tsptalk's Market Talk

Ah..yes that makes sense. Humm...that would be a dangerous game to play in expecting a Monday I-fund bounce, especially with so much that could happen over the weekend! But wow that would be awesome if it worked...exit S or C fund and enter I-fund Friday so you get the Friday bounce and then hope for bounce on Monday and exit!! Very interesting!!! ...but the rise occurred after our noon cutoff... and most right at the end of day....still...that would be quite a move.

Thanks for the explanation Tom!! :D :D. :D !!!
 
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Bond yields...

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The Nasdaq is holding up a little better than the other indices with Amazon and Netflix actually rallying early today. Small consolation, but I'm looking for any signs of stability. Not much out there yet. Small caps are lagging and the dollar is popping again, not helping the I-fund.
 
Tom, could you or someone else explain what is going on with the S-Fund? Usually it falls somewhere between the S&P and the Russell. Lately it has been lagging both. What part of the market does it track that could be responsible for this lag? As of 11am today, for example, the DWCPF is down 7.8% while the Russell is down 6.3% and the S&P is down 5.5%. I understand the S-Fund can be more volatile than the C-Fund, but I guess I am trying to understand why.

Many thanks!
 
Tom, could you or someone else explain what is going on with the S-Fund? Usually it falls somewhere between the S&P and the Russell. Lately it has been lagging both. What part of the market does it track that could be responsible for this lag? As of 11am today, for example, the DWCPF is down 7.8% while the Russell is down 6.3% and the S&P is down 5.5%. I understand the S-Fund can be more volatile than the C-Fund, but I guess I am trying to understand why.

Many thanks!

Not Tom but I think I have the answer for this. The S Fund tracks the Wilshire 4500, which I believe is 4500 companies excluding the S&P 500. So, it tracks the mid, small, and micro cap companies. So the Russell 2000 is included in the Wilshire 4500, but its only 2000 of 4500.

The C Fund is essentially the S&P 500 in my mind.

Dividend payments and management expenses can push returns around a tiny bit as well.
 
There are a lot of small banks and oil related companies in the Wilshire 4500 and those are being hit particularly hard. Plus they don;t have any of the large tech FANG type stocks, so there are some hindrances without the large tech propping it up like the S&P 500.
 
REITs getting absolutely hammered today. AGNC down 27%, NLY down 30%.... just today.

Hmm, is that related to the better-than-expected housing starts report this morning? Are housing starts (and mortgage rates?) inversely related to REIT performance? I could see that having a relatively strong correlation.
 
The S Fund tracks the Wilshire 4500

REITs getting absolutely hammered today. AGNC down 27%, NLY down 30%.... just today.

There are a lot of small banks and oil related companies in the Wilshire 4500 and those are being hit particularly hard. Plus they don;t have any of the large tech FANG type stocks, so there are some hindrances without the large tech propping it up like the S&P 500.

Thank you all! I really appreciate the clarification! :biggthumpup:
 
Hmm, is that related to the better-than-expected housing starts report this morning? Are housing starts (and mortgage rates?) inversely related to REIT performance? I could see that having a relatively strong correlation.

Ohhhh I just heard Trump say all foreclosures and evictions are suspended until further notice. Yep, that'll do it.
 
Ohhhh I just heard Trump say all foreclosures and evictions are suspended until further notice. Yep, that'll do it.


https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/sheriff-cureton-suspends-evictions-bergen-county/

Sheriff Anthony Cureton announces the suspension of all evictions by the Bergen County Sheriff’s Office until further notice as the County and State continue to grapple with the COVID-19 health crisis.
This order follows recent measures taken by Governor Murphy and County Executive Tedesco urging residents to work from home and practice social distancing.


 
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[TD]NYSE to temporarily close trading floor, move to electronic trading because of coronavirus

Source: CNBC

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

New York Stock Exchange said Wednesday that it will temporarily close its trading floor and move to electronic trading due to the coronavirus pandemic.

All-electronic trading will begin with Monday’s market open. The facilities to be closed comprise the NYSE equities trading floor in New York, NYSE American Options trading floor in New York, and NYSE Arca Options trading floor in San Francisco. The decision to temporarily close the trading floors represents a precautionary step to protect the health and well-being of employees and the floor community in response to COVID-19.
“NYSE’s trading floors provide unique value to issuers and investors, but our markets are fully capable of operating in an all-electronic fashion to serve all participants, and we will proceed in that manner until we can re-open our trading floors to our members,” said Stacey Cunningham, President of the New York Stock Exchange. “While we are taking the precautionary step of closing the trading floors, we continue to firmly believe the markets should remain open and accessible to investors. All NYSE markets will continue to operate under normal trading hours despite the closure of the trading floors.”

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/nys...lectronic-trading-because-of-coronavirus.html[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD]NYSE to temporarily close trading floor, move to electronic trading because of coronavirus

Source: CNBC

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

New York Stock Exchange said Wednesday that it will temporarily close its trading floor and move to electronic trading due to the coronavirus pandemic.

All-electronic trading will begin with Monday’s market open. The facilities to be closed comprise the NYSE equities trading floor in New York, NYSE American Options trading floor in New York, and NYSE Arca Options trading floor in San Francisco. The decision to temporarily close the trading floors represents a precautionary step to protect the health and well-being of employees and the floor community in response to COVID-19.
“NYSE’s trading floors provide unique value to issuers and investors, but our markets are fully capable of operating in an all-electronic fashion to serve all participants, and we will proceed in that manner until we can re-open our trading floors to our members,” said Stacey Cunningham, President of the New York Stock Exchange. “While we are taking the precautionary step of closing the trading floors, we continue to firmly believe the markets should remain open and accessible to investors. All NYSE markets will continue to operate under normal trading hours despite the closure of the trading floors.”

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/nys...lectronic-trading-because-of-coronavirus.html[/TD]
[/TR]
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I wonder how this will affect volume and liquidity? I imagine most of that comes from electronic trading these days anyway.
 
Bear flag. Helicopter money coming soon.

I was wrong about the bear flag. Big squeeze yesterday broke out of channel.

Whether this is inflationary or not remains to be seen. I tend to think this whole thing to include the oil wars, will be deflationary.

Sentiment favors a massive equity rally very soon. People will soon be panic buying what they panic sold the past week.
 
What a roller-coaster today. Time to hit the driving range again to get my eyes off the quote board for a while. :hypnotized:

I expect to see a lot of green numbers when I get back, so don't mess it up. :D
 
I'm just going to say it-

Stop looking at every small new, unexpected glitch in the data. START looking at the big picture.

WE are now seeing things we have never seen before, that make the 1929 Crash look like a small deal by comparison.

What we are about to see is a HUGE adverse impact on the economy, so great they have suspended housing foreclosures for a year. Think about what it takes for them to decide that is a good idea.

I'm in G, and staying there for a while. Don't be confused by a day of green. We're in serious trouble now.
 
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