tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

A stronger than expected jobless claims report is helping stocks rebound from its recent sell off. We see big gains in the C-fund and especially the S-fund, which is up 2% in the early trading.

Yields are ticking higher, which has been the issue of late, so it will be interesting to see if stocks can hold onto those gains, if yields hold.

 

[tsptalk]

The selling continues and the S&P 500 is now testing its 200 day averages.

Small caps have now given up all of 2021s gains.

The yield on the 10-year is pulling back. It opened a gap while filling another. 1.7% could be support.

The dollar quickly lost Thursday's gains today.

 

[tsptalk]

Mom and pop are selling this morning and it looks a little panicky.

The metals are interesting with gold up slightly, silver down sharply, while bitcoin and the other crptos continue to get crushed.

Yields are down and the dollar is up sharply.

Rough start to the new week, but look for a sharp snap back rally to start fairly soon. The charts have a lot of damage so rallies may not last more than a few days when they come.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like a margin call Monday. Selling could dry up this afternoon setting up a turnaround Tuesday, unless something is going on that we don't know about, which wouldn't be a first.

I wish we could see what the politicians are doing in their accounts today.

Potential targets.

 

[tsptalk]

Talk about kangaroo tail reversals...

 

[weatherweenie]

Somewhere, Birchtree is smiling.

Talk about kangaroo tail reversals...

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar and 10-year yields are up, but off the morning highs. Stocks are digesting Monday's big range / reversal.

That was quite a 200 rally off the lows yesterday, so a little backing and filling, digestion, maybe even profit taking from some who may bought Monday's lows, is going on now. The high volume reversal however should provide good support, although a test of that low is never out of the question.

FOMC meeting tomorrow...

The Fed is likely to signal a March interest rate hike and that further policy tightening is coming

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html

 

[tsptalk]

https://stockcharts.com/


403 Forbidden


Hope it's just temporary.

 

[tsptalk]

This site says stockchart.com is up? https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/stockcharts.com.html

Anyone else getting the 403 error?

https://stockcharts.com/


403 Forbidden


Hope it's just temporary.

 

[tsptalk]

This site says stockchart.com is up? https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/stockcharts.com.html

Anyone else getting the 403 error?

Never mind. I turned my VPN off and it came up.

 

[bmneveu]

Certainly looks like that candlestick wick is correctly predicting a big turnaround today, but let's see how well these morning gains hold up over the course of the day. We've seen afternoons go in the opposite direction as the morning a lot lately.

 

[bmneveu]

Somewhere, Birchtree is smiling.

I went snooping... found his account profile here, and it says his last activity was: 08-17-2021 02:45 PM

So even if he isn't posting, he's still checking up on us!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Wow...that is great to know. :smile: Wish Birchtree would start posting again.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are giving back some of those big morning gains as the Fed decision gets closer. The 200-day EMA is trying to hold after the pop above it earlier, but once the Fed announcement is made, support and resistance may be invisible for about an hour as day traders try to take each other's money.

The small caps chart is very broken but there's a lot of room to roam within that wide channel.

More strength in the dollar is holding back the I-fund some, but European markets were up big this morning.

The 10-year yield is flat and the dollar is up.

 

[tsptalk]

Stock futures were down very sharply overnight, but reversed before the opening bell and we had a strong open. We're seeing some selling of that rally as I write this, but the indices are basically trading within their recent wide trading ranges. A big rally in the dollar is putting pressure on commodities, and stocks in general, and particularly the I-fund.

Silver, gold and bitcoin are not participating in this morning's stock market rally because of the dollar.

The I-fund is also feeling the pressure despite green indices in Europe. Japan's Nikkei was down hard last night in sympathy with the sell off in U.S. stocks after the Fed yesterday.

 

[tsptalk]

The S-fund is flirting with a test of the lows. Being down 24% from its highs already, it really needs to hold. Or, at the most, a breakdown that goes after the stops below Monday's lows, then reversal.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are acting sluggish despite Apple's strong earnings release. Small caps are testing the lows right now and briefly made a lower low.

The yield on the 10-year is pulling for a 2nd day, but the chart remains in a bullish looking flag suggesting higher yields next month.

The dolar is down slightly but holding onto most of Thursday's big gains.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P has closed below the 200-day EMA for three straight days. Currently 4366, a close above 4398 would be encouraging for the bulls. Once you get to 5 or more closes below the average, the bears may start to get more emboldened.

Although any close above 4328 keeps the weekly chart happy.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P has closed below the 200-day EMA for three straight days. Currently 4366, a close above 4398 would be encouraging for the bulls. Once you get to 5 or more closes below the average, the bears may start to get more emboldened.

Boom! 4432

We hadn't seen a big gain on a Friday since December 10.