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crws said:
Keep your eye on the ball, Mr Jimmy!
Click to expand...

Not sure if that came across right- There are many topics buried in the threads, I just happened to stumble on that one in particular, then saw you mentioned a similar plan.
As far as the baseball analogy, this Reno-style "investment" market is a moving target, was what I was alluding to...
But hey! so you're a ball player! Excellent! :D
 
crws said:
Not sure if that came across right- There are many topics buried in the threads, I just happened to stumble on that one in particular, then saw you mentioned a similar plan.
As far as the baseball analogy, this Reno-style "investment" market is a moving target, was what I was alluding to...
But hey! so you're a ball player! Excellent! :D
Click to expand...
Came across just right crws. I was thankfull that you gave me the link. I noted that the LMBF thing has been going on for 2 years. I've seen the term several times, just came up with the same thing after looking at the tsp.gov fund performance bar charts. Guess I need visuals like that. People tell me LMBF and I think dyslexic, like "Mary had a little LMBF, who's fleece was white as snow". My dad always said I was dangerous but since I retired from mapping I don't think I'll be doing much harm no more. I sleep too late and get up too early. Anyway, I did play some baseball when I was a kid in the late 50's early sixties. And I did like the chicks that would come out to see us play. It was mostly other player's sisters but it was ok.:rolleyes: Man, everything is alright. Things have never been better. The check engine light on my car just went out after being on for a year. It went out by itself. I even think it'll stay off for the next 3 months till I get it emission inspected.

By the way. Between you and Intrepid and a little Birch and Coolhand, I think we'll do OK with this stock market stuff. Have a great weekend.
 
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It looks like the S&P filled the gap at some point on Wednesday, but the Nasdaq is still very open.
 
CSCO down 10%. I wonder what happened to all those outstanding market reports from earlier in the reporting period - specifically the ones from INTC, CMI, CAT.

Fellas, when do we start to look short? A tap of the 50 DMA?
 
Part of the reason CSCO is down so hard is because they are providing financing to their customers-who are way way behind on paying them back. Some bigname tech companies crashed awhile back, doing the same thing. I was thinking about buying some CSCO recently, because in theory they are sitting on a lot of cash and have no debt. Think they won't blow up when the people in debt to them default? Venturing into stocks these days without doing due diligence or having only partial information on their inner balance sheet workings-is a fools game.
 
The market is always right. The players destroyed bank stocks well before the fallout came and right now CSCO is getting hit for the same reason. INTC reports blowout earnings and has been in a downtrend ever since. A high volume stock doesn't drop just because they have an order backlog. When CEO Chambers speaks he must speak like a politician because he has such sway in the market. 10% in one day! Reminds me of when GE got hammered down 10% in one day after a similar run-up in 2008.

The only hope for a long term stock is a dividend payer which CSCO is not.

Market outlook: The $SOX index continues to lead the way down, Smallcaps are getting blasted, Utilities are the only stocks going up and the bond market says deflation. SMH hasn't gone anywhere in 8 months. But, since I'm bearish and dumb money, that should be a reason to buy because it's contrarian to buy when people are gloomy. :sick:
 
Tomorrow should be the crash! Why? Because I decided to use an August IFT to go into the C-fund for one day. ;) :D In Wednesday. Out Thursday.

It could be trading suicide considering the Hindenburg Omen signal, but we look to be trying to have a turnaround Tuesday (although the early reversal is fading as I write this), and reversal days tend to give us a follow-through day.

Last week's sentiment survey had a bull to bear ratio of 0.79 to 1 and with the recent action, is probably even lower.

Looking for a very short-term reflexive relief rally.
 
Birchtree said:
You must be irrational - could be the meds are taking charge.
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Are you referring to the crash prediction (which was self-deprecating sarcasm) or the one day buy signal?

Oh, and, no meds today. First day since the surgery. Maybe I am having withdrawals. :)
 
Although it looks like we could see some upside follow-through on Thursday after Wednesday's reversal, I decided to stick with my "1-day in the C-fund" plan and got out for Thursday.

tsptalk said:
Tomorrow should be the crash! Why? Because I decided to use an August IFT to go into the C-fund for one day. ;) :D In Wednesday. Out Thursday.

It could be trading suicide considering the Hindenburg Omen signal, but we look to be trying to have a turnaround Tuesday (although the early reversal is fading as I write this), and reversal days tend to give us a follow-through day.

Last week's sentiment survey had a bull to bear ratio of 0.79 to 1 and with the recent action, is probably even lower.

Looking for a very short-term reflexive relief rally.
Click to expand...
 
Let's open up some discussion here. With the incredible onslaught of bad news since the May peak, we've tamped this market down -16% off the July bottom. In my book, I call that a shallow correction. We've tested 1040 3 times and my 2 day chart showed the last two times formed a tweezers doji. This isn't exactly the tweezers bottom I'd like to see, but prices did finish with a higher close, suggesting it's more bullish than bearish. The question then becomes, if we have put in the bottom, will the hard core bears get left out while we trickle upwards ever-so-slowly on light volume? Or perhaps we've establish a 1040-1084 trading range? I do agree the charts don't look good, but I also happen to believe most of the bad news is now priced in and we could be ready to tip this market over back to the bull's favor.

What do you think?

View attachment 9933
 
JTH said:
What do you think?
Click to expand...
Today's news from the Fed minutes and the consumer confidence were pretty good, so the market had a pretty good reason to rally. But it looks closed basically flat / mixed.

Friday's jobs report will be big, but as you said, this news may already be priced in.

Although my instincts, which are very bad, say we are due for a rebound, the S&P is looking over a precipice near the neckline of a huge bearish H&S pattern, and the trend is down so that is good enough for me to stay in cash for now.

I am encouraged by the very bearish sentiment, but that could go on for a couple of weeks before the market turns. It is not consistent. We've seen sharp rebounds right away when the bull/bear ratio goes below 0.50 to 1, and we have seen it take 2 to 3 weeks.

I have money in SDS (bearish ETF) but I also own some stocks that are acting well, so I have a little hedge. I also have a lot of cash (in my IRA), which is rare, because of the uncertainty. Also 100% G at the moment in the TSP.

What I don't want to see, which means it will likely happen, is the market breaking sharply one way, then quickly go back and break the other way. That will likely whipsaw many of us.
 
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