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I hadn't looked at the SPY chart to see that small open gap created on Tuesday. Yesterday's decline almost filled it, but any time we see a gap get filled it makes a little more sense why the market was drawn that way. The retail stocks were the excuse, as I mentioned in today's commentary, but the gap was likely the draw for the S&P. 206.40 would officially fill the gap.

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The H&S is just busting to make a move. The Fed minutes at 2:00 PM ET may help nudge it in one direction or the other....

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If the fed does a rate hike, i know the stock market will go down, but does that mean F fund goes down also since raised rates is bad for that also?
 
sniper said:
If the fed does a rate hike, i know the stock market will go down, but does that mean F fund goes down also since raised rates is bad for that also?
Click to expand...

It's usually the bond market that predicts what the Fed will do. In other words, if bonds are rallying, they expect no change from the Fed. But if the Fed does raise rates the initial reaction may be bad for bonds and the F-fund, but then it may become a safe haven again if stocks react negatively.
 
The 20-day EMA and short-term descending resistance line has so far held - but it's early. There is a new small open gap on the SPY, right at the 50-day EMA.

There may have been a false breakdown yesterday, but it needs to break to the upside here to confirm that. Remember, the H&S patterns can break either way since it could be a topping formation (usually when they are large) or it could be a continuation pattern as we talked about in our market commentaries, and the direction it would break would be the direction of the trend before the H&S formed.

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The DWCPF (S-fund) is popping its head above the 200-day EMA this morning. It's important, but it hasn't always held up recently.

052316a.gif
 
ISM report at 10 AM ET today

Fed's Beige Book comes out at 2 PM ET.

China's PMI weaker than expected.

Jobs report on Friday

All impacting the Fed's decision on rates later this month, June 14-15
 
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