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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
Well time to close that gap on $DWCPF and stable a base at 2075?The dollar is getting hit this morning (filling in a small open gap), and yields have pulled back a bit as bonds are due for at least a little relief rally off the double bottom.
The small caps index is trying to hold onto that 200 day average as support, with an open gap waiting in the wings if it breaks...
- Reaction score
- 2,398
Yields are moving higher again, but stocks got a little oversold in the short term. We could see some relief rallies but I doubt the pullback is over -- or at least we'll see some chopping near the recent lows as opposed to a "V" bottom.
The 50-day EMA was taken out in each of the prior pullbacks, and it hasn't happened yet.
Small caps may be trying to carve out a low here, but that could also be a big bear flag, and if that breaks down, the downside target would be... UGLY.
The 50-day EMA was taken out in each of the prior pullbacks, and it hasn't happened yet.
Small caps may be trying to carve out a low here, but that could also be a big bear flag, and if that breaks down, the downside target would be... UGLY.
- Reaction score
- 2,398
This was from one of my market commentaries from late December.
This is not a prediction, but one year that stands out as having a similar look to this current situation may be December of 1999. Someone in our forum pointed this out (exnavyew) the other day and it got my attention. It was an article on Yahoo.com that said...
"Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group." Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/
So, I looked at this year's chart of the S&P 500, and compared it to 1999's chart to see if there were similarities, and there were, so what happened next in 1999 - 2000?
There was a rally in the early part of the month of December 1999, followed by a mid-month swoon that took away most of those early gains, then a rally into the end of the year. I noticed a PMO indicator crossover on about the 23rd as it headed into the end of the month.
bmneveu
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 91
"Even though the Nasdaq Composite rose 85.6% and the S&P 500 rose 19.5% in 1999, more stocks fell in value than rose in value as investors sold stocks in slower growing companies to invest in Internet stocks."
The NASDAQ would peak on March 10th 2000, and not fully bottom out until 2.5 years later in October 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
The NASDAQ would peak on March 10th 2000, and not fully bottom out until 2.5 years later in October 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
- Reaction score
- 2,398
You would have thought the weaker than expected jobs report (199K vs. 440K est.) would ease yields, but they are up initially again this morning. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected to 3.9%, and wages were up more than expected as well. Sounds positive but that may be a concern and considered inflationary.
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 815
There has also been a report about a new variant...IHU. First case found in California within last day or two. IHU was First identified in France in November with mild respiratory symptoms and total of 12. No serious complications have been reported and it us being downplayed by WHO.
Also, something called Flurona in LA. There are talks about moving Superbowl out of LA.
No idea if these variants are affecting market.
I did hear report this morning that 10-year Treasury rate has moved up to 1.78. Now that would move market.
Also, something called Flurona in LA. There are talks about moving Superbowl out of LA.
No idea if these variants are affecting market.
I did hear report this morning that 10-year Treasury rate has moved up to 1.78. Now that would move market.
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 815
oh... Just heard "flurona" is a mix of flu and Corona Wuhan virus...hummm...
- Reaction score
- 2,398
Yields are making their move again this morning. I'm surprised this rally took so long. The dollar is also up, but its already lost about half of its morning gains.
Stocks are getting smacked as the S&P (C-fund) is looking for support at the bottom of that channel.
And small caps made a lower low in perhaps a run at the stops below the prior lows.
Stocks are getting smacked as the S&P (C-fund) is looking for support at the bottom of that channel.
And small caps made a lower low in perhaps a run at the stops below the prior lows.
- Reaction score
- 2,398
Monday's big rally off the lows is being digested this morning. Modest to moderate losses are pushing the S&P and small caps index back below some key moving averages while Fed chair Powell testifies in congress.
Yields are up, and the dollar is down and continues to trade in a tight range above support.
Yields are up, and the dollar is down and continues to trade in a tight range above support.
- Reaction score
- 2,398
Stocks move higher in the early action. The S&P and small caps are up about 0.6%, while the I-fund, thanks to another decline in the dollar is leading and up closer to 0.8%.
The 10-year yield is down again, but te 1.7% area could try to hold as support after filling in that small open gap.
The dollar has finally broken down. With inflation being such an issue, this seems like it has been a long time coming, but the Fed's measures had kept it buoyant for a while.
The 10-year yield is down again, but te 1.7% area could try to hold as support after filling in that small open gap.
The dollar has finally broken down. With inflation being such an issue, this seems like it has been a long time coming, but the Fed's measures had kept it buoyant for a while.
- Reaction score
- 2,398
An opening rally started to fade, which isn't too unusual to start a day, but right now the C and S funds are testing some pretty important support.
The dollar is down again after the PPI report, although so far today we aren't seeing commodity prices moving up like we have been.
The dollar is down again after the PPI report, although so far today we aren't seeing commodity prices moving up like we have been.
- Reaction score
- 2,398
Yields are popping higher to start the new week an that is putting pressure on stocks and bonds. The dollar is also rising this morning, but it is testing the 50-day EMA, which could now act as resistance after holding as support during its rally.
The S&P is testing a moving average that has been holding in recent months.
Small caps are trying to hold on to the recent lows.
The S&P is testing a moving average that has been holding in recent months.
Small caps are trying to hold on to the recent lows.
- Reaction score
- 2,398
Yields and the dollar are down helping prices this morning. The dollar is back below that 50-day EMA after the two day rally.
Stocks are good with the drop in both of those above, but the character of the market has changed such that rallies are being sold quickly. They won't go straight down however, so we should see some rallied here and there. The S&P 500 is trying to get back above that short-term support line.
Stocks are good with the drop in both of those above, but the character of the market has changed such that rallies are being sold quickly. They won't go straight down however, so we should see some rallied here and there. The S&P 500 is trying to get back above that short-term support line.
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