tsptalk's Market Talk

[weatherweenie]

Bargain shopping? I mentioned MGM when it was around $10. Of course, had I bought at $10, it would be $5, or less now.:smile:

This about sums up the market... MGM's stock is up about 10% today and their casino are not even open.

 

[Bullitt]

MGM stock has seen massive insider buying since March 30 - mostly in the $10-$13 range.

 

[tsptalk]

S&P making a beeline for the 200-day EMA...

 

[tsptalk]

Last time Google gapped up like this.

 

[Bullitt]

Massive upside volume in NYSE today edging on 90% upside day. The biggest volume is yet to come after the bots react to Fed statements.

 

[tsptalk]

A couple of charts that I follow suggest interesting pivot points.

Amazon has a great looking bull flag forming, except when you see what t did last time in this situation...

Gold (ultra) is also in a bull flag, filled some open gaps recently. The last one broke to the upside. There is still another open gap near 56 and could be the downside if this falls to the bottom of the flag again.

 

[tsptalk]

Not a prediction, just an observation. And we know once we recognize a pattern, it's usually over. But the first trading day of the last few months have been curve balls for the month. Whatever it did, the market ended the month in the opposite direction.

 

[tsptalk]

Both the S&P (C-fund) and the DWCPF (S-fund) fell through the 50-day EMA's then ran back up to test it.

 

[tsptalk]

One gap filled this morning, another opened.

 

[tsptalk]

They're going after Tuesday's open gap (red) today...

 

[Bullitt]

NDX heading for the corona crash gap. If this was a gold chart, everyone would be talking about that inverse H&S.

 

[tsptalk]

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin says downside risk is greater than upside risk

“Basically, all of the good and optimistic outlook is basically priced into the market today,” said Kostin. “So where the market’s trading now, I would say the asymmetry of upside [is] perhaps 2%, the downside maybe 15%.”

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/gol...ownside-risk-is-greater-than-upside-risk.html

 

[tsptalk]

The squeeze is on between the 200 day EMA, and the 20/50 days...

 

[tsptalk]

Another small gap filled (red). It's surprising to see so many gaps on the S&P 500 chart (all filled on this one month chart.)

There are still a few large opens gap on the chart - 1 above, 2 below that should eventually get filled. Days, weeks, months, years? Not sure, but eventually.

 

[tsptalk]

As mentioned in today's commentary, it's not unusual to see a big rebound days on the way down -- if today's rally even holds. The question is, is that what we're seeing today, or just another "buy the two-day dip?"

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps are outperforming nicely today, but the charts (Russell and dwcpf) still look troublesome.

 

[tsptalk]

Don't fight the Fed, or did the Fed just throw the S&P back up into resistance again to suck in more buyers?

On both the short and long term charts, the S&P is near the top of some trading ranges, an area where we've seen a lot of selling come in in recent months. If it keeps a knock'in someone may eventually let it in (break resistance) but it could be a trap. Given the current economic situation, it's tough to be too optimistic, but something interesting is happening here and many on Wall Street are confused and frustrated with this strength in stocks..

 

[exnavyew]

Lot of people addicted to 'hope-ium' it seems.

 

[tsptalk]

Giving up a 1/3 of the prior day's gains isn't much news, but it was interesting how quickly the indices fell near the close.

The key was that the 200-day EMA failed to hold for more than a day (for now), and the open gap from Monday may be a lure.

 

[tsptalk]

Bonds and gold up near new highs today. Why are the safety trades rallying on a day like today in stocks?