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It's a head scratcher to me how Apple could be near all time highs in this environment, but today it's losing steam making a possible double top.

Also, the Naz 100 is lagging as those large tech stocks are stalling after the initial morning rally. Exhaustion?

052620a.gif
 
Another interesting day for the Naz 100. Up at the open, it plummets midday - all the way to the bottom of that trading channel, before the bulls step right up again...

052720a.gif
 
Hi Tom,

I was wondering if you had any thoughts on where were are at in the psychologic aspects of the trading cycle. This market is so hard to understand. The Fear and Greed index is now above 50, in the midst of a slow climb, now entering into greed territory. Do you feel there is a FOMO sentiment growing? What is the smart money doing? LOL...I guess I need to sign up for your service. I was 50G 25C 25S and exited to 100G today. There are so may gaps behind us and I worry the fallout from the pandemic is not yet fully realized.

Geno
 
Geno-

I've been very wrong about this bounce. I thought it would be a dead cat and eventual test of the lows. Not to be.

The 50 (now 54) in the Fear / Greed Index is surprising and a good reason why the rally kept going. It probably means there is a lot of cash still on the sidelines.

I posted this in Thursday's commentary about the "insiders" who seem to be lost as well...

In my attempt to wrap my head around why the dumb money has been so rewarded in recent years, I went and found a chart of what company insiders are doing right now. I don't think it needs much explanation.

0528200220x.gif


This chart goes back to 2012 when this indicator's data begins, and possibly about the time when the dumb money was becoming the smartest investors in the world. You can see that something happened in 2014 to insiders, and it's oddly comforting to see that they seem as confused as I am. Apparently they see their own stocks as too pricey as well.

0528200220y.gif



One of the more obvious explanations is that the smart money, or big money, are expecting a pullback or a test of the lows, so they are sitting on the sidelines with a ton of cash, and cash is the ammunition for market rallies. The dumb money is basking in the rally and the smart money is left to chase, or wait. Chasing is rarely a good option, but it has worked for many over the last couple of months.
Click to expand...
 
The S&P 500 futures opened down about 50-points or 1.7%, now they're down 5. It's a wild ride already to start the new week / month.
 
30 million people out of work later, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX, large cap tech) just hit the February highs. How does that make sense? Are people still buying iphones and PC's with their unemployment money? Double top or breakout?

The Nasdaq Composite isn't quite there yet.

060420a.gif
 
I don't try to make sense of it anymore. Now I'm just under the assumption it will always be a bull market, because the Fed will always step in at any sign of weakness.
 
bmneveu said:
I don't try to make sense of it anymore. Now I'm just under the assumption it will always be a bull market, because the Fed will always step in at any sign of weakness.
Click to expand...


Yeah, but some point that will no longer work as inflation will eat us all alive. Countries in South America have demonstrated this many times over in my lifetime at least.
 
Here's a question I've had on my mind the last few days as I've been trying to reconcile having got out of the market after the first big (well, 2-3 %) pop after the bottom and having missed the entire rally since. I can't help but suspect the market is being manipulated by big money for political reasons. There's no doubt the markets had done really well under the Trump administration, so there's an incentive to help create a positive economic environment to enhance the chance of a second term. Or maybe big money is just pumping the market to seduce others to do the same in the hopes of getting back to the highs and rallying beyond.

So my question: how or what source(s) can I go to identify the share of equity purchases that is a result of big money investors (banks, financial institutions, corporations)? Is there a way to get a clear sense of this?

I've been sitting on the sideline largely because I don't trust this market but dearly want to start recovering some of my (and my wife's) retirement losses. But I'm afraid of losing even more at this point. I got out because we had hit a loss level that we set as the threshold at which our retirement plans would be financially at risk -- not catastrophic but certainly affecting perhaps some of the discretionary goals we had.

Can anyone help me with this? Also, is there a source for info on corporate buy-backs? Frankly, I don't want to follow big money as I don't fully trust it's concern for small investors.
 
Bullitt said:
MGM stock has seen massive insider buying since March 30 - mostly in the $10-$13 range.
Click to expand...

Some insiders sitting on 100% gains in a little more than a month. The biggest single purchase worth $12M occurred on 3/31. A good place to start is to follow what the board of directors at MGM do

Brings new meaning to 'the house always wins'.

mgm2.JPG
 
My wife bought MGM and Delta Airlines a month or so ago. Every time they went up I recommended to her to take the money and run. Did she listen? Thankfully, no. :35:
 
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