tsptalk's Market Talk

[JTH]

Meanwhile AGG has put in a lower low, and gapped...

View attachment 9944

 

[Birchtree]

Wouldn't it be nice to see 1086 on the close - all those lily padders will spin.

 

[tsptalk]

The gap was filled with authority!

Yeah, it had just filled the gap and held for a little while (so I bought more SDS :notrust, then the ISM came out and... boom! Rats!

This is that preholiday move that "should" be corrected next week.

 

[Boghie]

Yeah, it had just filled the gap and held for a little while (so I bought more SDS :notrust, then the ISM came out and... boom! Rats!

This is that preholiday move that "should" be corrected next week.

Tom,

I don't think so. I am thinking that da'Boyz ended their summer vacations a bit early and are chewing on the little folk. They can't make money in most mutual and pension funds running short. And, the market dumped 16%+.

They will be pumping and priming. Get the goobers back in and sell slow...

 

[tsptalk]

Tom,

I don't think so. I am thinking that da'Boyz ended their summer vacations a bit early and are chewing on the little folk. They can't make money in most mutual and pension funds running short. And, the market dumped 16%+.

They will be pumping and priming. Get the goobers back in and sell slow...

Volume was a little heavier than it has been but still light, so I don't know if everyone was on board.

You could be absolutely correct on this, but I have to avoid the emotional reaction and stick with my analysis that says, this could be the move to ~1100 that they end up selling after the holiday. (see today's commentary http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive/comments_9_1_10.html, esp. the 2007-2008 chart.)

I just can't trust it, yet. [Insert one of Nnuut's images with a trap door here.]

 

[crws]

considering AGG was down less than a quarter & rising into the close, and compared to the 27th, less than a week ago when it dropped .50+, I'd have to conclude this could be one of the set up and maintain days with the computer monkeys making the decisions.
To me, other than Aug. being a little more harsh, YOY summer to present looks quite similar.
Last year the summer gained 500 points, June 1 to now, this year we are almost perfectly flat including todays gain, as was noted by Boghie in anther post.

 

[JTH]

Excellent commentary Tom, you hit that one out of the partk! You're right, it's not worth wasting an IFT for a 15 point (after a 30 point) climb. It sucks to sit it out, but if you evaluate risk, I believe it's the right choice.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks, JTH!

 

[Warrenlm]

Any impact from this oil rig explosion?
http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=13089364

 

[tsptalk]

Sounds like it was not active and only 1 person was injured. Probably not much to it. The huuricane might be another story.

I still think this is the pre-holiday games / fakeout being played and it will be given back next week.

 

[JTH]

Here's a market outlook for ya, any thoughts?
From https://longwavedynamics.com/
View attachment 9954

 

[tsptalk]

It's not registering with my brain. Too big. A cycle from 1949 to 2012?

 

[JTH]

YTD Daily chart showing just how low volume has been.

View attachment 9961

 

[Birchtree]

Let's see if we can tag SPX 1120 on the close - that would really shake things up for next week - it'll be get me in at any price once we get past 1222.

 

[Scout333]

Interesting market viewpoint from Annaly Cap. Mgt. newsletter for this month.

The Markets
August was miserable unless you owned bonds and gold. More to the point, we are struck by the fact that this would have been good advice to take a year ago. The persistence of a zero-interest-rate policy has brought down bond yields, along with the weakness in the economy and reduced inflation expectations. The price of gold is a mystery in this construct, as not only is inflation absent, but the dollar index is up versus a year ago. Is it a flight to safety or simple supply/demand characteristics?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...mbol=US:NLY&feed=BW&date=20100910&id=12028708

Will bonds continue to be strong due to low yields and high demand for safe? investments?

 

[tsptalk]

The price of gold is a mystery in this construct, as not only is inflation absent, but the dollar index is up versus a year ago. Is it a flight to safety or simple supply/demand characteristics?

It's up another $24 today.

I see that, "Bangladesh bought 10 tons of IMF gold at peak price" last week. India had bought 212 tons last year. They could be buying it for safety, but we'd hope that the price is being influenced by supply and demand, which is what markets all boil down to - until gov'ts step in.

 

[tsptalk]

Today's market rally was apparently triggered by David Tepper's bullish remarks this morning. Really? He has that kind of influence? I guess he made a good call at the bottom of the '09 market so everyone is following him.

My guess is the market is up in large part to the dollar being down almost 1% again today, and any juice they are getting from his remarks will be given back.

Resistance is just above on the long-term charts. Can the bulls do it? With the elections around the corner, anything is possible. Looks like the PMO gave a buy signal on the weekly chart.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[JTH]

Good eyes Tom, that's the way I'm seeing things too. I've been looking for an EOM turndate. Perhaps next month we'll get to scoop up some lower prices, maybe mid-next week. I'll be looking for 1130 support before the next push higher.

 

[FAB1]

This market is so toppy - gonna wait for it to fall back before buying more stock. Its not hurting me to play the F fund and <1% game, although I wished someone had told me at the end of Aug that Sept was going the be the best month of 2010 to date. I jumped in and out early on and had
no IFTs left to play with (thanks TSP board of crooked lying clowns)

Unexpected! :blink: