporate Bonds are down again after breaking down days ago - unlike the charts above which are holding up for some reason.
The Transportation Index and the High Yield Corporate Bonds are down again after breaking down days ago - unlike the charts above which are holding up for some reason.
Could be early action lower and then turn around late into the close? If you are in the camp to want things to move higher, close lower and even open tomorrow down? Once CPI report comes out things reverse and big up day tomorrow? If your in the camp that want to see things move down, maybe turn around today and even close up, and perhaps start in green in the morning before the let down CPI number which could be a sell off day into the weekend?
Since we have had so many reversals during the trading sessions just hypotheticals lol :laugh:
Since we have had so many reversals during the trading sessions just hypotheticals lol :laugh:
- Reaction score
- 2,083
As I mentioned in my commentary recently, there were a lot of warning signs out there with the Transports and High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) crumbling several days days ago. We also had some bullish looking formations (bull flags) on the S&P 500 and small caps charts, so I thought maybe the market might continue to try to climb the wall of worry.
Then, when everyone anticipates a poor CPI inflation report, stocks fall into that report, we get the bad report, and stocks fall further after it? That's unusual.
It could be setting up an afternoon reversal, but Friday's are tough. Positive reversals on Friday can be explosive and then follow through on Monday, but getting that reversal before the weekend is the trick.
Being that we are in a bear market, and have been for months, and the news is bad, how much of that news is already priced in? The Fed is raising rates for a reason and we all knew that already. It will be tough but the series of 0.50% rate hikes should eventually control inflation to a point, but now the concern is, how much will that negatively impact the economy? The market is trying to put a number on that today.
Then, when everyone anticipates a poor CPI inflation report, stocks fall into that report, we get the bad report, and stocks fall further after it? That's unusual.
It could be setting up an afternoon reversal, but Friday's are tough. Positive reversals on Friday can be explosive and then follow through on Monday, but getting that reversal before the weekend is the trick.
Being that we are in a bear market, and have been for months, and the news is bad, how much of that news is already priced in? The Fed is raising rates for a reason and we all knew that already. It will be tough but the series of 0.50% rate hikes should eventually control inflation to a point, but now the concern is, how much will that negatively impact the economy? The market is trying to put a number on that today.
Bullitt
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 73
I don't think enough of it is being priced in. Buy the dip mentality still remains. The ways of 2020 no longer work.
The inflation number today came in hotter than expected and as long as oil prices are doing anything but going down, it's going to kill earnings next quarter. Sentiment has been stuck in a "buy" for two months now with nothing to show for it - another sign of a bear market.
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