tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Some upside follow through this morning to yesterday's reversal. Under normal bull market conditions, these gap and go type of rallies off of lows tend to run for some time. We've been in more of a bearish environment so we'll have to see if this push higher has any legs or staying power.

Small caps are lagging a bit.

The VIX has pulled back under 30 and it's testing some rising support.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are tanking and bonds (F-fund broke above one stubborn channel, and is up against one more level of resistance. Are inflation concerns become economic concerns?

Stocks are up with small caps leading so far this morning. The I-fund seems to be lagging and the dollar is up so that doesn't help it.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, a dramatic drop in yields in the last two days despite the Fed's imminent rate hikes. Someone is worried about the economy. The F-fund is up about 0.37% right now.

 

[tsptalk]

Possible bull flags forming, but they are below resistance and still part of the downtrend.

The yields on the 10-year is bouncing back as the Fed reiterates need for rate hikes. Two open gaps above.

 

[tsptalk]

The recent consolidation is testing the 200-day average on the S&P 500 again today, while small caps are pulling back early from what looks like a possible flat top, but it could also be considered a bullish flag. In this down trending market however, resistance will try to fight off a bull flag breakout.

Bonds are slipping as yields move slightly higher to start the day.

 

[tsptalk]

Gold, silver and oil are all flying to new highs this morning as the fear trade is on, while bitcoin flips over again, failing to make a higher high. Speculation (risk) is off.

 

[tsptalk]

A nice little positive reversal right now, but it's early and there's so much resistance. I'm not convinced. If it rallies into the close, that will be different.

 

[tsptalk]

You can't always trust the Sunday night futures to hold into Monday's open, but this looks serious.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 

[tsptalk]

Much improvement with talks of a ceasefire and oil well off the overnight highs , but once that opening bell rings, there will be people happy to get out at this price after watching the futures last night. The close may be a different story as pessimism gets extreme.

You can't always trust the Sunday night futures to hold into Monday's open, but this looks serious.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/06/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

 

[tsptalk]

Early action:

Stocks near overnight futures lows again.
Yields are up modestly.
The High Yield Corporate bonds are still trending lower.
The dollar is moving higher.
Bed Bath and Beyond is up 50%?
Oil is $119

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks have been choppy this morning in front of President Biden's announcement of banning Russian energy.

Yields are up, the dollar is down slightly.

Small caps are flat while the S&P is down modestly but it's very volatile and gyrating quite a bit.

The VIX is near 37. High yield corp. bonds are flat.

 

[sniper]

Gold and oil is where it "be at" right now Wish the TSP had a fund for gold / silver

 

[tsptalk]

I had written a long post about this, but I lost it so here's the pictures and you'll get the idea.

Bottom line: Things that had been up are pulling back, and things that had been down are catching a bid.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 is digesting yesterday's outlier day but obviously the bulls would prefer to have seen some follow through. Not the best action but there's a lot of time left for the bulls to make something of this. Otherwise, if the bulls don't take advantage of yesterday's reversal, the bears will continue to chip away.

A closer look shows a couple of stealth open gaps that may get some attention.

Gap A is between the March 3 close and the March 4 high.
Gap B is the close on the 8th up to the open and low on the 9th.

Yields are up nearing the recent highs.

 

[tsptalk]

More consolidation of Wednesday's gains as the battle between the bulls and bears continues.

Oil is up a bit after the big sell off.

 

[tsptalk]

Large caps start to day outperforming small caps and Tech. The I fund is leading with a pullback in the dollar...

The Dow Transportation Index looks interesting a it attempts to break above the neckline of its inverted head and shoulders pattern.

View attachment 53681

 

[quabit]

Large caps start to day outperforming small caps and Tech. The I fund is leading with a pullback in the dollar...

The Dow Transportation Index looks interesting a it attempts to break above the neckline of its inverted head and shoulders pattern.

View attachment 53681

I am wondering if we may be headed to fill the gap on the weekly chart for the SPY. That gap is from the last week of March 21 to 1st week of Apr. I know not all gaps get filled but I thought it was strange/rare to have one on the weekly chart. Maybe I'm wrong but even on a weekly basis there wasn't a gap left from COVID run up. Its 17 points away as of today now that we are dropping this afternoon. Maybe not but something keep an eye on I guess.

 

[tsptalk]

The action is good but so far the S&P and S-fund (dwcpf) are just trading within Monday's range. A move above yesterday's high would be meaningful.

 

[tsptalk]

This morning's catalyst seems to be the price of oil falling, but now it's at the highs of the day and back above the 50 day EMA. Still down, but trying to fill that gap.

 

[Bullitt]

Wheat also getting hit today but for how long. Oil and wheat are both reminding me of the lumber charts in 2020 when we saw a near 50% crash in to 2021 only to see prices up 300% into summer. (Lumber had another massive crash into fall 2021 but regained half those losses already.)