tsptalk's Market Talk

HYG is a good barometer for the credit market which the stock market pays very close attention to. It may be trying to form a bull flag, but so far has stalled after filling that open gap.

This is not what the bulls wanted to see...

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Once again, this may be the chart to watch. It's still positive but it has pulled back after nearly filling that open gap. A negative close would not be a good sign at all for stocks.

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This 1.9% rally in HYG is a huge move for this ETF but you can see that it isn't making much of a dent in this volatility beaten chart. The question is whether this bull flag is a sign of a low in this bear market. This is key for the health of the credit market and the stock market.

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IBD calling today a follow through day in Nasdaq. 4/2 was their official call for the DJIA and S&P 500 uptrend, though I'd say today is more in line with a true follow through day.

Problem with CANSLIM investing is not too many breakout candidates amidst the rubble... yet.

April 6 - IBD upgraded the official stock market outlook from market in correction to market uptrend after a fresh follow-through day signal occurred last Thursday. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 7.7% higher. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq close up 7.3% and the S&P 500 closed up 7%. Volume traded was sharply higher on both major exchanges — a bullish sign.
 
Whatever the Fed did, the credit market sure liked it, but HYG is stalling some at the 200-day EMA after filling another open gap.
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Today's rally is an emotional one, triggered by the news of a possible remedy for the virus. Technically analysis-wise, it's a moment of truth for the S&P 500. In 2008 (the 2nd chart) showed several mini breaches of the 50 day EMA (or 200 EMA) that turned out to be fake-outs. A breakout above them is the green light I'd be waiting for but I also have an unofficial 3 to 5 day confirmation rule where any breakout has to hold that long before I trust it. That's where we are now.

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So far this morning's weakness is just filling in Friday's open gap. The 50-day EMA is also right there. 2800 looks key.

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A few interesting charts today...

The 10-year yield fell below the support line. If it holds it would be the 2nd lowest close ever.

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Despite the free fall in oil prices, the XLE energy sector ETF is holding up surprisingly well.

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The high yield bond ETF broke below that bullish looking flag (blue) and that is helping fill the large gap from earlier this month.

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Thinking HYG (and JNK) is part of the oil patch horror.

Still holding up well, maybe just filling a gap here. If it breaks down it would surely indicate lost confidence in the bonds of oil companies.
 
Thinking HYG (and JNK) is part of the oil patch horror.

Still holding up well, maybe just filling a gap here. If it breaks down it would surely indicate lost confidence in the bonds of oil companies.

Sure enough - oil up, stocks up, credit up.

A small gap opened on Monday is being filled today. Still below the 50-day EMA and the larger gap hasn't been filled yet.

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This about sums up the market... MGM's stock is up about 10% today and their casino are not even open.


OK. I'm busted. It was me. I just put $5,000 into MGM. I'm going to try to make some of the money back they've taken from me over the years.
 
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