tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

It took a few minutes but the follow through to Friday's reversal is kicking in. This was overdue but the jury is still out on whether this is forming a bottom. This could easily be just a relief rally and as always, there are good arguments why each side of that argument could be right. Keep an open mind that either could happen. Unfortunately, because of our limited IFT structure, being wrong can be costly since we can't simply bounce back and forth as much as we want.

The 10-year yield and the dollar are down to start the day. What is keeping the dollar up in this environment?

 

[tsptalk]

The rebound in stocks has run into some stalling this morning, but the S&P is already 7% above last week's lows. can the rally continue or does it need a break?

Yields are up after a weak open, and the dollar seems to be breaking down after the failed, Fed fueled, breakout last week.

 

[tsptalk]

A good open for stocks after some strong earnings out of Google, but outside of tech we are seeing some weakness and failures at some moving averages in the charts.

The dollar is down again and this morning it fell below its 50-day EMA.

The yield on the 10-year is also down after some much weaker than expected employment data.

08:15 ET: ADP Employment Change
For: Jan
Actual: -301K
B.com Forecast: 125K
B.com Cons: 220K
Prior: 776K
Revised From: 807K

 

[Bullitt]

All together, it looks like the beginnings of lower highs in stocks, but yields can't go much higher without causing bigger problems.

How much longer can everyone keep blaming Omicron? Even PayPal tried to use it as an excuse for poor earnings, but investors aren't having it. (-25% for the day)

 

[robo]

All together, it looks like the beginnings of lower highs in stocks, but yields can't go much higher without causing bigger problems.

How much longer can everyone keep blaming Omicron? Even PayPal tried to use it as an excuse for poor earnings, but investors aren't having it. (-25% for the day)

This is a different market from last year, and looks very weak to me!

 

[bmneveu]

How much longer can everyone keep blaming Omicron? Even PayPal tried to use it as an excuse for poor earnings, but investors aren't having it. (-25% for the day)

I wonder how they tried to spin that excuse. They are a payment system that is online, mobile, from home, contactless, etc. You'd think Omicron would boost their revenue, not lower it.

 

[Bullitt]

Omicron

From the CEO's prepared remarks, but yeah, it's a stretch when you're just buying stuff online. Markets clearly weren't having it as it was down 25% in one day after already being down 45% since the peak.

The impact of Omicron and the effect of inflationary prices, combined with lack of stimulus is having an impact on spending, and by extension, our business. This impact is most pronounced on our lower income cohorts and has continued into the first quarter. The persistence of inflationary effects on personal consumption, labor shortages, supply chain issues and weaker consumer sentiment have led us to adopt a more cautious outlook.

Rising threats from COVID variants cut travel and event bookings, and the elimination of government stimulus had an impact as well.

 

[tsptalk]

Facebook is triggering selling today, although the broader market actually struggled yesterday as well, but Alphabet (Google) boosted the indices. The decline on the chart looks like nothing, reminding us how powerful that relief rally was.

Yields are not helping as tech / growth stocks are negatively impacted, and the 10-year looks poise to breakout of its bull flag.

The dollar is down for a 5th straight day. My question is, why was it up before that? Until the Fed actually starts tightening, inflation is going to get worse.

 

[tsptalk]

The yoyo continues as Amazon and Snap sky rocket after hours pushing the futures up significantly. Amazon is up $500 a share as I write this. Snap is up 42% !

It's nice to know that the U.S. markets are determined by about half dozen stocks. The bear market outside of those stocks is going almost unnoticed by the indices and the media that follow the indices.

Stability is not the word of the day.

Jobs report in the morning. Keep those seat belts on!

 

[retread]

How sad is it that our market is so fragile that one company (APPL) sends it soaring one week and another company )FB) sends it down the next. With our limited moves per month there is no way to react to this. I've been mostly G in my real TSP since mid Jan waiting for all this volatility to calm down. I'm hoping sometime after March when the Fed gets on with their shennanigans.

 

[cmil1212]

Amazon’s operating income, which did not reflect the increased value of the Rivian stake, was cut nearly in half, to $3.5 billion, from $6.9 billion the fourth quarter of last year, providing a more telling view of the state of the company’s business.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[tsptalk]

The 10-year yield and the dollar are relatively flat this morning.

Stocks are getting a minor to modest bounce, depending on the index.

The S&P 500 (C) and EFA (I fund) are still below resistance and the S-fund is back up testing the its 20-day EMA but it has poked its head above some resistance so far this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

It could be a mid day dip, but the early breakout above support has failed so far. Aren't you glad we had to make our decision about what to do, an hour ago? :suspicious:

The S&P 500 (C) and EFA (I fund) are still below resistance and the S-fund is back up testing the its 20-day EMA but it has poked its head above some resistance so far this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

A weak open brought in some buyers and morning gains, but we have seen some nasty closes over the last few trading sessions so it's hard to trust.

The 20-day EMAs are being tested again on the C and S fund charts.

The 10-year yield is up to new highs again, and the dollar is possibly looking to fill some overhead gaps.

 

[tsptalk]

We're seeing some of the indices breakout to the upside from bull flags. The S&P 500 is currently challenging a moving average (purple), which had been support for so long, and could now try to act as resistance.

The small caps made a clear breakout above its bull flag.

The Transports are now up against some tough resistance with today's big rally. Big pivot point.

The dollar is consolidating near recent lows and within an old open gap. It's starting to look like a bear flag so we could see a breakdown soon.

 

[robo]

The FOMO crowd should give stocks another spike soon.... We should get the half cycle low during the last few weeks of this month. We are currently on day 12.

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like the CPI is a stark reminder to people that we're dealing with inflation. The S&P futures went from positive, to losing all of yesterday's big gains.

The open gap may get filled right away. Will people buy it?

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar and the yield on the 10-year are popping at the opening bell following the hot CPI number.

One gaps filled, another open on the UUP.

The 10-year hit 2.0% at the open

 

[bmneveu]

That dip was bought up quick!

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar and the yield on the 10-year are popping at the opening bell following the hot CPI number.

One gap filled, another open on the UUP.

What a turnaround for the dollar after gapping up. Is this the start of the dollar melt down?