tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Source: Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Rounding the Bubble's Edge - April 11, 2016

 

[alevin]

Been reading JH for years now. One of the many things I like about him, he thinks big-picture near and longterm both (which is good for us nearing-retirement types) and is good at explaining where he's coming from. he used to give a bit more information on his nearterm portfolio adjustments, I miss that.

 

[tsptalk]

The bounce in the dollar appears to be over. Gold is up on this, but oil is down 3% despite the weak dollar.

 

[mdaje1]

Feels good to save that much, hope to make it all the way to the TSP million club

 

[tsptalk]

Two different markets today. These are 15-minute charts of the futures. The first is the S&P futures, the 2nd is the Nasdaq...

The long red bar is today's market open....

...........

 

[tsptalk]

The QQQ is down about 1% today, but it did fill that overhead open gap from the first trading day of the year earlier this morning. Now there are three open gaps left. One just below 110. One near 113. And one down near 98.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P made a higher high over yesterday's range, but the bottom of the wedge is holding as resistance so far.

 

[tsptalk]

Apple, and a few other major companies, disappointed after the bell sending the Nasdaq futures lower.

The S&P 500 futures slipped, but not as much as an oil inventory report came up lower than expected after the bell, and the price of oil shot up about 80 cents a barrel.

 

[tsptalk]

Head test of the Nasdaq 100 head and shoulders may be failing here...

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Head test of the Nasdaq 100 head and shoulders may be failing here...

Just in time for sell in May and go away?

 

[tsptalk]

This Nasdaq 100 chart has me concerned as it closed back below the 200-day EMA for the first time since early March. After the bell however Amazon posted some great earnings and the stock shot up. that could help this QQQ tomorrow.

By the way, I just made $66 a share on AMZN in 14 minutes. I took a shot before the report and it worked out. If anyone else uses amazon.com as much as I do, I knew earnings, or at least sales, had to be good. I spend so much on the site that I am just breaking even with this trade.

 

[tsptalk]

The Nikkei was closed on Friday but opened down again on Monday after Thursday's sell off triggered by the "no change" from the BOJ.

 

[tsptalk]

The DWCPF (S-fund) fell below the 1000 and the 200-day EMA today, but if we look closely, it tried to fill that small open gap from April and found support.... so far.

 

[tsptalk]

The Japanese Nikkei had a modest rebound today, but the Shanghai Index (SSE) broke down to new 8-week low.

 

[shitepoke]

Tom-
how do the Japanese markets generally effect our market...

 

[tsptalk]

It depends. If China's economy is slowing down it will greatly impact the global economy, which is already growing at a very slow pace.

 

[tsptalk]

The Trannies are trying to crawl back after falling blow the 50 and 200-day EMA's last week. The April low has held so far.

 

[tsptalk]

An oil inventory report just came in way lower than expected sending the price of oil up, and stocks followed... so far.

 

[Khotso]

An oil inventory report just came in way lower than expected sending the price of oil up, and stocks followed... so far.

Oops! That didn't last long.

 

[tsptalk]

So far oil has held the gains from the inventory report, but stocks have given them back...