tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Nice rally to start the day and some rare follow up to yesterday's action. Of course the Fed is on deck and the charts have a lot of pesky resistance overhead.

Smack back down or breakouts? Wouldn't we like to know?

If the Transports are any indication... Boom!

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 is getting its 50/2000 day crossover oversold relief rally, but there's some resistance in the way from going any further. The 50-day SMA would is near 4436. The 50-day EMA is near 4409 (not shown).

Small caps are leading but testing a moving average right now that has given it some trouble this year.

 

[tsptalk]

50 day EMA getting tested again this morning...

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

If you've been reading my daily commentary this week, this will make some sense...

 

[tsptalk]

Oil is trading up 3.00 to 107.50 in the futures putting some pressure on the stock index futures. Nothing too meaningful yet, given it's still early Sunday night, but if oil stays elevated, the weakness in the futures could rollover into the opening bell.

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[tsptalk]

The S&P futures are just about flat heading into the opening bell, but oil is now over $109, which is above the resistance line.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

 

[tsptalk]

The early action saw some initial buying but the indices are starting to back off a little. That's normal after a big move but the trouble is not knowing if the moving averages where prior rallies failed are going to hold or not. Oil is going up again, and that's an issue.

The oil ETF USO gapped up with oil up 5.6% to start the day.

 

[tsptalk]

An impressive move for stocks this morning despite many roadblocks both on the chart, and in the fundies.

The price of Oil is down about 1.4% this morning helping the situation.

The High Yield Bond / credit market is not yet too enthused after reversing back down on Monday.

And the VIX is flirting with its 200-day EMA, which could make or break this recent rally in stocks if that holds.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks don't mind this?

I find that hard to believe.

 

[tsptalk]

The story this morning is, oil up, stocks struggle. Seems to be the trend - fade the oil move with stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

We get the March jobs report next Friday but between now and then there is a dearth of market moving economic data so the market will focus on oil and the Russia / Ukraine headlines, although the latter may not be getting the ratings it once was. A couple of weeks ago every article on the front page of the Wall Street Journal was related to Ukraine. Now, not so much. America is numb to it.

 

[tsptalk]

Oil is down $1, stocks up. I think I'm seeing a pattern here. :scratchchin:

 

[tsptalk]

Large caps are up modestly this morning, flirting with a breakout of that key moving average. Small caps are down.

The 10-year yield is flying to new highs again this morning. 2.5% isn't scaring the market? Not yet, anyway.

Oil is down so the algos are doing some buying in stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

Oil just went positive, S&P 500 negative. There's that pattern again. :cheesy:

 

[tsptalk]

A sharp drop in oil prices (down to 105.50) has stocks mixed with the Dow and small caps lagging and down to start the day, the S&P 500 up slightly, and the Nasdaq up almost 1%.

The 10-year treasury yield has pulled back a bit from Friday's highs. Currently 2.46%

 

[tsptalk]

Now I see. Oil is down, gold and silver are down, stocks are struggling -- but the dollar gapped up. I don't know why it's so strong, but I see why there's pricing pressure.

 

[tsptalk]

This rally seems to be about oil, which fell below $100 briefly this morning, but it is bouncing off the support line.

This had stocks gap up, then pull back.

Turnaround Tuesday, or just filling in the opening gap?

 

[tsptalk]

It could be an interesting close today as the S&P trades right between the highs and lows of the day. Oil is bouncing back from early losses, which the market is watching closely.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are down a bit, as is the dollar.

I never understand why the dollar does what it does on any given day, but the chart now has a big bull flag on it. Why would the dollar break to new high on an inflationary environment?

Oil is rallying and that may be why stocks stopped going up for a minute.